TLT untuk NASDAQ:TLT oleh johng2001

what result will be due to bond weekly bear trend ?

and this is current 10-2 year treasury Yield spread.
ycharts.com/indicators/10_2_year_treasury_yield_spread

Nota

Historical Treasury Yield vs. S&P 500 P/E
yardeni.com/pub/sp5peinflby.pdf

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will inverted Yield curve affect financial section?

let's take a look XLF

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lol, let's see tsla earning on July 19th.

it looks like the shorter have been forced standing on the top of mountain.

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spy

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anyone have idea about 'Davis double play'?
I'm just learning it now.
focusedcompounding.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/2019_11_01_Davis_Double_Play.pdf

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no long no short and just watching. I think the big game will come soon.

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I'll gradually collect short position when it reach new lower every time.

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it looks like financial section is doing something to save themselves before big game.

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BTC crash first and then financial section, what the next? Tesla or NQ?

do not touch Vix, it's under control . if you really want to short sth, just short section one by one.

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just want to remind again, if you have had any short position related with vix and already have gain, sell it and switch to others short position.

"soft landing" won't let it go higher. lol.

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how many banks put their investment on bonds ? and put RRSP and RESP on BTC?
I can not image what will happen.let's see

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dxy, bonds , stock market triple-play rather than 'davis double play'

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take a look TD canada

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TLT

Comparing with high valuation NQ,There should be some good chance for TLT in Q3-Q4 but not now.

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By the end of this week, do not buy vix related stuff.Let hedge fund play those stuff by themselves, if you really want short sth, I guess shorting tesla is better shorting spy and better than buying uvxy. just my advice.

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again, do not buy vix related stuff. leave it to hedge funds

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sold all uvxy and vix position. hahaha~ will reload by the end of this week

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sell vix/uvxy and return them to hedge found, will buy back next week

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sell uvxy while shorting BTC , hahaha~~

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Forget about DXY, it's just manipulating tools Now

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uvxy

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Try to long some stocks in Dow30 and Russell2000 instead of holding NQ and spy.

Short Tesla and some ugly banks instead of holding Vix.

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wow, look at BTC fishing game

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it seems that those guys just hold the vix long and just watching BTC short and do nothing. just get gain if BTC goes down.
so before I short BTC, I'll ensure leave nothing for those lazy guys.
haha~~

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ready? almost.

TLT

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big money is on the way. who care about NQ or SPY will keep going up or going down. hahaha

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I prefer to invest on TLT at current situation
This is not good signal for NQ. it might be best chance to short NQ today or tmr

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it seems that first run vix contract rolling over already in process. drive low and go high, repeat till expire day July 19th and then it might gap up.

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NQ

if I want to short NQ, I'll short it along the yellow dashed line.

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vix

I'll have a try if it drops to 14.85-14.9.

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dxy

again , during vix rolling over period. dxy is nothing but tools to manipulate marketing.

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that's it for today. haha~~

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focus on vix after market around 8:00:pm. hahaha~~

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Do not waste one penny on this garbage. neither short or long.

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how about short NQ and long TLT at the same time? is that doable?

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dxy

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It's reported there are about 10 countries willing to buy us bonds except china. Comparing current DXY and TLT. it might be in process, buy us$ with lower exchange rate for purchasing us bonds. if it's true, I guess TLT still need to be pulled back for those countries to buy.

30% of 8500B bonds for external countries, my question is who will buy remaining 70% in us marketing? that's not a small digital number.

Let's wait and see.

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finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CURRENCIES&p=i5

Cut nothing from china but still can get sth from G7.

lol.

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won't spend one penny more on this dead cat I still hold 2 short position. haha~~

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dxy

dxy is down just because China yuan is rising.
It's hard to say it is not the result for Yellen's china trip.
but it's good for us economic .

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continue, and I already setup all short order and cover order. do not trigger my system before 11:45am.
thanks

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thanks filled all my NQ short positions.

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tlt

hahaha~~

NQ will go to hell soon

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sold all tlt and wait till next wave

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lol. being manipulated by others? no..

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short NQ only, till it flow back to BTC during 17th~19th.

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uvxy

I'll try load some if it can drops to $16.06~ $17.03

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sold TLT and keep shorting NQ directly

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filled my NQ short@15575.75. appreciate and thanks

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BTC

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NQ

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re-short BTC @ evening market haha~~

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dxy

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TLT

Just wait and I already tried once and will load more soon.

