Spy- Top finally In?
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The big moment of truth is finally before us. From these high levels, the next few years will be determined. Rejecting from here does not prove anything. Even, the bulls are looking for a healthy correction to regain the momentum for SPY to raise up like a cobra and strike (Ref: crypto legends). Now, we are "Melted Up" like crazy. In fact, a little too close to the sun, Icarus. I will be the first to admit that I really Expected a much quicker turnaround on this bounce, as I called it, "a dead cat bounce." This has gone above and beyond my expectations, which is a lesson about expectations about an organic, intractable, unpredictable, global market. This next few months will be our moment of truth. Personally, I am looking for a pullback to kick the scales back in balance. We have declining volume for a few weeks now, and overall declining volume since that fated Christmas day. Divergences that have been painfully grinding without release. Monthly RSI levels are at absolutely overdone levels (higher than the 08 and 00 Bear markets rallies, which only leads me to believe that if we get our bear market then it will be a real doozy.) All higher levels stochs overbought 2hr all the way to Weekly.
As you practice technical analysis you learn your style, your methods, risk tolerance and understand your own emotions better. I have also learned that when you have a confluence of technical factors 4+ different confluence you must go with that if you don't then what are you doing in this game. Emotions are a different beast. They are the second half of the war. From my previous posts, you can see the extremes that I have gone in my calls. I had called the top around Sept 27 in my analysis, and the breakdown entry at 286.68 on October 8 As my preferred entry for shorting as it confirmed a bull trap. I also made very clear importance about the breakdown of the 262.5 support on December 14 that had been advised that after that point we will officially be in a bear market at the break of the 21 monthly. Finally, on the day after Christmas, I posted a chart called "Closing time" about getting out of your shorts at the bottom of the bounce. I could even go as far out and say I was one of the first people to post on TV about a potential Bear market in the SPY, possibly in end July/August. And with all of that excellent technical analysis, as Krown's Crypto Cave advocates, "we are only as good as our previous trade." And I had been calling the top of this bounce from its inception and had "exected" it to roll over at every fib retrace, every overbought stoch, and any other technical indicator that can so easily be used to reinforce your own sentiment. I wanted to have a moment of honesty for all of you traders to focus and talk emotions. Trading in Zone, advocates that "you can have poor technical and still be profitable if you have control over your emotions." We had a very interesting close yesterday as we printed our first bearish engulfing daily candle and I am watching closely today for the needed follow through.
I am looking at 288.88 as my horizontal support, if broken would be putting us securely back into the ascending wedge pattern and should kick start this thing.
I have seen extreme weakness in these last few days, and can almost smell it in the air, that the times are a changing.
All stochs overdone, Daily Chart declining volume and long term divergence now, all of the technicals are there and have been there, just now we are seeing the fear and weakness to put the first crack in the hull.
After we retrace and get a bounce how hard and how will what I will be looking at for confirmation of bear market. I know I am very early to call that, but I am a biased bear.
As you practice technical analysis you learn your style, your methods, risk tolerance and understand your own emotions better. I have also learned that when you have a confluence of technical factors 4+ different confluence you must go with that if you don't then what are you doing in this game. Emotions are a different beast. They are the second half of the war. From my previous posts, you can see the extremes that I have gone in my calls. I had called the top around Sept 27 in my analysis, and the breakdown entry at 286.68 on October 8 As my preferred entry for shorting as it confirmed a bull trap. I also made very clear importance about the breakdown of the 262.5 support on December 14 that had been advised that after that point we will officially be in a bear market at the break of the 21 monthly. Finally, on the day after Christmas, I posted a chart called "Closing time" about getting out of your shorts at the bottom of the bounce. I could even go as far out and say I was one of the first people to post on TV about a potential Bear market in the SPY, possibly in end July/August. And with all of that excellent technical analysis, as Krown's Crypto Cave advocates, "we are only as good as our previous trade." And I had been calling the top of this bounce from its inception and had "exected" it to roll over at every fib retrace, every overbought stoch, and any other technical indicator that can so easily be used to reinforce your own sentiment. I wanted to have a moment of honesty for all of you traders to focus and talk emotions. Trading in Zone, advocates that "you can have poor technical and still be profitable if you have control over your emotions." We had a very interesting close yesterday as we printed our first bearish engulfing daily candle and I am watching closely today for the needed follow through.
