After an extended leg lower, USD/CAD is now posting signs of basing near major support at the 1.3815–1.3800 zone. The sellers appear to be exhausting, and bulls may be preparing for a counter-trend rally or even a shift in structure if momentum aligns.
🔍 Technical Setup:
Key Support Holding: Price is respecting the 1.3815–1.3800 area, a level that previously acted as resistance and is now serving as strong support.
Stochastic Momentum: Stochs are deeply oversold and beginning to curl upward, signaling early bullish momentum and potential for a reversal move.
Candlestick Behavior: Multiple small-bodied candles with long lower wicks at this level suggest buyer absorption and fading bearish strength.
EMA Watch: The 8 & 36 EMAs are still bearish, but price consolidating below them could set up a mean reversion play targeting the 1.4180 zone, where EMAs and prior structure converge.
⏫ Bullish Bias Drivers:
Daily Bullish Divergence Watch: Price is printing lower lows, but momentum is failing to confirm — potential for bullish divergence to support a bounce.
Clear Rejection of Bear Continuation: Despite bearish trend structure, there’s no daily close below 1.3800 — which could mean a bull trap failed to trigger.
Measured Move Potential: If this bounce gains traction, a swing move into the 1.4180 resistance zone (former structure and EMA confluence) is on the table.
🌐 Macro Fundamentals Backing a Bounce:
DXY Softness: The U.S. Dollar Index is weakening amid softer economic data and renewed trade concerns. If this cools off, we could see short-term strength as USD rebalances.
Canadian Dollar Sensitivity: Oil prices are high, but extended gains could stall — offering USD/CAD a window to lift off this oversold zone.
Positioning and Sentiment: Bearish sentiment on USD/CAD is becoming crowded — potential for a short squeeze if momentum flips.
🔍 Technical Setup:
Key Support Holding: Price is respecting the 1.3815–1.3800 area, a level that previously acted as resistance and is now serving as strong support.
Stochastic Momentum: Stochs are deeply oversold and beginning to curl upward, signaling early bullish momentum and potential for a reversal move.
Candlestick Behavior: Multiple small-bodied candles with long lower wicks at this level suggest buyer absorption and fading bearish strength.
EMA Watch: The 8 & 36 EMAs are still bearish, but price consolidating below them could set up a mean reversion play targeting the 1.4180 zone, where EMAs and prior structure converge.
⏫ Bullish Bias Drivers:
Daily Bullish Divergence Watch: Price is printing lower lows, but momentum is failing to confirm — potential for bullish divergence to support a bounce.
Clear Rejection of Bear Continuation: Despite bearish trend structure, there’s no daily close below 1.3800 — which could mean a bull trap failed to trigger.
Measured Move Potential: If this bounce gains traction, a swing move into the 1.4180 resistance zone (former structure and EMA confluence) is on the table.
🌐 Macro Fundamentals Backing a Bounce:
DXY Softness: The U.S. Dollar Index is weakening amid softer economic data and renewed trade concerns. If this cools off, we could see short-term strength as USD rebalances.
Canadian Dollar Sensitivity: Oil prices are high, but extended gains could stall — offering USD/CAD a window to lift off this oversold zone.
Positioning and Sentiment: Bearish sentiment on USD/CAD is becoming crowded — potential for a short squeeze if momentum flips.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.