Squeeze Short in a downtrend

5 Jan 2022

UNG retraced to the 78.6% Fibonacci level before consolidating into a squeeze.
1. Solid orange compressed squeeze
2. Still has negative momentum.
3. No propulsion dots requires a more conservative entry.
4. Vprofile levels offer entry levels and resistance.
5. 18 Feb 22 13 Put Entries ($12.80, $13.20, $13.80)
6. Profit Target #1 @ 12.05.
7. Stop Loss is 25% of the option price.

6 Jan 2022

Dagangan aktif

Prices reached 12.80 today.
Bot 18FEB22 13 Puts @ 1.07.

Continuing to watch for Moderate entry @ 13.20.

Good Luck!

8 Jan 2022

Nota

Bot 18FEB22 13 Puts @ $0.87 on the move to $13.20.
Holding both Aggressive and Moderate Entries for a move back down to the bottom of the range.

10 Jan 2022

Nota

Prices jumped today to the Conservative Entry. I bought extra time with the 14April22 13 Puts. The February Puts are down to 39 days, which will start to increase time decay. Purchase Price = 1.03.

12 Jan 2022

Dagangan ditutup: hentian tercapai

Prices hit both the 25% option price stop for the Aggressive and Moderate entries. In addition, prices have squeezed higher with increasing momentum through 14.00. I stopped out the entire position at 18Feb22 13 Puts @ 0.52 and 14Apr22 13 Puts @ 0.87.

Lesson learned: I should have performed my analysis on the /NG futures chart instead of the UNG ETF. Price action on the /NG chart were less probabilistic and had different entry areas. Need to follow future charts and buy options on ETF charts.