The 10-year Treasury yield has been a key chart for risk appetite since interest rates started rising in late 2021. Now it might be confirming a move in the opposite direction.

The first pattern on today’s chart of TNX (using 2-day candles) is the series of lower highs since October. Notice the steepening downward slopes of the falling trendlines. Does this reflect a growing belief that interest rates are headed lower?

Second, the yield broke June’s low 4.188. It’s also under the key 4.32 level dating back to June 2008. That may suggest the 2-3 year uptrend is fading.

Traders may next eye the December low around 3.80 as a key level to watch.

The move comes after the Federal Reserve suggested a rate cut is more likely next month. News and data could also support the change. For example, initial jobless claims were above forecasts and continuing claims reached their highest total in almost three years. Unit labor costs were below estimates and productivity surprised to the upside. Data from the Institute for Supply Management also indicated a potentially sharp slowdown in manufacturing last month.

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