MACRO - VOLATILITY & SP500 -$VIX - The Gamma Bubble - Blood Moon
Telah dikemas kini
The Gamma Bubble is about to burst.
- High implied volatility on VIX... Barely moved during the market selloff on Friday. I think when indicators that usually inverse each other stop correlating with each other, investors are just completely exiting the markets.
- Over $100 Bn in bonds liquidated... Liquidity in the bond market was the only reason that I was able to remain bullish with some confidence in the equities market until now.
- Dark Pool Index indicating that institutional investors have been exiting positions since January. The last time such a movement was seen was in Feb. of last year.
- SPY with a scythe... algorithms selling off, while price being painted up for gamma exposure and theta burn:
In today's market, the lit pool markets are secondary to dark pool markets and the options market. True price discovery occurs after options have expired.
- $1.9 T Stimulus Bill passed, but I speculate it will only increase the scale of the liquidity crisis to come...
- $100 Bn~ was about the amount that the MM would need to have paid out from their exposed short positions on
GME at its previous high, when their 140% short interest via naked shorts was raided by retail investors, before Robinhood and other brokerages restricted buying. We saw exposed institutions liquidate their long positions across their market to defend their short position here.
- Congress only increased media exposure to the issue, and GME is preparing for another wave of retail impulse buying... By Elliot Wave Theory, the next impulse wave will takeGME higher than the previous high.
- Retail investors are certain to use at least some of their stimulus to fuel this movement.
- Not only GME, but AMC seems to be a likely candidate to converge with GME's price, via short squeeze + gamma squeeze. There are other highly suppressed stocks that are also rising.
- If SPY also begins a downtrend, it is the greatest candidate to gamma squeeze downwards, due to colossal implied volatility caused by the strength of the MM's algorithmic pinning.
Simply put, if SPY falls, it will fall hard and fast, and the OTM puts will fuel the short squeezes even more. This is big trouble. A liquidity crisis in the making, if the short side institutions do not unwind their positions.
- GME
- AMC
I took a hedge position, risked off, and began short positions on Feb. 10, more based on technical indicators, but I think this is more confirmation.
We will have to see if the Stimulus Bill can prolong this, but I think many are in agreement that a correction is imminent.
- High implied volatility on VIX... Barely moved during the market selloff on Friday. I think when indicators that usually inverse each other stop correlating with each other, investors are just completely exiting the markets.
- Over $100 Bn in bonds liquidated... Liquidity in the bond market was the only reason that I was able to remain bullish with some confidence in the equities market until now.
- Dark Pool Index indicating that institutional investors have been exiting positions since January. The last time such a movement was seen was in Feb. of last year.
- SPY with a scythe... algorithms selling off, while price being painted up for gamma exposure and theta burn:
In today's market, the lit pool markets are secondary to dark pool markets and the options market. True price discovery occurs after options have expired.
- $1.9 T Stimulus Bill passed, but I speculate it will only increase the scale of the liquidity crisis to come...
- $100 Bn~ was about the amount that the MM would need to have paid out from their exposed short positions on
GME at its previous high, when their 140% short interest via naked shorts was raided by retail investors, before Robinhood and other brokerages restricted buying. We saw exposed institutions liquidate their long positions across their market to defend their short position here.- Congress only increased media exposure to the issue, and GME is preparing for another wave of retail impulse buying... By Elliot Wave Theory, the next impulse wave will take
GME higher than the previous high.- Retail investors are certain to use at least some of their stimulus to fuel this movement.
- Not only GME, but AMC seems to be a likely candidate to converge with GME's price, via short squeeze + gamma squeeze. There are other highly suppressed stocks that are also rising.
- If SPY also begins a downtrend, it is the greatest candidate to gamma squeeze downwards, due to colossal implied volatility caused by the strength of the MM's algorithmic pinning.
Simply put, if SPY falls, it will fall hard and fast, and the OTM puts will fuel the short squeezes even more. This is big trouble. A liquidity crisis in the making, if the short side institutions do not unwind their positions.
- GME
- AMC
I took a hedge position, risked off, and began short positions on Feb. 10, more based on technical indicators, but I think this is more confirmation.
We will have to see if the Stimulus Bill can prolong this, but I think many are in agreement that a correction is imminent.
Komen
Also some factors that I am considering for a market reversal:- Reopening of the economy cannot be seen as bullish for speculative equities, as liquidity will need to be liquidated from the market for capital and real assets.
- Changes in monetary policy and widespread corporate fraud are signs of volatility to come.
- Lack of liquidity.
- Inevitable rising interest rates and QE stop.
- Correction long overdue, technically.
- DIX bottomed, market has never not corrected at these levels
- High sentiment about value and commodities rotation.
