SPY Morning Scalping Game Plan – March 21, 2025

21 Mac

1. Market Overview
* Current Price: $560.34 (Pre-market)
* Max Pain Level: $580 (Potential magnet, but unlikely today)
* Gamma Exposure: -86.8% Puts → Market makers will sell into weakness and buy into strength
* Major Support Zones:
* $560.20 → Highest negative NetGEX Put Support
* $555 → 3rd Put Wall (-71.85%)
* $550 → 2nd Put Wall (-88.58%)
* Major Resistance Zones:
* $570 → 10.85% Call Resistance
* $573-$575 → 2nd Call Wall (9.91%)
* $580 → 3rd Call Wall (9.3%)

2. Expected Market Behavior
* Bearish bias in the morning due to BOS (Break of Structure)
* Key Decision Area: $560
* If $560 holds, expect a bounce toward $565-$570
* If $560 breaks, expect a dump to $555-$550
* GEX Suggests Market Makers Will Sell Into Weakness:
* If SPY drops, expect acceleration downward
* If SPY spikes up, market makers will fade the move

3. Scalping Playbook
Scenario 1: Bearish Breakdown (Most Likely)
📉 If SPY loses $560.20 with strong selling volume → Short opportunity
* Entry: Below $560 with confirmation
* Target 1: $555
* Target 2: $550 (if heavy selling continues)
* Stop Loss: Above $562
✅ Confirmation Signs:
* Strong volume on breakdown
* Stochastic & MACD trending lower
* SPY fails to reclaim $560 after testing

Scenario 2: Bullish Reversal (Less Likely but Possible)
📈 If SPY holds $560 support and reverses → Long opportunity
* Entry: Above $562 with strong buying pressure
* Target 1: $565 (gap fill)
* Target 2: $570 (call resistance)
* Stop Loss: Below $560
✅ Confirmation Signs:
* Buyers stepping in at $560
* Bullish divergence in Stochastic/MACD
* Break of lower highs on smaller timeframes

4. Key Indicators to Watch
* VWAP: If SPY trades below VWAP, bias remains bearish.
* 9 EMA & 21 EMA: If 9 EMA crosses below 21 EMA, trend confirms down.
* Options Flow: Watch for large put selling or call buying for a shift.

5. Risk Management
* Take profits quickly! Market is volatile.
* If SPY is choppy → Wait for clear breaks above/below key levels.
* Avoid counter-trend scalps unless you see strong divergences.

6. Summary
* Bias: Bearish below $560, bullish only if reclaiming $562.
* Bearish Setup: Breakdown below $560 → Target $555-$550
* Bullish Setup: Bounce off $560 → Target $565-$570

🚀 Game Plan: Watch SPY’s reaction at $560. If it holds, play the bounce. If it breaks, short to $555-$550. Stay nimble and manage risk tightly.
Let me know if you need real-time updates as market opens! 🔥

21 Mac

Dagangan aktif

SPY Market Update – March 21, 2025 (Afternoon Session)

Recap of Our Morning Scalping Game Plan

✅ Bearish Scenario from This Morning:
• Short entry below $562 ✅ (confirmed rejection at resistance!)
• Target $560.50 → $558 ✅ (hit both levels!)
• Stop loss above $563 (held as resistance!)

⸻

1. What Happened After SPY Rejected $562?
• Price rejected hard at $562, confirming our resistance level.
• Dropped to $558.06, perfectly hitting our morning short target.
• Current Price: $561.27 (bouncing but still below resistance)
• Volume Increasing → Still potential for a move lower.

📌 This confirms that market makers are keeping price below resistance and still selling into rallies.

⸻

2. What’s Next for SPY?

Scenario A: Another Rejection at $562 → Bearish Continuation

📉 If SPY retests and fails at $562 again, expect another sell-off.
• Short Entry: Below $562 if rejection is confirmed.
• Target: $560.50 → $558 (again).
• Stop Loss: Above $563.

🔹 Confirmation Signals:
• Weak breakout attempt, low volume.
• MACD/Stochastic RSI turning bearish again.
• Sellers stepping in around $562-$563.

⸻

Scenario B: Break Above $562 → Bullish Reversal (Lower Probability)

📈 If SPY reclaims $562 and holds above, a move toward $563-$565 is possible.
• Long Entry: Above $562.50 with strong volume.
• Target: $563.50 → $565.
• Stop Loss: Below $561.

🔹 Confirmation Signals:
• Strong volume push above $562.
• Break of trendline resistance.
• Buyers stepping in aggressively.

⸻

3. My Final Thoughts for the Close
• If SPY stays below $562, we likely head lower into the close.
• If SPY reclaims $562+, we could see a squeeze toward $563-$565.
• Bias: Bearish until proven otherwise – Sellers still in control.

🚀 Game Plan:
• Short at $562 resistance if it holds.
• Long only if $562 breaks and holds.
• Expect volatility into the close due to OPEX!