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Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 16–20, 2025

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🔮 Weekly SPY / SPX Scenarios for June 16–20, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍

🏦 Fed Holds Rates, Powell Expresses Caution
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep rates at 4.25–4.50%, though Chair Powell likely won’t provide fresh guidance. Markets see limited upside without stronger inflation or growth cues

💱 Dollar Strengthens on Geopolitical Risk
The U.S. dollar rose slightly as investors flocked to safe assets amid global tensions with Iran. Treasury yields eased slightly on risk-off flows

🛢️ Oil Near Multi-Week Highs on Mideast & OPEC Dynamics
Oil held near seven-week highs (~$67–70/barrel), buoyed by Iran-Israel tensions and OPEC+ output hikes (411K bpd added from May–July), offset by demand concerns .

⚠️ G7 Summit Faces Heightened Stakes
G7 finance ministers meet in Canada under pressure from Middle East escalation. Watch for policy coordination and commentary on trade, inflation, and global economic risks .

📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊

📅 Monday, June 16

Regular markets open after Juneteenth holiday

Quiet day; oil & geopolitical headlines dominate


📅 Tuesday, June 17

8:30 AM ET – Retail Sales (May): Signals consumer spending strength/duration

8:30 AM ET – CPI (May): Confirms inflation trend post-CPI cooler reading

10:00 AM ET – Housing Starts & Building Permits (May): Gauges housing market demand

Unexpected Tesla Robotaxi Demo (Austin): Watch for surprise developments this week


📅 Wednesday, June 18

Global Central Bank Day: FOMC, BoE, BoJ policy updates; U.S. Fed will most likely hold steady


📅 Thursday, June 19 – Juneteenth Holiday – U.S. markets closed


📅 Friday, June 20

8:30 AM ET – Existing Home Sales (May): Measures U.S. housing activity

10:00 AM ET – Leading Economic Indicators (May): Early snapshot of economic momentum

⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis

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