USD/JPY Slides Below 142.00 as US Nonfarm Payrolls Disappoint

The USD/JPY currency pair experienced a decline below the 142.00 level, dropping by 0.47% in response to the US Nonfarm Payrolls report missing market expectations. The US labor market showed signs of easing, and adjustments made by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to its Yield Curve Control (YCC) also influenced the Japanese Yen's strength against the US Dollar.

The recent release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls figures by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed a slower job growth than anticipated, with only 187,000 jobs added in July compared to the estimated 200,000. While this data may lead the Federal Reserve (Fed) to reconsider a rate hike in September, it also put pressure on the USD/JPY pair due to the disappointing results.

However, the report wasn't entirely bleak, as Average Hourly Earnings showed promise by rising 4.4% year on year, surpassing expectations of 4.2%. On the other hand, the Unemployment Rate inched up from 3.5% to 3.6%, indicating some challenges in the labor market.

The US Treasury bond yield, specifically the 10-year benchmark note, decreased by seven basis points to 4.119%. This decline acted as a headwind for the USD/JPY pair, given the positive correlation between the currency pair and US bond yields. Traders opted to engage in carry trades, taking advantage of the interest rate differential.

Adding to the complexity, the Bank of Japan implemented adjustments to its YCC policy, allowing for more flexibility within the range of 0.50% to 1%. The move created uncertainty among speculators, who are now speculating on the peak point of the BoJ's intervention in the market. The bank's continued unscheduled bond-buying operations also added to the intrigue.

As a result of these developments, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the performance of the US Dollar against a basket of other currencies, dropped by over 0.50% and is currently trading at 101.944. A notable evening-star three-candle pattern has emerged, suggesting further potential downside for the index.

Looking ahead to the upcoming week, investors will closely monitor key economic indicators, including the US inflation report for July, the Balance of Trade figures, and speeches from various Fed officials. These events are expected to impact market sentiment and influence the USD/JPY pair's trajectory.

In Japan, market participants will pay close attention to the BoJ's Summary of Opinions and Japan's Current Account data, which could provide further insights into the country's economic outlook. As global economic conditions remain uncertain, traders will stay vigilant for any potential shifts in the currency markets.


TurnAround Point: 144.50

Our preference

Short positions with targets at 141.50 & 140.50 in extension.