Weekly closing price: 0.9676
Despite a brief pause around the 2018 yearly opening level at 0.9744 two weeks ago, in the shape of a weekly indecision candle, the pair was incapable of mustering enough strength to defend the line last week and therefore descended lower. Provided that the bears remain in the driving seat, a gradual approach towards a weekly located around the 0.9443-0.9515 neighborhood is possible.
Last week’s decline ended with daily price chewing through a daily support drawn from 0.9711 (now acting resistance). What this move also accomplished was forming a potential D-leg to a daily formation (see black arrows). The next area of interest beneath 0.9711, in our opinion, is the daily demand base at 0.9565-0.9611, which houses the 161.8% daily Fib ext. point at 0.9575.
Friday’s action on the H4 timeframe reveals that the 0.97 handle was challenged going into the initial hours of US trading. While a short burst of buying was seen from the line, the psychological band eventually failed. The move below this number also took out a H4 Quasimodo support at 0.9683, and reached a session low of 0.9664.
The H4 broken Quasimodo line at 0.9683 is interesting. Looking down as low as the M15 timeframe, one is able to see that this level remains untested as a resistance. Given that broken Quasimodo lines boast a high success rate, as well as both the weekly and daily structures indicating that further downside may be on the horizon, selling around 0.9683 could be an option today, targeting the 0.96 handle (essentially the top edge of the aforementioned daily demand).
Data points to consider: No high-impacting news events on the docket; US banks closed.
Areas worthy of attention:
Supports: 0.9443-0.9515; 0.9565-0.9611; 0.9575; 0.96 handle.
Resistances: 0.97 handle; 0.9683; 0.9744; 0.9711.