As Q2 closes, Q3 begins...
The 2nd quarter of 2025 made up for a lot of the losses of Q1 peaking at $3.5T in the middle of the quarter. Since the peak a steady downtrend channel has formed and continues to be the case going into Q3.
What can we expect to see in the next 3 months in the crypto market? For me there are two different scenarios that are bullish, and one that is bearish IMO:
Bullish scenario 1 - The most likely scenario I think is a breakout above the downtrend channel and a move towards the range top. My reasoning for this comes from what we know about the driving forces in the market. Just last week BTC ETFs had a $2.2B net inflow, MSTR bought another 4,980BTC for $531.9m, various ETFs on the way for other majors such as SOL. Crucially the M2 money supply is at a record ATH. What that means is huge demand and the means to purchase with a what feels like a deadline closing in.
Bullish scenario 2 - We see a trend continuation until the range midpoint which has provided support before. It would coincide with the bottom of the trend channel and therefor I believe would provide a good launchpad for long positions.
Bearish scenario - For me this is the least likely situation but one that must be prepared for, a loss of the range midpoint would be a major setback, one that would mean a potential revisit of the range low in a symmetrical move down mirroring Q2s move up. The reason I believe this is the least likely is there is just too much in favor of risk on assets like crypto currently, I've mentioned the fuel that is the M2 money supply piling up to be deployed. A US interest rate cut all but confirmed for September and the institutional race for acquiring these assets before it is too late.
In conclusion just keeping it simple on the chart, a breakout above the trend channel is a great long opportunity to target the highs.
If BTC continues the grind down a great place for it to turn bullish is the range midpoint as has happened previously.
In the event BTC loses the midpoint a retest of the weekly low would make sense to me.
The 2nd quarter of 2025 made up for a lot of the losses of Q1 peaking at $3.5T in the middle of the quarter. Since the peak a steady downtrend channel has formed and continues to be the case going into Q3.
What can we expect to see in the next 3 months in the crypto market? For me there are two different scenarios that are bullish, and one that is bearish IMO:
Bullish scenario 1 - The most likely scenario I think is a breakout above the downtrend channel and a move towards the range top. My reasoning for this comes from what we know about the driving forces in the market. Just last week BTC ETFs had a $2.2B net inflow, MSTR bought another 4,980BTC for $531.9m, various ETFs on the way for other majors such as SOL. Crucially the M2 money supply is at a record ATH. What that means is huge demand and the means to purchase with a what feels like a deadline closing in.
Bullish scenario 2 - We see a trend continuation until the range midpoint which has provided support before. It would coincide with the bottom of the trend channel and therefor I believe would provide a good launchpad for long positions.
Bearish scenario - For me this is the least likely situation but one that must be prepared for, a loss of the range midpoint would be a major setback, one that would mean a potential revisit of the range low in a symmetrical move down mirroring Q2s move up. The reason I believe this is the least likely is there is just too much in favor of risk on assets like crypto currently, I've mentioned the fuel that is the M2 money supply piling up to be deployed. A US interest rate cut all but confirmed for September and the institutional race for acquiring these assets before it is too late.
In conclusion just keeping it simple on the chart, a breakout above the trend channel is a great long opportunity to target the highs.
If BTC continues the grind down a great place for it to turn bullish is the range midpoint as has happened previously.
In the event BTC loses the midpoint a retest of the weekly low would make sense to me.
Nota
TOTAL looks to be trying to breakout of the downtrend channels upper limit.Acceptance above opens the door to a run at the highs.
Nota
Strong breakout candle above the bearish trend channel, acceptance here would mean the range top is the target. Nota
The new BTC ATH has really propelled TOTAL out of the downtrend with strength. Local high tagged, flip that and it's a clear run towards the range high.
Dagangan ditutup: sasaran tercapai
There is the first touch of the range high. Textbook breakout 
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.