US30 short bias- 9th July 2025

I have conducted a comprehensive multi-timeframe analysis of the US30 index, with particular focus on its recent price action and structural context.

Quarterly Timeframe:
On the three-month timeframe, the second quarter’s candle close is notably bullish, having engulfed the previous ten quarterly candles. This significant engulfing pattern suggests strong underlying momentum. Importantly, there has not yet been a body closure above this quarterly candle, which indicates that price may attempt to break above its range to establish new all-time highs.
Recently, price action reached an all-time high near a major psychological level of 45,000 before retracing sharply to a liquidity region around 37,500. Since this retracement, there has been substantial accumulation of bullish orders, reinforcing the potential for price to retest and surpass prior highs.

Monthly Timeframe:
On the monthly timeframe, price has approached a key liquidity region around 44,500, where it is currently encountering resistance. While the higher timeframe bias remains firmly bullish, it is reasonable to expect healthy retracements before new all-time highs are made. It is worth noting that price has already broken above significant monthly levels at 41,750 and 42,600.
A retracement to these regions to collect further liquidity remains plausible, although this scenario is speculative rather than confirmed at present. Consequently, my bias on the monthly timeframe remains neutral in the short term, pending further developments.

Weekly Timeframe:
Price action on the weekly timeframe mirrors that of the monthly. There is little of note beyond the observation that price absorbed considerable bullish orders at 41,750 and has since encountered resistance near 44,750, leading to a modest retracement. Given this structure, I maintain a neutral outlook on the weekly timeframe.

Daily Timeframe:
On the daily chart, we can observe that the bullish momentum initiated from the 43,000 order block region faced resistance at approximately 44,500. Price briefly broke above this region on Thursday, 3rd July, but quickly closed below it on Monday, indicating a lack of sustained buying interest to propel price higher.
This retracement suggests that the market is searching for a deeper liquidity area to support its next upward move. Notably, a bearish three-pin formation is present, implying that price may break below the recent lows around 44,150. Accordingly, my bias for today is bearish.

4-Hour Timeframe:
In alignment with the daily bias, the 4-hour timeframe indicates that price is likely to target Monday’s low at approximately 44,155. The next key liquidity region lies around 44,000, where substantial bullish orders were previously filled. I am currently waiting for price to offer a suitable entry region to sell towards 44,000.
I am also mindful that the FOMC minutes are scheduled for release today, which could introduce significant volatility. Should a valid setup emerge, I will look to enter a short position. Specifically, if the current 4-hour candle closes bearish, I intend to consider shorts from around 44,220.

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Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and manage risk accordingly.