Public participation of new investors in over-leveraged risk speculation, exuberance, extreme greed:
- Penny stocks, crypto alt season, marijuana stocks pumping... big bubble top alarm bells.
- Megacaps are too expensive for retail so they chase cheaper, lower hanging fruits, bleeding the price of the megacaps.
Komen
Most concerning is how SPY closed below some key trend lines, like the fork's median line: and VIX closing above the median line.
Komen
Mar. 29 will be the Blood Moon.Today the dark pool index on SPX made a triple bottom, and then began diving again. The last time it was at these levels was before the Sept. 2020 correction, and Feb of 2020.
It suggests that institutional investors are selling off, in anticipation of a market correction, and are handing off the bags to retail to be left holding the bag.
The low volume breakouts we saw today has solidified my conviction in this market correction. It means that the price action is being painted such that retail investors are given a buy signal to re-enter.
This market behavior also creates a harmonic pattern, which frequently occurs before such a correction. This song and dance has been done before:
Feb. 2020:
The last leap before fall. She reached for the sun at 3400 but only found the Blood Moon.
Dark Pool activity suggests that institutional investors have been exiting the market since Jan. 2020.
Feb. 2021:
Even more concerning is this greater cycle fractal harmonic:
Today she danced. She is reaching for the Sun once more at 4000.
Speculation: We will not reach 4000 before the next Blood Moon.
Komen
This is Jerome Powell's market.Feb 5. 2018, Jerome Powell is nominated to be the 16th chair of the Federal Reserve.
Powell's adoption of asset bubbles from 2019 onwards, resulted in levels of wealth inequality not seen in the United States since the 1920s.
This is liquidity farming of a monstrous degree. Liquidity is being sucked out of the market, and into the hands of the few.
I will even tell you the next crash. It is clear:
Komen
Get ready for planned economy... It is already here.Komen
Here's another. Gold leads everything. Gold tells you the future.Biden will not be president again next term.
We are going to war soon.
Komen
Our strong economy can afford 100 a barrel oil, don't you think?I heard Iran has a lot of oil.
Komen
I also heard that Iran has nukes.Komen
Look this up - Central Banks are short squeezing the bond market... This is how they are suppressing the yield curve. One of JPow's many macroprudential tools.Volatility assets like "meme stocks" are rising as a result.
Should this fail, they will move to YCC, IMO.
I think we are having a breather in the market because gamma needs to reset, and vega needs to correct. The next explosive move down is coming...
More and more traders are entering the derivatives market, but I think soon, this will be pinned further. We will go even deeper into the derivatives game.
It sounds a little bit like this scenario, don't you think? investopedia.com/terms/d/derivativestimebomb.asp
It would be a shame if these complicated positions of institutional investors and central banks were to be unwound at once.
Komen
the 200 SMA is a high probability bottom, don't you think? About 1800~Komen
Here's a good idea.Hydrogen is the new oil:
Credits to Dr. Bang for this one.
Komen
Next bull market is nuclear energy, MIC, AI, edge computing, fintech, Smart Cities, 5G/6G telecommunications.2027-2030 we will see the biggest black swan event ever seen in history, and it will be climate/environmental related.
Will update on this mega analysis later.
Komen
It is clear now. Fed's weapon is revealed: Komen
Mar. 19 is the quad witching. Blood Moon will be at its zenith that day. Mar. 22 is probably the day.Komen
I don't think the full effects of COVID-19 were priced in yet. I also think we will see wave 5 of the virus... and it will be more powerful than the last.When the economy re-opens, we will have Fed manipulation-adjusted true price discovery.
Komen
Mar. 19 we will see the Wave 3 high of COVID-19:
Komen
3 and 19 are the numbers of judgement. Contemplate these numbers.Komen
Here's something of interest:SoftBank purchased a massive options sweep in early 2020, through its $100 Bn Vision Fund, which could be the initiator of the tech bubble that followed. As we know, the options market is the real market, and the stock market simply follows.
"Far from striking a winning pose on Tuesday however, Son emphasized the importance of defense. He opened his presentation with slides depicting a 16th century battle between two Japanese lords. Oda Nobunaga, who would go on to unify Japan, won the engagement by sheltering his riflemen inside a wooden structure to protect them from samurai on horseback."
“You can’t skimp on defense,” Son said. “We need to strengthen our defense. Defense is cash.”
- Taken from Bloomberg
We are in the middle of the greatest economic war in history, with many players. Economy always leads the armed conflicts.
Komen
The Occam's Razor question is: "What if it’s due to the fact that there is not a lot of sellers willing to let it go at current price and that's why the price is rising with no volume ?"
