TSLA - In BIG Trouble

5 Mac

Bearish times ahead with bounces along the way 🪓.

40 minutes spent on this chart, so if you like the effort then hit the BOOST and leave a comment if you like 👍.

Not advice.

5 Mac

Nota

Forgot to come back to the Wyckoff Schematic; the bearish whipsaw above ATH resistance is Wyckoff UT - UpThrust.

It is the critical liquidity grab that fulfils the purpose of the "Composite Man" in Distribution.

5 Mac

Nota

First target - $128.
Lower target - $46.

What do you think, is $46 TSLA impossible ? ... lunacy to even consider ? ... 😅

We'll see... 👍

10 Mac

Nota

On target.

10 Mac

Nota

The described bearish whipsaw was a signal that the stock market was entering a correction / crash.

13 Mac

Nota

The bearish engulf has become a whopping 56% haircut❕

As I described in the video; it can work very well to sell at ATH resistance; especially in a hype stock up a ridiculous x34 from the lows.

To evident my bearish stance I made this post on Minds while it was still all the way up at ATH resistance:



If you didn't realise it before, you probably should now; TSLA is a dangerous stock.

Might see a recovery bounce but discounts are coming down the road.

Having sold the top, it would be very nice to buy deep.

Here's a chart of my earlier work:



Let's see how it develops ✨.

18 Mac

Nota

Tiny bounce snapped straight back to the downtrend which so far is too strong for any upside action.

The further this falls without a bounce, the deeper the eventual low will be.

What you're witnessing is a smart money trap to obliterate the trading herd.

Probably some of you that read this page will be part of that herd.

If you're someone that likes to believe in things, believe those things can lead to making great gains and are willing to put significant money on the line...

Then what you've done is analogous to smothering yourself with lube and closing your eyes.

Only real work gets it done.

18 Mac

Nota

Take a look on TradingView now - here are the top 6 videos.

Even after all this impulsive dump action and TSLA down 60% in the blink of an eye, no-one realises what is happening.

My call is the only thread labelled "SHORT" from 2 weeks ago.

Thats how it goes here; the blind leading the even more blind.

At some point there may well be some sort of bounce, but even if/when that happens, the eventual low will be significantly lower then where it is today; as described above.

24 Mac

Nota

Market bounce is on but Nasdaq may now be in a technical bear market so even if this has some pop it is likely to be dead cat in the end.

Shorts may be getting hot under the collar here but i'm not shorting, only looking for the eventual low which will most likely be deeper as described in the video.

29 Mei

Nota

a7a7a7a7a7 would like an update since he is short.

So lets see if we can help in his quest to make some money.

I personally wouldn't short TSLA since the price action gets very choppy and shorting is dangerous.

This thread was and is more about finding deep value and having a jolly time as a technical contrarian.

...

So nothing has changed since I made the video.

And all the work required to understand where the trend is heading is in the video.

But let's go through some key points again:

The market maker has 2 signature moves - in terms of liquidity.

The reason why these moves exist is because the market maker has a lot of capital and will get a better price upon exit when if there are bulk traders trading in the opposite direction.

And so the wave structure is an elaborate journey with that eventual goal(s) in mind.

Once the goal is achieved then the dominant trend inverts and the process repeats.

These 2 signature moves are:

- The whipsaw (also referred to as "bearish engulf")
- The liquidity sweep.

It is the whipsaw which effectively is the shark's (or whale's 😄) mouth opening and the sweep is the eating of food in exiting the market.

The larger the whipsaw is, the higher time frame the structure for liquidity sweeping is likely to be.

So when an enormous bearish engulf sweeps liquidity above a significant high; such a ATH with TSLA.

Then the next liquidity snack is likely to be a fair distance south.

...

As I talked about in the video (some time ago) notice that in the previous downtrend, TSLA has big bounces along the way.

In those areas, TSLA fanboys would no doubt be rejoicing and pointing toward positive fundamental developments as the reasoning for such a strong bounce and throwing their cash in.

But they were dead cat bounces, and was nothing more than the unfolding technical dynamic of corrective TSLA price action.

Even a dead cat can bounce - and in the case of TSLA; it has big dead cat bounces en-route to a selling climax.

And again, this is why I wouldn't short TSLA, or at least not without specific ratios and candles signalling bearish liquidity sweeping.

WIlly nilly shorting leads to getting trapped for extended periods.

...

In the previous downtrend, the dead cat bounces were slightly above 0.786 then 0.618 retracement.

So here TSLA is hitting the 0.618.

