Weekend Thoughts on the Overall Stock Market - March, 13, 2021

There's extensive notes on the chart with regards to this 12 or 13 year old bull market. Personally, I do not think that this is sustainable. There is a big article that came out last week where Bridgewater's Ray Dalio Warns of Possible ‘Lost Decade’ for Stocks. The stock market has skyrocketted beyond anyone's imagination due to the Fed-induced bubble keeping interest rates near zero, along with excessive amounts of new money (or "printing money", or "controlled" inflation), combined with excessive enthusiasm for investing (*cough* WSB degenerates *cough*) -- which causes the perfect storm for stock prices to rise beyond where they should be. In a nutshell, this means that because we have climbed up so fast, so soon, and there has been (for lack of a better word) euphoria in the markets - there is a good chance we will see a decade-worth of zero or flat gains, or lower than expected returns in the stock market. Meaning if you invested in let's say year 2022 when SPY was at $420, you will not see SPY $420 broken until year 2032. This is by no means an anomaly. We've seen this happen between 1930 and 1960, between 1968 and 1978, and between 1999 and 2013 [I will post links in the future when I have higher reputation points; TV does not allow this for me at the moment].

All-in-all, let's be thankful and enjoy this bull market. However, let's do our best not to miss capitalizing and making money on the upcoming recession before the potential lost decade starts.

Have a good weekend everyone. More analysis coming soon!