Trend Exhaustion Detected – Bearish Structure Ahead

3 hari lalu

US100 (NASDAQ) 30-minute chart as of July 26, 2025, with technical insights based on the visible elements.

🔍 1. Trend Analysis
Primary Trend: Uptrend (bullish structure)

The price has been respecting a rising parallel channel, marked by:

Ascending support (lower boundary)

Ascending resistance (upper boundary)

Market structure shows:

Higher Highs (HH)

Higher Lows (HL)

✅ This indicates continuation of bullish momentum until structure breaks.

📐 2. Market Structure Elements
Structure Type Label on Chart Price Zone (approx.)
Break of Structure (BOS) BOS (center-left) ~22,950
Higher Low (HL) HL (2x) ~22,700 (1st), ~23,050 (2nd)
Higher High (HH) HH (2x) ~23,150 and ~23,300
Resistance Labelled ~23,300–23,320
Demand Zones Labelled ~22,450–22,700

🔁 Break of Structure (BOS)
The BOS occurred after a prior swing low was broken, followed by a new higher high, confirming a bullish shift.

🧱 3. Support / Resistance Analysis
🔼 Resistance Zone
The price is testing strong resistance around 23,300–23,320

Multiple rejections in this area

Trendline resistance also aligns here

A rejection arrow is drawn, indicating potential bearish reaction

🔽 Support Zone (Immediate)
23,180–23,220: highlighted green box is a local support block

If broken, likely to revisit 23,000–23,050, or even down to 22,900 range

🟩 4. Demand Zones
Zone 1:
22,450–22,600: Strong bullish reaction historically — likely to act as a key demand if a deeper pullback occurs

Zone 2:
22,850–22,950: Validated with prior accumulation & BOS event

🧠 5. Key Observations
Price is at a critical inflection zone:

Testing a resistance zone

At the upper trendline of an ascending channel

A bearish reaction is projected (black arrow)

Possibly targeting the green support zone around 23,180–23,220

If that fails, demand at ~23,000 will likely be tested

Ichimoku Cloud:

Currently price is above the cloud → still bullish

Cloud is thin → potential weakness or upcoming consolidation

⚠️ 6. Trading Bias & Setup Ideas
✅ Bullish Bias (if price holds above ~23,180)
Long entries can be considered on bullish reaction from support

Target: retest of 23,300–23,350 or even breakout continuation

❌ Bearish Bias (if breakdown below support)
Short entry valid below 23,180 with:

TP1: 23,050

TP2: 22,900

A breakdown from the ascending channel would signal trend exhaustion

🔚 Conclusion
Current Price: 23,298.4

Trend: Bullish, but at resistance

Next move: Watch for reaction at resistance and support box below

Bias: Neutral-to-bullish unless the structure breaks below ~23,180

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