Again, non-technical fanboys will point toward positive fundamentals as their reasoning for such a strong bounce.

The FOMO will be strong up here and many will feel they do not have enough of their life savings / inheritance in trade and need to buy more.

But this bounce will likely be in reaction to the enormous 60% dump to complete the HTF whipsaw which of course will lead to quite a bouncy cat.

But the chances are it will roll over somewhere in the area of the 0.618 - 0.786 or slightly higher again.

After that its not impossible that there can be more dead cats along the way; again thats why I'm not short.

But one way or another the lower trendline will get exceeded and TSLA may end up going really low as discussed in the March video.

2 Jun

Nota

This area has now become a technical short opportunity.

Shallow re-accumulation that pops only to make a slightly higher high then slump - looks a lot like Bitcoin.

The bearish engulf that swept ATH is enormous and so the chance of a failure swing in the area of the retracement Golden Window is relatively high because the chance of double top is low.

And so the chance of it exceeding the Golden Window is relatively low with invalidation @ $0.85 - $431.

Thats obviously a long way up but in terms of price action; it may well be printing a topping pattern tidily at the 0.618 as described.

This is how it looked on Friday:

Today it gapped down and then quickly filled the gap.

The ideal short is above the 0.618, but considering RSI is rolling over etc, I have decided to make a first short entry here.

If this gets tumbling then as described above; there could be a selling climax to complete the downtrend.

This is not trading advice, it is just a description of what I am doing.

2 Jun

Dagangan aktif

I am short TSLA here @ $347 with one entry.

I may add more later.

5 Jun

Nota

TSLA gaps down in capitulation and dumps 18% for the day!

News today headline with -

"Tesla loses $36bn in value as political row and weak global sales weigh on shares."

"Elon Musk’s Tesla faces $3bn hit from Trump’s ‘big, beautiful bill’"

But if you've been following this thread that I made in early March, then you may realise that TSLA has been in a significant bearish trend all this time.

This was an obvious dead cat bounce that I was short before the news and dump.

I entered the short with a technical setup @ $347 as I posted here before this debacle just 3 days ago.

Now in FANTASTIC profit and it looks like there will be MUCH more downside to come with bounces along the way - exactly as I predicted months ago.

So this move was all baked in the cake.

The technicals preceded the news and market "reaction."

And so we can realise that the news is timed so that dumb money who believe fundamentals run the markets have something to shake a stick as they lose and carry the bags.

And as long as they believe this, they will keep coming back with more of their hard earned to donate to the market.

But for those that can read a chart this was all known about prior to the event.

Thats how this game works.

...

The techniques I have shown here do require some skill and awareness, but its not rocket science.

This was an easy trade and we'll see how it develops.

GG 👍.

12 Jun

Nota

Big bounce; following the format of the previous 2022 downtrend as I covered above.

But the difference in this downtrend is that there have now been two deep and impulsive capitulations.

- The first was the enormous bearish engulf that I covered in the video.

- The second was this recent dump - down 18% in a day.

In 2022 there was a capitulation somewhat similar to the recent capitulation, though not as impulsive.

Notice that the dead cat bounce that followed topped out a little above the 0.618 retracement:



And so we can use this as a guide for this area.

This next chart is from earlier today:

I didn't rush like a paramedic to deliver it to TradingView...



Notice that it was in a very similar position to the 2022 dead ca; already back above 0.618 retracement today.

Notice also that it made it back above resistance into higher liquidity.

Higher liquidity is where traders hide their stop losses...

The market maker will drive into these areas to get best price before swinging back in the opposite direction.

And so considering ratio and liquidity; this was an area likely to see a reversal and a great short opportunity.

Now having slumped back 3%, it is becoming more likely that this trend will turn bearish and the bounce will be another dead cat:



In addition, the German DAX looks close to rolling over again:



The DAX is the best performing stock index and so it is potentially leading the Nasdaq of which TSLA is in.

A capitulation in the DAX could be reflected in Nasdaq and TSLA.

So this is another great short opportunity with plenty of downside potential.

Obviously I didn't rush to make this update but only a matter of hours have passed and who knows - TSLA may first chop around in this area before a more significant slump.

My target will get hit 💪

12 Jun

Nota

I did also share my work on DAX with TradingView - and here it is:

12 Jun

Nota

TSLA down 3% pre market. DAX dumping, Nasdaq wobbling.

It might get very interesting in the not too distant future...

12 Jun

Nota

TSLA looking terrible as news talks up Robotaxi and pundits provide lofty upside targets.

12 Jun

Nota

Brace for impact / big winnings - depending on what side you are on.