1, we had a repeatable history before, we hit the low, and rise a bit and rally on OPEC meetings. Exactly the same game OPEC has on us. The last time to retrace to 0.382, this time we do. Also take a look at that price, this is where the monster rally begins. The big guys built position before and rallied there, profit at the top and sell also for big profit. They have a lot of power to sell as long as the price is above 46 in this case.
2, the technical chart let everybody sell, overbought in every where. Retails would just get scared. Those who don't, are idiots.
3, there is on immediate impulse for OIL . Rumors will come out because Nov meeting is too far away. They will repeat the same story again. You know the US newspaper are nor free. They are controlled by big money. They are shameless. They can sell their parent, wife, child and soul to appeal money. They would repeat that OPEC has given us to much promise while no actions indeed.
4, the OIL stockpile will rise. We are fortunate enough to have 4(or 5, I forget it) OIL drawback in EIA . It is time to rise because the decade strong hurricane will suppress a lot OIL consuming. You know the hurricane goes to Florida not Texas. I think supply remains.
5, the EMAs. The only I see useful here for OIL is 50EMA as a support(actually it is more complex.). Check it, it is 46!!! What a surprise, right?
6, the breakout in Thursday is a fake! Without a great news, the green candle attack the 50 is the greatest opportunity to sell the OIL . We will not get a lot of power up, it is very obvious.
Based on those 6 reasons, I sold 20% of OIL at Wednesday, then 80% of OIL at Thursday. And I built 20% short position on Thursday and short 80% on Friday.
Disclaim: I am not an expert on trading. You can see I didn't post any. I had a fulltime job (not trading) which makes me enjoy and nice money. I trade because I love the way market works. I feel encouraged when my idea is where the market will go. Post for interest. Let me know if I make critical mistakes in my analysis.
I lose everything earned from the recent rally.