Fundamental factors have the main impact on the WTI trend

30 Sep

USOIL ended up slightly higher last Friday but fell more than 3% for the week as markets gauged expectations for increased global supply and considered new stimulus measures from major countries in Asia, which import leading crude oil exporter.

- On one hand, OPEC+ plans to start increasing production in December, which has been particularly suppressive on oil prices and was the main negative factor for the oil market last week.
- On the other hand, the withdrawal of many stimulus policies by major powers, expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further and the escalating conflict in the Middle East still provide some support for oil prices.

Central banks of major Asian countries cut reserve requirements and interest rates last Friday, and governments of major Asian countries are launching a final round of stimulus to boost growth. The economy returns to the target of about 5% this year.
Israel said it bombed Houthi rebel targets in Yemen on Sunday (September 29) and continued airstrikes in Lebanon, expanding its alliance with Iran in the region two days after killing the leader of Hezbollah. Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah during the confrontation.

On the daily chart, USOIL Currently trading quite stable after recovering from the support level of 67.26USD. Note to readers in the previous issue. The recovery momentum is also being limited by the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level and the horizontal resistance level of 69.31USD.
However, looking at the overall technical picture, WTI crude oil is having more bearish conditions with the main trend from the price channel, pressure from EMA21 and weak recovery momentum when the RSI Strength Index turns down. price reduction signal.

In the near term, if WTI crude oil continues to be sold below the important technical level at 67.26USD it is likely to continue to decline more with a target level of 65.25USD. Even if WTI crude oil recovers further, it will still be limited by the EMA21, the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level and the upper edge of the price channel.

The bearish trend in WTI crude oil dominates the daily technical chart, and notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 67.26USD
Resistance: 68.74 – 69.31USD

14 Okt

Nota

16 Okt

Nota

The IEA emphasized that the oil market is currently focused on further developments from Israel, especially the possibility of attacks on Iran's key energy infrastructure. Iran's Kharg Island export port, with a capacity to transport 1.6 million barrels of crude oil per day, mainly to China, is the focus of concern. In addition, the risk of spreading conflict to the strategic Strait of Hormuz also receives special attention.

29 Okt

Nota

Crude oil prices returned to a weakening trend with the appearance of falling price models. Demand trends from China further reinforce these technical signals as the country's imports are down 350,000 barrels/day this year.

27 Nov

Nota

Long-standing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have cooled following the announcement from President Biden of a ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel. This development caused crude oil prices to be unable to maintain a slight recovery on Tuesday from the bottom of more than a week