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Yellen 'eager' to work with China on debt, other global challenges
reuters.com/world/yellen-eager-work-with-china-debt-other-global-challenges-2023-07-16/

Argentina Repays IMF Loan In Chinese RMB Yuan
silkroadbriefing.com/news/2023/07/11/argentina-repays-imf-loan-in-chinese-rmb-yuan/

IMF SDR

The IMF created the SDR as a supplementary international reserve asset in 1969, when currencies were tied to the price of gold and the US dollar was the leading international reserve asset. The IMF defined the SDR as equivalent to a fractional amount of gold that was equivalent to one US dollar.

what game they are playing?

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Repay argentina's IMF Loan and give a polite response to Yellen's trip
has it done already?

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TLT

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lol.smoking. State force RMB going down or china force DXY going up ?

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vix future current value

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NQ

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es

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dxy

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wow, do not forget tesla's earning report after day marketing.

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vix

today is vix option expire day. pump & dump just for rolling over to next term

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Tesla

game will continue. hahaha~

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NQ

pullback

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first run is over.

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only way up is waiting for shorter cover. haha~~

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which big guy will release earning report before the end of July?

I'll try to short it . hahaha~~

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JNJ earning report, it looks as same as yesterday's tesla. hahaha~~

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ABT, it can keep up trend a bit longer than JNJ

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es

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if you want to short it, pls short it in time . otherwise more you short, higher it will go!

hahaha~~~

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during vix contract rolling over period, they always use svxy to control selling and buying vix position .

look at this , that's why I do not recommend to trade vix directly.
if you have your own hedge strategy, that's fine.

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Dow30 is the last one.

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lol.

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finally they are synchronizing

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obviously, there still have big trouble between US & china

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It's reported Japan just sold 304B us bond and china sold 222B us bond and ...

what happened? failed to cut international leek and then ..?

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dow30 already did its best today, but still can not lift up the others.

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Focus on Treasury Yield Spread and forget about DXY .

10 Year-3 Month Treasury Yield Spread
ycharts.com/indicators/10_year_3_month_treasury_spread

whenever the convergency of this spread comes out again ( previous convergency happened in 2019), it will be the darkest day of us stock market.

No one knows when it will come, but it should come because the this kind of spread can not keep going more than 15months.

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warrior

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it's getting even worst. what happened?

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wow!

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lol

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synchronizing again

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cnbc.com/quotes/10Y3MS
convergency? can not wait more days?

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ycharts.com/indicators/10_year_3_month_treasury_spread

let's see if negative spread will keep going deep more than 1.8%, so that it still can save NQ life. and how they will keep playing the game of recession and recover.

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hahaha~~~

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dxy

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TLT

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it seems that whole marketing is playing cheating . hahaha~~

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fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M

key eyes on spread. if it keep going down, stock market will keep going up. otherwise, it will go down badly.

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intraday trading only. do not short it and just buy LL sell call HH.

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Tslq

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10 Year-3 Month Treasury Yield Spread is at -1.60%, now.
will it drop to -1.79% agin ?

"sell in may go away" ? nowau, they can adjust Yield Spread down to hell .

do you expect window dressing by the end of July?.
they also can adjust Yield Spread up to heaven

let's see it will dress up or dress down .

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current spread:
morning -1.52%
now -1.57%

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will they pause hike rate? FED? no credit at all.

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Just wait , it's on the way and it might be no more than 10 days

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I will keep buying cheap uvxy in the coming days without svxy hedge.

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hahaha~~~, perfect gift.

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treasure yield spread is going up and you guys keep dumping

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let's see when day marketing open, previous day's shorter will cover or more shorter will come in. hahaha~~~

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you can manipulate treasure yield spread, but you can not change this

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btw, thanks for filling my es short order.

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I'm pretty sure it's big fund company who tried to grab much more lower short position. and it also confirmed deep pullback will come soon. cherish your cheap position and good luck

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cnbc.com/quotes/10Y3MS
open value -1.636
current value -1.5

once the convergence trend build. that should be final of the game.

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Yesterday Once More. I like it.

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do not expect window dressing. I guess there might be no window dressing but pulling back instead.

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Monday might be last day to run away ( pumping).

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I never refuse gift . haha~~

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short ES and short NQ at HH
long RTY and YM at LL.
Do not touch VIX

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vix

keep going down.

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again , do not buy Vix related stuff unless RTY & YM breakdown the key support.

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lol: there must be something they really want to pump and dump

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it's totally different. dxy rising is not passive any more.

