usdjpy short

13 Jan 2018

End of Week Review
Sunday 14th January 2018-01-14

Monthly Chart
Candlestick: red marubozu
The resistance level = 114.282. It touched with its wick – the tip of its wick.
The body is at = 112.5.

It broke through support line of 111.74.
The body ends on 111.

The support and resistance level it is boxing on = 114.2 and 111.74 (the month hasn’t ended yet) or 109.9 (if it break through support of 111.7).


SMA 7, 12, 50.
50, 7 AND 12 are all in 1 line. It is flat.

EMA 7, 12, 50.
7 is still on top, flat with 12. It is flat lining. 50 is still below.
Definitely boxing between 114 and 110.3

>EMA and SMA: a sign of flat lining and if it cannot be withstood, it will downtrend.

BB sd 2
In the top band – but on the bottom edge, will break through if it solidly broke through 111.74 support line.
> it supports EMA, SMA analysis – it is on the brink of downtrend.

BB sd 1
Right in the middle of it

Parabolic SAR
Still in the trending up

Stochastic
80 has been touched, the lines have crossed underneath 80 and are declining.
> a sign of downtrend is imminent?

RSI
50 – overbought

ADX
20 – has been declining.

MACD
Histogram = has been flat
Lines = have been declining and now flat

Conclusion
It is hanging on to flat lining, a push will make it crumbling.
The next support will be 110.2.

Weekly Chart
Candlestick red marubozu
It killed the flat lining bodies that almost tried to break through resistance at 114.
S/R 114 and 111.15 – most recent strong support

Chart since April 2017 to Now
Support = 108.2 - 1 time: September 2017
Support 2 = 108.7 – 3 times: August, June (wicks only) and April 2017
Safe support = 110.3


SMA 7, 12, 50.
All 3 flat lining – 7 and 12 are meshed together, and 50 is not far from 7 and 12.

EMA 7, 12, 50.
All 3 flat lining – all 3 are meshed together.

Bollinger Band sd 2
Broke thru middle band.

BB sd 1
Broke thru band top and bottom – if break thru support it will break thru bottom band.
> it is an early indicator that it is going to decline strongly.

PARABOLIC SAR
Still shows uptrend
> already showing a downtrend.

ADX
12
- declining

Stochastic & RSI
Downtrend – 50

MACD
Histogram declining but still +
Lines declining

Weekly chart analy
Boxing:
Early indicator it will decline and break thru 110.3
>>>114 and 110.3.
Conclusion: Downtrend – a strong trend.

Review of econ calendar and business calendar:
> watch if trend will persist.
Wednesday 24 JAN 10.50 JAP BOT
Friday 26 JAN EARLY MORNING US JOB
Friday 26 Jan 10.50 JAP CPI

Overall conclusion
It will decline – COULD BE a strong downtrend IE TESTING 108.7

Will I jump into the trade this week?
Probably not.
I WANT A TREND TO BE ESTABLISHED.