Bear Market for bonds is one thing that I can firmly say about this market. The US 10-Y bond yield should rise to somewhere around 3% by the end of this year so that is about 30 basis points to my target. Bonds are no longer attractive switch your money to stocks is a better option or better yet short it.
My Investment thesis on shorting bonds
- FED is shifting to more hawkish tone (a possible of 4 rate hikes instead of 3 this year) due to a possible picking up of inflation.
- Unwinding of carry trade.
- EM bonds are much more attractive.
- Credit spread is at an all time low (High Yield spread and Investment Grade spread)
Technically speaking, bonds has been in a downtrend for a while; so, this is quite a late call, but I believe there is still a downside here that we can play.
My Investment thesis on shorting bonds
- FED is shifting to more hawkish tone (a possible of 4 rate hikes instead of 3 this year) due to a possible picking up of inflation.
- Unwinding of carry trade.
- EM bonds are much more attractive.
- Credit spread is at an all time low (High Yield spread and Investment Grade spread)
Technically speaking, bonds has been in a downtrend for a while; so, this is quite a late call, but I believe there is still a downside here that we can play.
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I moved to property; I'm wrong about the yield play, gotta get back in with leverage.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.