USOIL monthly strategic outlook: more losses (NEW)

22 Mac 2020

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USOIL monthly strategic outlook (NEW)
IMPORTANT: this is speculative. results are
not guaranteed. this is not trading advice.
always do you own due dill.

Ok guys, WTI trading at 23 USD/bbl right now
after steep losses past few weeks.

This market is unlikely to reach balance anytime soon,
as currently supply is a lot higher compared to demand.
Most of the ground-based oil storage is running at full
capacity now and floating storage is also almost maxed now.

Finally, corona will induce delayed impact on supply chains,
therefore I expect demand for crude to reduce by up to 50%
quarter over quarter, this in turn will have negative impact
on price mid-term.

Balance price will likely get set near 17 USD/bbl, so more losses
ahead before we reach a a balance.

12 USD/bbl is also a possible outcome, if market remains unbalanced
for more than 3-6 months, this is an extreme outcome, but currently
hard to estimate corona impact going forward.

Longer-term, 32-38 will get re-tested, but this may take literally
12-24 months. So with current data, I expect oil prices to remain
subdued for at least another 6-9 months.