SPY on the last leg DOWN (of 2022)
The week has been nothing short of exciting and boring at the same time. See below...
On the left panel, the SPY weekly chart shows a likely continuation of the downtrend. Outstanding is the week's candle wick, not the candle body itself. As highlighted by the red ellipse, the week's candle closed slightly positive, but left a really long upper tail to indicate that there is a lot of downward momentum pushing. Given that it is a positive candle might just mitigate the bearish undertone, somewhat if at all.
Technical indicators are still bearish, if not slightly bearish.
Perhaps more interesting is the daily chart for the week, where the SPY gapped up and ended promisingly just above the named 1st critical resistance on a huge Tuesday follow through move, after a flip on Monday. Alas Wednesday was an immediate stall, instead of continuing the momentum (boring...). And Thursday really started the snowball rolling when an intraday break of the resistance failed, and it ended with a bearish candle with a top tail. Friday said it all with a gap down and an early intraday close of Tuesday's gap up opening. At a point on Friday, the critical support was breached, but the close was just a last minute recovery. The candlestick patterns are suggesting a weak support to breakdown potential, for a lower low yet again, and towards the 325 downside target. It is also possible that next week brings a bounce, but should end similarly to the down bias.
Just a mention that the TD Sequential Buy Setup started with Friday being the first candle. Not marked in the chart, but you can obviously see a (TD) flip.
Interestingly, this week's daily chart appeared to have yet another set of symmetrical projections, as outlined by the blue lines. The earlier two down moves were of equal time periods, as are the previous two bear rallies. Noted that the the magnitude of the September moves were slightly larger than previously. Having observed so, a projected continued downside move points to a downside target of 335.
This three wave pattern is within the last leg of the weekly three wave pattern (first posted in early August "Projection of a worst case scenario for SPY").
So far, the SPY has pretty much walked the path since, and appears to be on the last leg to complete the journey.
Watch the 362 critical support; just need a decisive breakdown, a prior stall bounce notwithstanding. Wait for it...
Downside target 325-335, end October 2022, still in range.
On the left panel, the SPY weekly chart shows a likely continuation of the downtrend. Outstanding is the week's candle wick, not the candle body itself. As highlighted by the red ellipse, the week's candle closed slightly positive, but left a really long upper tail to indicate that there is a lot of downward momentum pushing. Given that it is a positive candle might just mitigate the bearish undertone, somewhat if at all.
Technical indicators are still bearish, if not slightly bearish.
Perhaps more interesting is the daily chart for the week, where the SPY gapped up and ended promisingly just above the named 1st critical resistance on a huge Tuesday follow through move, after a flip on Monday. Alas Wednesday was an immediate stall, instead of continuing the momentum (boring...). And Thursday really started the snowball rolling when an intraday break of the resistance failed, and it ended with a bearish candle with a top tail. Friday said it all with a gap down and an early intraday close of Tuesday's gap up opening. At a point on Friday, the critical support was breached, but the close was just a last minute recovery. The candlestick patterns are suggesting a weak support to breakdown potential, for a lower low yet again, and towards the 325 downside target. It is also possible that next week brings a bounce, but should end similarly to the down bias.
Just a mention that the TD Sequential Buy Setup started with Friday being the first candle. Not marked in the chart, but you can obviously see a (TD) flip.
Interestingly, this week's daily chart appeared to have yet another set of symmetrical projections, as outlined by the blue lines. The earlier two down moves were of equal time periods, as are the previous two bear rallies. Noted that the the magnitude of the September moves were slightly larger than previously. Having observed so, a projected continued downside move points to a downside target of 335.
This three wave pattern is within the last leg of the weekly three wave pattern (first posted in early August "Projection of a worst case scenario for SPY").
So far, the SPY has pretty much walked the path since, and appears to be on the last leg to complete the journey.
Watch the 362 critical support; just need a decisive breakdown, a prior stall bounce notwithstanding. Wait for it...
Downside target 325-335, end October 2022, still in range.
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