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buy RTY rather than VIX . let you guys hold all es & vix

hahaha~~

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start from Aug 1st, I'll long vix for 1 or 2 weeks

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this one will became VIP player very very soon.

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lol

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cherish short position in your hand except NQ short position.

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Dow is the last straw but I doubt if it still can stay on current position before 12:00 pm tmr.

Q&A

You can fight against FED but Do not fight against marketing . True or False ?

Marketing can not fight against FED . True or False ?

hahaha~~

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BTC

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cnbc.com/quotes/10Y3MS

current value -1.39%

ref my post on Jull 22th

whenever the convergency of this spread comes out it will be the darkest day of us stock market.

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BTC

It's under control by Dealer.

Again DO NOT SHORT

Buy dip & Sell higher

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NQ

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wow. is this real marketing?

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watching for them keep fishing on evening marketing

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dxy

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BTC

I'm not sure if it's last pump in Aug.

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NQ tricky game is in process.

if bounce up target is 15825.25 than it will keep going down to 15325.25 and stop around there. they just try to play tricky game to reserve room for Apple pumping
Let's see.
how they will play.

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shorter squeezing will begin.

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what a shame. they dare not squeeze short on regular day marketing .

Hope I can short NQ on evening marketing.

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DO NOT short to earlier till it enter target position they already setup.

even Apple can not pump that much, they still can maniplate Dxy

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NQ vs BTC

all those high-teck companies hide their oversea fund in BTC as well.
if NQ breakdown badly, they will flow in BTC.
keep eyes on both.

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uvxy vs svxy

this is another way for hedge funds to maniplate marketing.

both uptrend and one of them is lying.

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it's really hard job for Powell,
took a day to flatter democracy party and will take another day to flatter republican party.

lol

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vix

tmr badly short squeezing might come. but if you hold lower price short position hold it tightly.

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TLT up and Dxy down

US gov has to sell new released bonds as soon as possible and has to increase long yield.

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BTC

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TLT

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BTC

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DXY

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NQ

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TLT vs BTC

Shameless? it doesn't matter. They just try best to drive money into bond even you know it might keep dropping. (ref to TLT weekly timeframe).
you can keep hiding your money in BTC, but you don't know the cutting leeks cycle they already setup.

Good luck and trade safely!

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TLT comparing with BTC

coinmarketcap.com/currencies/trustlaunch/tlt/btc/

option 1, flow in TLT with super higher exchange rate
option 2, flow in BTC, stop loss in TLT

which way you'll select?

Neither way I will pick.

TLT trend is obviously , at least under weekly timeframe.
and BTC is also in dangerous trading area

if I were you, I would gradually buy US$ when it's lower level
and make decision later till treasure yield spread value ( between short term and long term) back to stable level.

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30 min timeframe

weekly timeframe

This is slowdown game, you may not like it if you'd take risk and get gain in short term.

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No matter under what time frame I will trade , once it's lower than weekly time frame, I'll buy both DLR and TLT in LL but sell TLT in HH .

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BTC

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I guess it should be last uptrend period in 2023. let's see where it can go.
But be patient and be careful

whatever I will have a try, I just put my first buy order @28345.

before my order being filled, I'll keep buying LL and sell HH on each lower time frame.

I also need to find a good hedge for my following trading.

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be patient, wait it drops to target position.

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sell BTC HH

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Don not buy BTC above 28400.

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Do nothing but short NQ. hahaha~~~

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Dot not buy BTC above 29000.

Buy LL sell HH to get gain and short NQ with gain.

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shot it with their own bulletin. hahaha~~~

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Save NQ? ask help from FED and Let DXY break down 95 at least .

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if only small part of Hi-tech companies flow back to BTC, then BTC might breakdown 20k very soon ( middle of Sept)

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Buy signal on weekly timeframe, it's just begin.

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hahaha~~~

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ugly enough , hahaha~~

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if you setup properly, One NQ shorting will bring you double gain.

There is enough time not too short and not too long.

Do not be rushed ,you do not need to short every position, just wait it up to target position.

you won't get it even you chase it for whole life. you'll get it easily if you just let it go

hahaha~~~

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drive money back to BTC and FED will make final decision if need to cut BTC leek.

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TLT

it'll up a bit and you'd better buy short term bonds rather 20 yrs long therm bond

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Before today, I thought 28000-28400 might be support.
But due to stupid pumping today, BTC will be declined another 1000points.
Let's see.