However, Dark Pool Activity, and the Advance Decline Index shows that the Market Breadth has been on a decline. Institutional investors had already sold in January, and now retail investors are selling.
Once the options expire, there will be real price discovery.
Komen
Ovid's Metamorphoses are complete. The age of iron is over. God's judgement on 319.Komen
Today Jerome Powell spoke about interest rate. He gave a clear *signal* for the *time*.*3* and an element of *judgement*.
The Owl, symbolizing misfortune and death on Rome, for Jerusalem.
This is Jerome Powell.
He says 319.
Judgment on Rome on 319.
Komen
"The move in yields haven't been disorderly."Game Stop.
Komen
3 Ovid 19God's judgement. Metamorphoses.
Komen
GME and AMC:Game Stop of the movie called America.
Komen
The Bible’s answerThe Bible describes events and conditions that would mark “the conclusion of the [current] system of things,” or “the end of the world.” (Matthew 24:3; King James Version) The Bible calls this time period “the last days” and the “time of the end,” or “end times.” (2 Timothy 3:1; Daniel 8:19; Easy-to-Read Version) The following are some outstanding features of last-days, or end-times, prophecies:
War on a large scale.—Matthew 24:7; Revelation 6:4.
Famine.—Matthew 24:7; Revelation 6:5, 6.
Great earthquakes.—Luke 21:11.
Pestilences, or epidemics of “terrible diseases.”—Luke 21:11, Contemporary English Version.
Increase of crime.—Matthew 24:12.
Ruining of the earth by mankind.—Revelation 11:18.
Deterioration of people’s attitudes, as shown by many who are “unthankful, disloyal, . . . not open to any agreement, slanderers, without self-control, fierce, without love of goodness, betrayers, headstrong, puffed up with pride.”—2 Timothy 3:1-4.
Breakdown of the family, with people who have “no natural affection” and children who are “disobedient to parents.”—2 Timothy 3:2, 3.
Love of God growing cold in most people.—Matthew 24:12.
Noteworthy displays of religious hypocrisy.—2 Timothy 3:5.
Increased understanding of Bible prophecies, including those related to the last days.—Daniel 12:4.
Global preaching of the good news of the Kingdom.—Matthew 24:14.
Widespread apathy and even ridicule toward the evidence of the approaching end.—Matthew 24:37-39; 2 Peter 3:3, 4.
The simultaneous fulfillment of all these prophecies, not just a few or even most of them.—Matthew 24:33.
Komen
Widespread apathy and even ridicule toward the evidence of the approaching end.—Matthew 24:37-39; 2 Peter 3:3, 4.Komen
Everything I say is opinion. I am in no way linked to any sort of organization.Komen
One last thing... I am getting in the ARK.Catherine D Wood
Katharos - clean, pure, cleansed .
4 - Creation, rescue.
Wood - Christ, salvation.
Komen
There is no coincidence about this biblical symbolism occurring.Biden spoke today about Neanderthals, which went extinct, and displayed the bust of a Roman bust next to him.
Harris is 'destruction', B'iden is 'in judgement'.
Harris is 451 in gematria, the Messiah without God.
They are the Biblical Cozbi and Zimri.
Together they are 536, a nest. Their marriage will be the the the birth of the Third Holy Temple. The necessary preparation for the reign of the Antichrist.
Today, QAnon followers predicted that Trump would be sworn in as the 19th president of the restored constitutional republic. 19 is a powerful number.
Q is 70 in Gematria, also 70 is Hidden, Pdf, Meme, Malik (King), and "I God".
This is difficult to take in, but this is a war of ideas, ideologies, and religions.
Some are trying to enact the Great Tribulation, and Christian Eschatology. Expect some sort of Messianic event...
Jesus himself stated, in response to a Samaritan asking whether it is right to worship on Mount Gerizim or Mount Zion, that "a time is coming when you will worship the Father neither on this mountain nor in Jerusalem... But in spirit and in truth". He stated of the Herodian temple, "Not one stone will be left on another; every one of them will be thrown down" – John 4:21, Luke 21:6.
What is the truth?
Take from this what you will, but the symbolism cannot be ignored.
the end is clear but it remains for each individual to choose which role he will play.
Komen
A Tidal wave is coming. I will not believe my eyes, but use my head.Komen
Possible Civilian Unemployment Rate Forecast:
Komen
COVID-19 deaths possible forecast:Komen
Last one. Done for real. Going to play the normal game again only.
Komen
Ok really, really, really last one.Alan Grayson will be president, after Kamala.
Cure might be Feb. 1, 2022.
Komen
I am not a prophet. I am just crazy! It was all a joke and I am completely wrong.I repent for my idolatry.
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