At the first glance Oil appears to be on the rise, no explosiveness, but seemingly a slow'n'steady upward moves. However, the companies/ETFs in the industry don't seem to share the excitement. The few on my watch list are all in red today: ERX, XLE, SDRL, NADL, TGL and even the respectable XOM (some also ended red on Friday).
Anyone else thinks it's an indication of a near-term correction coming?
Some are a way more bullish than I am, but I don't think Oil is ready for a breakout yet. I believe we'll get back into the triangle formed in-between the bearish trendline from the all-times-high and the current year uptrend (black lines on my chart).
Komen
⋅
Once we are in the triangle again, no single direction is impossible. However, at this point I'm rather bullish in the mid-term.
Komen
ma.sanjuy
⋅
Dear, my view points as follows:
(a) if oil was really in demand, there was no need for OIL PRODUCERS, to cartelise the markets.. Oil is surely being fast replaced by Solar power (which is anyways the prime source of all energy).
(b) To evidence what i said above, think of the following: If all the exchanges on which Oil is traded, simply called for 100% margin coupled with PHYSICAL DELIVERY instead of CASH SETTLEMENT, oil would drop immediately to the actual price (which cannot be more than $20 per barrel).
one must think of the above fundamentals before thinking to BUY oil at the current prices. It is simply not sustainable - as it is far away from its fair pricing.
rgds/
VirtualFax
⋅
Thanks for your thoughts, ma, very good points! I can't agree more.
The only problem is that the oil market same as any other market is heavily manipulated. The paper trading that happens in Oil is nothing short from a global casino which has very little to do with the physical product. The price of paper, denominated in another paper is simply being moved in the desired direction in order to further enrich the rich. All the retail traders can do, if they want to participate in the action, is to get used to the rules of the game.
I remember from a few years back this one pot growing company from California with 18K initial share capital which went bust a while before but the shares of which were still trading on the market with capitalization of 2.7M. Day traders were milking cash out of ignorance and thin air.
shinsky
⋅
Nice try bud... hope you didn't get squeezed
VirtualFax
⋅
You mean like you did shorting Oil back in April?
No, I didn't since I wasn't shorting but was rather looking for a meaningful dip to go long. But thanks for asking, nice of you.
Anyway, this chart got invalidated after the price broke the 49.09 resistance level and held. So no gain but no loss either.
(a) if oil was really in demand, there was no need for OIL PRODUCERS, to cartelise the markets.. Oil is surely being fast replaced by Solar power (which is anyways the prime source of all energy).
(b) To evidence what i said above, think of the following: If all the exchanges on which Oil is traded, simply called for 100% margin coupled with PHYSICAL DELIVERY instead of CASH SETTLEMENT, oil would drop immediately to the actual price (which cannot be more than $20 per barrel).
one must think of the above fundamentals before thinking to BUY oil at the current prices. It is simply not sustainable - as it is far away from its fair pricing.
rgds/