USDCHF Analysis – "Dollar Trying to Break Free from Downtrend"

20 Jun

USDCHF is breaking out from a multi-week descending channel.

Structure shows a potential trend reversal from the June 12th low.

First bullish leg may target the 23.6% Fib level at 0.8266, followed by an extended move toward 0.8355.

Key resistance: 0.8266 and 0.8355 (Fib levels)

Stop loss: around 0.8093–0.8056 zone (previous support and breakout base)

Structure Bias: Bullish breakout after prolonged downtrend – confirmation depends on sustained move above 0.8200

📊 Current Bias: Cautiously Bullish
🧩 Key Fundamentals Driving USDCHF
USD Side (Mildly Bearish to Neutral):

FOMC held rates, Dot Plot showed only one cut expected for 2025, but Powell’s tone was less hawkish.

US Retail Sales soft, and PPI/CPI showed signs of inflation cooling.

Recent risk-off sentiment (Middle East, oil spikes, equity volatility) supports the USD.

Trump commentary and 2025 election anticipation bring long-term uncertainty.

CHF Side (Strong but potentially weakening):

SNB held rates steady, with cautious tone—no urgency to hike again.

Safe-haven flows still support CHF, but waning inflation and stronger global equity market might reduce CHF appeal.

SNB has hinted at FX intervention readiness, which could weaken CHF if necessary.

⚠️ Risks That May Reverse or Accelerate Trend
False breakout risk if 0.82 fails to hold → deeper pullback toward 0.8090

Stronger CHF demand on geopolitical fear (Israel–Iran, Ukraine)

Unexpectedly weak US data this week or renewed Fed dovish talk

🗓️ Important News to Watch
US: Core PCE, GDP revision (June 27), jobless claims

CHF: Swiss CPI, SNB FX intervention chatter

Risk sentiment: Iran/Israel tensions, equity volatility, Trump Fed commentary

🏁 Which Asset Might Lead the Broader Move?
USDCHF could mirror sentiment across CHF pairs—if risk-on resumes and CHF weakens across the board (EURCHF, NZDCHF also rallying), USDCHF may accelerate higher.

30 Jun

Pesanan dibatalkan

📉 Update – Trade Cancelled: USDCHF Failed to Confirm Breakout

The anticipated bullish breakout setup on USDCHF is no longer valid as price failed to sustain a move above the key 0.8200 confirmation zone.

🔹 Price action stalled below confirmation level (0.8200), invalidating breakout structure
🔹 Bias neutralized – no sustained momentum to flip structure bullish
🔹 Setup cancelled pending new technical/fundamental catalysts

We'll reassess if structure changes or fresh drivers emerge from key data or SNB/Fed headlines.