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Globe South and Globe North organization is in-process,
Inflation will continue and wealth transfer will continue.

No matter BTC UP or NQ down. it's last run for both BTC and NQ.say goodbye to BTC and NQ. Try to find something else to trade for coming month.

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Long RTY is much more safe than BTC. I don't worry if I'm locked with current position. I guess wealth transfer from NQ to RTY is part of gov's plan.

hahaha~~~

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steel bottom vs Glass bottom

hahaha~~~

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RTY: buy LL and sell HH but you'd better reserve a little and keep doing till Sept.
NQ: just one word, short!

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The ignorant are fearless!!

hahah~~~

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Short NQ HH first.

I'll sell RTY if it still climb up with RTY.

hahaha~~

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funny

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almost. hahaha~~

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I won't short until you cross down by yourself.

hahaha~~~

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No trading today and enjoy sun shine.

hahaha~~

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haha~~, nothing special

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stupid result

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tmr breakdown 28000

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Let NQ up and short later tmr. hahaha~~

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actually, we don not need to do anything today. just wait.

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well done. hahaha~~

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they have to discuss how to deal with current situation, and it will take at least 3 days. hahaha~~

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there might be small re-bounce here and you should roll over your short position or hedged.

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The ignorant are fearless.

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Do not short NQ in current Position

NQ : buy LL Sell HH.

Let it go up to target position

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Do not buy Vix related shorting stuff.
Do not short NQ any more.Buy LL Sell HH.
Close short if your short position is not good enough.

you can do it later , very soon.

I'll buy BTC later tmr.

good night!

Nota

vix option expire day August 16th.

BITCOIN FUTURES - CALENDAR
cmegroup.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/bitcoin/bitcoin.calendar.html

and you can guess which day will be last pump day.

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who will win this short term battle ?

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continue 2nd leg down on hrs timeframe

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be careful ...

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But do not short BTC now. otherwise you'll drop into trap.

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take care of your short position. Do not be too greedy!!!!

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temperately forget about shorting. BUY LL SELL HH instead of Shorting both

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sell BTC call @29432

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PPI.
Do not fight against FED directly.
Buy LL and Sell HH in coming days.

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PPI for final demand advances 0.3% in July; services rise 0.5%, goods increase 0.1%

I will close all short positions today.

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buy NQ put @ 14998

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sold BTC@29423

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Do not trade BTC.

Do not Short NQ. it's bear trap and it finally will go down. but not now.

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Today's bounce up totally failed.

It's over even though it might do last dead cat jump next Monday.

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Next Monday it might go down for a short time and money flow back to NQ to do NQ last try.

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No future for BTC in coming months. But do not short it Now.
The last pump might be in Aug.

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BTC bull - There is obvious top cap but no limited bottom.
BTC bear - Don't be forced stand on the top.
If you really like trading BTC, buy LL and sell HH.

Trade safely and Good Luck.

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buy LL sell HH for both

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BTC

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hahaha~~

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vix future

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NQ

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Before vix expire day
If NQ breakdown 15000 . BTC will reach new High around 24th.
If BTC breakdown 28500, NQ will bounce up to 15400 at least.

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Tomorrow, BTC all the way down

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tomorrow, I guess it will continue squeeze NQ shorter. NQ might slight up, but no matter it how much it will be pumped , it will be declined all on Wendensday.

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Short New HH start from Here! and close it if it down below 15000
I guess BTC will down below 28500 at that moment

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buy vix any New LL if down below Aug 10th LL

close it only if it reach new HH before VIX expire day.

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buy new LL tonight and sell HH tomorrow.

It looks like Tuesday is unloading day.

hahaha~~

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buy LL sell HH for both

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sell HH and do not chase in higher price

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vix future

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BTC

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be patient and just wait and watch

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svxy

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sell BTC call @34567.
if you really have that ability , BTC would have down below 10k 3months ago
hahaha~~~~

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cat dressed as bear but it's still cat.

hahaha~~

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Uvxy & Sqqq will turn down and continue to find NEW daily LL.

and real bear might come only when those cat bear burnt down

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it already started and will show us in 20mins

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more drop more buy

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Do not cry it's reserved.

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almost fully loaded (2/3) with Silver , NQ , BTC and TSLA
left 1/3 money for next week.

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money flow out and where it will flow in ?

NQ shorter will be burnt soon and then flow back to BTC .
2x2 =4 and get 4times gains.

FED ban buying back shares for those banks but never forbid those big tech companies to buyback their shares.
tricky? that's game.