I am looking at 288.88 as my horizontal support, if broken would be putting us securely back into the ascending wedge pattern and should kick start this thing.
I have seen extreme weakness in these last few days, and can almost smell it in the air, that the times are a changing.
All stochs overdone, Daily Chart declining volume and long term divergence now, all of the technicals are there and have been there, just now we are seeing the fear and weakness to put the first crack in the hull.
After we retrace and get a bounce how hard and how will what I will be looking at for confirmation of bear market. I know I am very early to call that, but I am a biased bear.
Nota
Red Lines are my breakout short entry areas of interest. I will be carefully watching the Blue descending bullish pattern for a potential break up, that bounce would probably be quite short-lived judging by the intense selling pressure these past few days. We have a pattern of pushing prices higher in the night trading hours, typically morning. And then the distribution into the general public has been happening during trading hours. .... Someones desperate for liquidity. Nota
Top of blue channel, watching for a bullish break out on small Tf.
Nota
I expect resistance to come in at the white horizontal line. Likely, reversal there. If that level is lost we will watch for increasing green volume in case we make an attempt to highs
Nota
Volume is declining on this bounce, signaling it could be getting ready to roll over. Below us is a myriad of lines, namely our red support lines. Breaking back below the blue descending channel would be an objective short if you don't like the intense pressure of breakout trading the red supports gives you more wiggle room.Nota
Target reached, Looking for a reversal and we will see where we get supported and with what type of conviction
Nota
Watching this level for Impulse higher above the highs today. We will want to see the increasing volume on a breakout and surpass the high where we are currently. Up until this point, the volume has been declining, which makes me a little skeptical, atm. But that will change if we get increased volume.Nota
RejectedNota
Selling was not impulsive, yet we still have very obvious declining volume. I would manage risk at the green box outlined upon potential breakout if volume and price are acting peppy. The recent price action has been sold into on every bounce higher especially on Gap ups. So... Right now the trend is to sell into it all, so keep that in mind, especially in times of bull traps. If you are a bull. Then I strongly Strongly suggest you do not attempt breakout trading with these types of market conditions, because it can get very tricky. Actually, I don't suggest you being a bull at all in these market conditions...... Nota
It would normally be a great bullish pattern set up. But we still are not getting the breakout out yet.. Keep a close eye at this point. Nota
Non-impulsive, non-increasing volume, new structure hypothesized, Ascending Channel. Nota
Because we opened around here we are in DOJI territory, the Daily. Keeping in mind that we had a bearish engulfing yesterday, today we want to see some follow through. If we close red Then that would make a big difference for early next week's downside potential, If we close Green, then we might get more "melt up" (i hate that term) next week. So this is a critical area for today's action and its Candle close.Nota
NZD/JPY is looking good for a potential 8% short, but it will likely move in tandem with this market. I have sell stops entered just below current prices.Nota
I didn't Give you all a good Overall picture of my chart ... so here it is. Nota
A potential short entry here if we get the same volume and impulsive selling.Nota
One hour left in trading, volatility. Ill say confirmed if we get a red-line break. Nota
I think we're down from these levels for a close today. This gives us our bearish daily candle as well if this happens. The pattern that broke from descending wedge is now forming a corrective pattern which I think might just roll over. We also just got slightly elevated Volume on the 1 min, which could be our top on this minute TF chart.
Nota
Wow, That Sure was IMPUSLIVE. BuT! we also got a spike in volume there supporting that wick. I still stick to that red dot line as entry and or past the wick of the high volume, to null it void. Nota
Steady red volume, and might be increasing. Looks Good.. 
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