Emas Semerta / Dolar A.S.Singkat
Advanced SwingTrading Breakdown of XAUUSD Gold (1-Hour Chart)
The updated chart for XAUUSD (Gold/USD pair) on the 1-hour timeframe provides an in-depth analysis using a combination of Wyckoff Distribution, Elliott Wave Theory, and Fibonacci retracement levels to project future price movements. The integration of these methodologies indicates a bearish market outlook, with the potential for further downside as the market completes its distribution phase and transitions into a markdown.
1. Wyckoff Distribution Analysis:
The price action shown on this chart aligns closely with the Wyckoff Distribution schematic, which represents a shift from an accumulation (bullish) phase to a distribution (bearish) phase. The primary components of the Wyckoff Distribution are marked clearly on the chart, indicating a structured process where institutional players offload their positions before a price decline.
Preliminary Supply (PSY): This is the point at which the first signs of distribution emerge, indicating that sellers are beginning to test the market. At this stage, demand remains strong, but early signals of weakness in buying interest become visible.
Buying Climax (BC): The Buying Climax represents a significant rally, which reaches a peak as demand becomes exhausted. Following the BC, supply begins to outweigh demand, creating a pivot in market sentiment.
Secondary Test (ST): After the BC, a Secondary Test (ST) occurs, where the price revisits the area of the climax but fails to break higher. This failure further confirms the transition from accumulation to distribution, showing that buying strength is waning.
Automatic Reaction (AR): The AR reflects the market’s natural reaction to the buying climax, leading to a sharp decline in price. This serves as confirmation that the market is entering the distribution phase, with sellers taking control.
Upthrust (UT): The Upthrust is a deceptive move in which the price momentarily breaks through the established resistance level, encouraging additional buying. However, this breakout quickly fails, trapping late buyers and signaling a high probability of a reversal. The UTAD (Upthrust After Distribution) shown in the chart is a classic final thrust before the markdown phase, where weak hands are left holding positions as larger players finalize their selling.
Sign of Weakness (SOW) in Phase B: The SOW during Phase B is indicative of increasing selling pressure. The price fails to make new highs and begins to form lower highs, confirming that the sellers are in control.
Last Point of Supply (LPSY): The LPSY marks the last opportunity for distribution before the price starts to decline significantly. At this point, selling is dominant, and the market prepares to transition into a markdown phase.
2. Elliott Wave Theory Integration:
The chart integrates Elliott Wave Theory into the broader analysis to project price patterns and potential future movements. The combination of impulse and corrective wave structures aligns with the overall bearish outlook.
Wave (i)-(v): The five-wave structure visible on the chart shows a classic impulsive move downward, indicating that the market is in the midst of a bearish trend. This initial impulsive wave is likely the first leg of a larger bearish cycle, supporting the Wyckoff Distribution model.
Corrective ABC Pattern: Following the initial impulse, a corrective ABC wave structure emerges, represented in purple shading on the chart. This correction retraces part of the impulsive wave but remains contained below key resistance levels, suggesting that the bearish trend is still intact.
Subsequent Impulse: After the ABC correction, the price is expected to resume the downward trend, indicated by the formation of another five-wave impulsive structure. This further reinforces the bearish outlook and suggests that any rallies are likely corrective in nature rather than the start of a new bullish trend.
3. Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
The chart also employs Fibonacci retracement levels, a key tool used by traders to identify potential support and resistance areas during price retracements.
0.5 Fibonacci Retracement ($2,640.548): This level is significant, as it represents the midpoint of the retracement from the initial impulsive wave. The price action around this level can be interpreted as the market's attempt to consolidate before continuing the downward trend.
0.618 Fibonacci Retracement ($2,654.518): The 0.618 retracement level, often referred to as the "Golden Ratio," is a critical resistance area. In the context of the current bearish trend, any attempts to rally beyond this point are likely to fail, making it a strong area for short positions.
0.786 Fibonacci Retracement ($2,661.593): The 0.786 level represents a deeper retracement, but still within the bounds of a corrective structure. If the price approaches this level, it is expected to face significant resistance, reinforcing the likelihood of further downside momentum.
4. Key Resistance and Support Zones:
Current Strong High Invalidation Point ($2,686.615): The chart identifies this level as a crucial invalidation point for the bearish thesis. If the price breaks above this level, it would invalidate the current wave count and suggest that the market could shift back into a bullish phase.
Resistance Line (BC Distribution): The resistance line, marked in orange, reflects the upper boundary of the distribution phase. As long as the price remains below this line, the bearish outlook remains intact. Any movement above this resistance would require a re-evaluation of the current market structure.
Support Line (AR Distribution): This support line indicates a key level formed during the Automatic Reaction (AR). A break below this support confirms that the distribution phase is complete, and the market is fully transitioning into the markdown phase.
Point of Control (POC - $2,623.700): The POC level, indicated by the horizontal purple line, represents the price level where the most volume has been traded. This acts as a key pivot point for price action, and if the price breaks decisively below the POC, it suggests that supply is overwhelming demand.
Value Area Low (VAL): The VAL is located around the $2,603 level and acts as a key support zone. A failure to hold this level opens the possibility for further declines, with the next downside target around $2,588 or lower.
5. Outlook and Conclusion:
The combination of Wyckoff Distribution, Elliott Wave Theory, and Fibonacci retracement levels points to a bearish outlook for XAUUSD. The Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) and Last Point of Supply (LPSY) suggest that the distribution phase is nearing completion, and the market is preparing to enter a more aggressive markdown phase.
Key Fibonacci retracement levels, such as 0.618 and 0.786, offer potential areas of temporary resistance, but the overall structure indicates that these levels are unlikely to hold in the long term. The Point of Control (POC) and Value Area Low (VAL) will be critical in determining whether the market continues to decline.