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DLR

lol

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sliver

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Dxy is on higher level.

from next week, I'll Sell HH for any US stocks ,No matter short position or long position .

US stock market lacks of working capital.
and if you still trade on it. no matter you trade as short or long.
your money will finally go to those big hedge funds .

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next week, I'll collect gain from short position first

and then sell any long position once it bounce up.

sell BTC call @ 28843 till Aug 31th.

sell NQ call @ 15020 til Aug 24th

sell DLR call @ 128 till Aug 24th

sell Silver call@ 23.18 till Aug 24th

sell uvxy call@ 22.43 till Aug 22th

sell Sqqq call @ 21.88 till Aug 22th

sell BITO call @ 15.18 till Aug 31th

BITI already sold today

Nota

sell BTC call @ new HH and buy NQ new LL.

and after frame time run out. do the reverse, sell NQ @ new HH and buy BTC @ new LL

hahaha~~

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DLR

keep going down till New Lower price

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XLF

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XLE

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take profit first and keep surfing.

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Who told you NQ must go up if us$ keep going down ? All Down together!

hahaha~~~

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all down.

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this is joke.

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US$ is still within higher price range box.
Setup your own price range and grab your gain randomly, no matter short or long. and repeat ...

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almost reach my target

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be careful re-bounce

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close all short positions.

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thanks

hahaha~

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material and energy section will go up very soon

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the worst one. it will down to new LL . then I might jump in.

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It looks like everything will bounce up except NQ and DXY.

Maybe they just leave NQ to be shorter's target. and NQ will bounce up fast again till everything else calm down .

hahaha~~

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BTC

it will give us clear clue no later than next week. up to heaven (above 32k) or down to hell ( below 10k)

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DXY

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I'll buy silver at any LL on 15 mins timeframe before buying NQ

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Quadruple Witches . pump and dump delta should be great than 10000.

heaven or hell, just in a moment or just within 1-2 weeks.

hahaha~~

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During Quadruple Witches period, only trading logical is sell anything in high price level and already reached 52weeks HH .

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Happy weekend!! haha~~

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silver

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dxy

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sold all long position. and get ready for the next run

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be careful , there might be a dead cat jump

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hahaha, interesting game

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at most 2 more days

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just follow marketing. if you found your trading is very hard to fulfill your target, then you might trade in wrong direction.

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BTC

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it's time to sell long position and grab gain.
but it's not good time for shorting now and do not short it earlier. be patient.

I guess triple down might come very soon.

US bond/US dollar/ stock

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all index

will try short when it almost reach the 3rd HH.

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uvxy

hahaha~~, let they play with themselves

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again, No matter you short or long anything, only grab gain and do not do any cut for loss . if you are not greedy guy, you'll be fine.

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NQ

previous pullback has not completed yet, It has to return what it owed.

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ES

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bot Uvxy for first try and still hold small hedge svxy.

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DXY is down , so that NQ should go up?! Do not think it for granted.

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Uvxy

svxy will go up to 100

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svxy

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Let's see who is the best greedy guy, hahaha~~~

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everything can go up except NQ

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which one will go to hell soon in SPY? Financial Sector XLF or TSLA? not sure.

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NQ 5 mins

Do not short it today, Let it drop by itself.

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and just wait it falling down and then step on it. hahahaha~~

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shoulder already being built, same as NQ

do not short it and just let it down

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triple down

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TLT

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what happened? no deals with china?
hahaha~~~, all down very soon! nothing can be exempted

Democracy party can do nothing and just manually made recession and recovery.

but it's good for stock trading.

hahaha~~

Nota

again, no matter short or long, take profit in time.

everything will go down.

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hahaha~~, soft landing? that's a joke

after they squeezed shorting shares, I'll load heavy short position.

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BTC

I though it might be able to bounce up above 29000 today. but unfortunately it has to go home.

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NQ

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K.O. All down.

Do not expect US dollar will go up. and Do not expect US bond will bring rich to you.

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all down. nothing left! hahaha~~

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down, down...

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pump us$ and all major stock index, who will still hold stock shares? hahaha~~

I already collected all gain and just wait.

I guess marketing will tell you the real trend by the end of the 3rd week of sept.

Nota

US$ will keep going down and will be back in Q1 in 2024

Nota

AI or 6G

who will be the leader of the third industrial revolution?

Can Apple and TSLA be integrated together by US gov?

will Huawei 5G burst the biggest bubbles?