XAUUSD ICT Analysis | Smart Money Concepts | 15m Chart

This chart exemplifies classic ICT methodology and Smart Money Concepts (SMC) in motion. Here's a breakdown of the zones and logic:
Current Market Structure

• Market swept a prior low (liquidity grab) near $3,015, indicating Smart Money accumulation in the breaker block.
  
• Bullish reaction occurred precisely at the breaker + demand zone, suggesting accumulation by Smart Money.
  
• Price is currently respecting a short-term higher low, with probable retracement toward premium levels.
  

Key Zones Marked

• Breaker Block ($3,015–$3,036): Entry area where price reversed after liquidity sweep.
  
• High Probability Reversal Zone (~$3,061–$3,075): Aligned with 0.382–0.5 Fib + internal liquidity.
  
• Pullback Zone (~$3,090): 0.618 Fib retracement & previous inefficiency (FVG close).
  
• FVG (Fair Value Gap) (~$3,100–$3,135): Anticipated magnet for price to rebalance inefficiency.
  
• Order Block + Rejection Block (~$3,135–$3,167): Strong resistance zone. High chance of rejection.
  

Expected Play

1. Liquidity Sweep Below -> Accumulation in Breaker Block
   
2. Bullish Repricing Toward FVG + OB
   
3. Reaction in Pullback Zone / OB Likely
   

Smart Money will look to offload longs in the OB/Resistance Zone, potentially triggering a bearish rejection.

Macro Fundamentals (April 2025)
Recent Geopolitical & Economic Drivers:
1. Middle East Tensions: Escalation between Iran and Israel has increased risk-on demand for gold.
2.USD Weakness: Mixed US labor data released April 4 showed slower job growth, reducing Fed’s tightening stance.
3. Gold Reserve Accumulation: Recent reports indicate China & Russia continue increasing gold reserves, supporting medium-term bullish bias on XAU.