The pair has been in a downtrend on a year-to-date basis, is currently relatively overbought and is trading around a 3-month+ old . While buyers still appear to be in control, all indicators hint at a move to the down side. A close below the labeled threshold will serve as a confirmation for the conservative trader. A close above the doesn't necessarily mean that our analysis has been invalidated. It'll mean that the pair is even more overbought than it currently is.
Prices drop faster than they rise in a downtrend and rise faster than the drop in an uptrend (Yes, it's true. Go check it out!) . This is valuable info since trading against the prevailing trend can be thought of as "swimming against the tide". It's futile because a pull-back in the opposite direction of the prevailing trend is only a retracement of the previous swing (in most cases), meaning that it's short-lived. Now, more than ever, the stars are aligned in our favor. Not only is the pair overbought, it is so in a downtrend nonetheless!