NASDAQ 100 TRADING PLAN

⸻

🧠 US100 Multi-Timeframe Playbook

(W1 → D1 → H4 → M30 → M5)

⸻

🔹 Higher Timeframe Context

WEEKLY (Strong Uptrend):
• Key Levels:
 – ATH supply: 22,800–23,000
 – Support shelf (prior resistance): 22,100–22,200
 – 50-SMA: 20,400
 – 200-SMA: 16,100
• Summary: Bullish structure is intact as long as price holds above 22,100–22,200 and the long-term trendline.

DAILY (Bullish but stretched):
• Key Levels:
 – Upper Bollinger Band: 23,025
 – Mid-band & 20-SMA: 22,430
 – 50-SMA: 21,985
• Summary: RSI at 66 and MACD > 0 but flattening. This suggests bullish momentum may be cooling — odds of a pause or pullback rising.

4-HOUR (Wedge – Late-Trend Exhaustion Risk):
• Key Levels:
 – Rising wedge: upper rail ≈ 23,200, lower ≈ 22,450
 – 8-EMA: 22,655 | 21-EMA: 22,425
 – Anchored VWAP (from June low): 22,350
• Summary: Ribbon still bullish, but volume and MACD momentum are plateauing. A break below 22,450/VWAP confirms a corrective leg.

30-MINUTE (Neutral to Weak):
• Key Levels:
 – Descending micro-trendline: 22,725
 – Rising support: 22,690
 – Session range: High = 22,845 | Low = 22,690
• Summary: Price is coiled near the apex. EMAs curling downward. Market decision point imminent.

5-MINUTE (Immediate Bear Bias):
• Key Levels:
 – Live VWAP: 22,752
 – 9-EMA sloping down
 – Stochastic: mid-range
• Summary: Price remains below VWAP and 9-EMA. Short-term sellers in control unless VWAP is reclaimed.

⸻

📈 Trade Setups

1. Swing Long – Buy the Dip
• Let price wash through 22,450–22,350 (H4 wedge floor + VWAP zone)
• Enter if:
 – 30m bullish engulfing or hammer closes back above 22,450
 – AND 5m VWAP is reclaimed
• Initial Stop: Below liquidity sweep or 22,300 – whichever is lower – minus 0.25 × ATR(14, H4) ≈ 30 pts → around 22,270
• Targets:
 – T1: 22,845
 – T2: 23,200
 – Leave runner for blue-sky continuation
• Comment: With weekly trend. Wait for deep retracement. Great RR ≈ 1:3+

⸻

2. Intraday Short – Mean Reversion
• Trigger Zone: 22,725–22,760 (broken trendline + 5m VWAP)
• Enter if:
 – 5m rejection wick or bearish engulfing forms on avg+ volume
• Stop: Above 22,800 + buffer (≈ 22,820)
• Targets:
 – T1: 22,600
 – T2: 22,450
 – Optional T3: 22,350 (VWAP)
• Comment: Counter-trend, so treat as scalp. Tight stops. Demand at least 1:2 RR.

⸻

3. Breakout Long – Trend Continuation
• Entry Criteria:
 – 30m close above 22,845 with 150%+ average volume
 – 5m bull flag holds above breakout level
• Stop:
 – First 30m candle close back inside the range
 – Or 22,770 (flag base) — whichever happens first
• Targets:
 – T1: 23,025 (Daily BB)
 – T2: 23,300 (measured move)
• Comment: Only take if strong volume confirms new participation. Avoid during Asia or illiquid hours.

⸻

⚙️ Execution & Risk Guidelines

• Risk per trade: ≤ 1% account (limit counter-trend trades to 0.5%)
• Sizing formula:
 Contracts = Account Risk / (Stop pts × $ per pt)
• ATR reference:
 – ATR(14, H4) ≈ 120 pts
 – ATR(14, 30m) ≈ 80 pts
• Move stop to break-even once price moves 0.75 × stop distance in your favor
• Never run trades #2 and #3 at the same time → directional conflict
• Watch out for macro data (e.g., NFP, CPI) — can override intraday structure

⸻

⏱ What to Watch (In Sequence)
1. Overnight – Does price stay pinned below the 30m 21-EMA, or start to float above it?
2. London Open – First test of the 22,725–22,760 zone: fade or reclaim?
3. NY Open – Volume surge confirms either breakout (#3) or fade setup (#2)
4. End of Day – A close below 22,450 on volume = deeper pullback risk toward 22,000 next week

⸻

🔍 Final Thoughts

The trend is still your friend — but the daily and H4 chart are stretched. Let the trade come to you:

• Buy the flush only if we dip into confluence support and reclaim key levels (#1)
• Buy the breakout only if high volume confirms continuation (#3)
• Everything in-between is a scalp fade (#2) — execute cleanly, with defined risk, and respect trend structure.

This is for educational purposes. Fit these into your system and risk tolerance.

⸻