A decisive break below the AR support line would confirm the bearish scenario, while a move above the Current Strong High Invalidation Point ($2,686.615) would invalidate this analysis and suggest a potential shift back to bullish momentum.
1. Wyckoff Distribution Analysis:
The price action shown on this chart aligns closely with the Wyckoff Distribution schematic, which represents a shift from an accumulation (bullish) phase to a distribution (bearish) phase. The primary components of the Wyckoff Distribution are marked clearly on the chart, indicating a structured process where institutional players offload their positions before a price decline.
Preliminary Supply (PSY): This is the point at which the first signs of distribution emerge, indicating that sellers are beginning to test the market. At this stage, demand remains strong, but early signals of weakness in buying interest become visible.
Buying Climax (BC): The Buying Climax represents a significant rally, which reaches a peak as demand becomes exhausted. Following the BC, supply begins to outweigh demand, creating a pivot in market sentiment.
Secondary Test (ST): After the BC, a Secondary Test (ST) occurs, where the price revisits the area of the climax but fails to break higher. This failure further confirms the transition from accumulation to distribution, showing that buying strength is waning.
Automatic Reaction (AR): The AR reflects the market’s natural reaction to the buying climax, leading to a sharp decline in price. This serves as confirmation that the market is entering the distribution phase, with sellers taking control.
Upthrust (UT): The Upthrust is a deceptive move in which the price momentarily breaks through the established resistance level, encouraging additional buying. However, this breakout quickly fails, trapping late buyers and signaling a high probability of a reversal. The UTAD (Upthrust After Distribution) shown in the chart is a classic final thrust before the markdown phase, where weak hands are left holding positions as larger players finalize their selling.
Sign of Weakness (SOW) in Phase B: The SOW during Phase B is indicative of increasing selling pressure. The price fails to make new highs and begins to form lower highs, confirming that the sellers are in control.
Last Point of Supply (LPSY): The LPSY marks the last opportunity for distribution before the price starts to decline significantly. At this point, selling is dominant, and the market prepares to transition into a markdown phase.
2. Elliott Wave Theory Integration:
The chart integrates Elliott Wave Theory into the broader analysis to project price patterns and potential future movements. The combination of impulse and corrective wave structures aligns with the overall bearish outlook.
Wave (i)-(v): The five-wave structure visible on the chart shows a classic impulsive move downward, indicating that the market is in the midst of a bearish trend. This initial impulsive wave is likely the first leg of a larger bearish cycle, supporting the Wyckoff Distribution model.
Corrective ABC Pattern: Following the initial impulse, a corrective ABC wave structure emerges, represented in purple shading on the chart. This correction retraces part of the impulsive wave but remains contained below key resistance levels, suggesting that the bearish trend is still intact.
Subsequent Impulse: After the ABC correction, the price is expected to resume the downward trend, indicated by the formation of another five-wave impulsive structure. This further reinforces the bearish outlook and suggests that any rallies are likely corrective in nature rather than the start of a new bullish trend.
3. Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
The chart also employs Fibonacci retracement levels, a key tool used by traders to identify potential support and resistance areas during price retracements.
0.5 Fibonacci Retracement ($2,640.548): This level is significant, as it represents the midpoint of the retracement from the initial impulsive wave. The price action around this level can be interpreted as the market's attempt to consolidate before continuing the downward trend.
0.618 Fibonacci Retracement ($2,654.518): The 0.618 retracement level, often referred to as the "Golden Ratio," is a critical resistance area. In the context of the current bearish trend, any attempts to rally beyond this point are likely to fail, making it a strong area for short positions.
0.786 Fibonacci Retracement ($2,661.593): The 0.786 level represents a deeper retracement, but still within the bounds of a corrective structure. If the price approaches this level, it is expected to face significant resistance, reinforcing the likelihood of further downside momentum.
4. Key Resistance and Support Zones:
Current Strong High Invalidation Point ($2,686.615): The chart identifies this level as a crucial invalidation point for the bearish thesis. If the price breaks above this level, it would invalidate the current wave count and suggest that the market could shift back into a bullish phase.
Resistance Line (BC Distribution): The resistance line, marked in orange, reflects the upper boundary of the distribution phase. As long as the price remains below this line, the bearish outlook remains intact. Any movement above this resistance would require a re-evaluation of the current market structure.
Support Line (AR Distribution): This support line indicates a key level formed during the Automatic Reaction (AR). A break below this support confirms that the distribution phase is complete, and the market is fully transitioning into the markdown phase.
Point of Control (POC - $2,623.700): The POC level, indicated by the horizontal purple line, represents the price level where the most volume has been traded. This acts as a key pivot point for price action, and if the price breaks decisively below the POC, it suggests that supply is overwhelming demand.
Value Area Low (VAL): The VAL is located around the $2,603 level and acts as a key support zone. A failure to hold this level opens the possibility for further declines, with the next downside target around $2,588 or lower.
5. Outlook and Conclusion:
The combination of Wyckoff Distribution, Elliott Wave Theory, and Fibonacci retracement levels points to a bearish outlook for XAUUSD. The Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) and Last Point of Supply (LPSY) suggest that the distribution phase is nearing completion, and the market is preparing to enter a more aggressive markdown phase.
Key Fibonacci retracement levels, such as 0.618 and 0.786, offer potential areas of temporary resistance, but the overall structure indicates that these levels are unlikely to hold in the long term. The Point of Control (POC) and Value Area Low (VAL) will be critical in determining whether the market continues to decline.
A decisive break below the AR support line would confirm the bearish scenario, while a move above the Current Strong High Invalidation Point ($2,686.615) would invalidate this analysis and suggest a potential shift back to bullish momentum.
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Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.