📉 Technical Analysis – Gold (XAU/USD) – Weekly Chart
🔹 Price Action & Structure
Current Price: ~$3,420
Gold has been on a strong bullish rally, breaking previous highs and trending upwards in a steep channel.
The chart shows a long-term ascending parallel channel, with price currently nearing the upper half.
There's a crucial breakout zone marked around $3,500 – a psychological and technical resistance level.
🔹 Key Levels
Immediate Resistance: $3,500 – if a weekly candle closes above, it opens up bullish continuation.
Next Target (TP): $4,083 – based on the breakout projection and mid-channel resistance.
Further TP: $5,031 – top of the channel (longer-term target).
Support Zone: $2,750 – highlighted in blue, a strong demand zone with past accumulation and breakout area.
🔹 Technical Indicators to Watch (not visible but implied):
Fibonacci Levels: The $3,500 zone could align with a major fib extension (likely 1.618 from previous swing).
RSI: Likely in overbought territory on the weekly, hinting at possible short-term exhaustion or retracement.
MACD: Likely showing strong momentum, but a bearish crossover on higher timeframe would confirm a pullback.
Volume Profile: (not shown) could confirm if accumulation is happening above $3,500.
🔹 Potential Scenarios
Bullish Breakout: If price closes above $3,500 and holds, a rally toward $4,083 is likely.
Fakeout & Rejection: If price gets rejected from $3,500 zone, we may see a pullback toward $2,750 for reaccumulation.
Profit Booking: After reaching $4,000+, profit booking could cause consolidation or a deeper correction.
🌐 Fundamental Analysis – Gold Outlook
🏦 Macro Drivers
Global Inflation: Persistent inflation has historically driven gold demand as a hedge.
Interest Rates: Expectations of rate cuts by the Fed or other central banks in 2025 would favor gold prices.
Geopolitical Risk: Ongoing global tensions (Middle East, Eastern Europe, etc.) tend to increase safe haven demand.
Currency Weakness: A weakening USD supports gold, as it's priced in dollars.
💹 Investor Sentiment
Central banks are increasing gold reserves (China, Russia, etc.).
Demand for physical gold is high, especially from BRICS nations as they explore de-dollarization.
📉 Risk Factors
Sudden hawkish stance by central banks could pressure gold.
If inflation cools faster than expected, gold might see reduced interest as a hedge.
Overbought technical could trigger short-term corrections.
✅ Conclusion
Gold is currently in a strong bullish trend, testing a major resistance. A weekly close above $3,500 can push it to $4,083 and potentially $5,031 in the long term. However, retracement is likely if it fails to sustain above this level, with $2,750 acting as a key support zone.
“Watch price action at $3,500 carefully — the breakout or rejection here could define the next 6–12 months of gold's direction.”
🔹 Price Action & Structure
Current Price: ~$3,420
Gold has been on a strong bullish rally, breaking previous highs and trending upwards in a steep channel.
The chart shows a long-term ascending parallel channel, with price currently nearing the upper half.
There's a crucial breakout zone marked around $3,500 – a psychological and technical resistance level.
🔹 Key Levels
Immediate Resistance: $3,500 – if a weekly candle closes above, it opens up bullish continuation.
Next Target (TP): $4,083 – based on the breakout projection and mid-channel resistance.
Further TP: $5,031 – top of the channel (longer-term target).
Support Zone: $2,750 – highlighted in blue, a strong demand zone with past accumulation and breakout area.
🔹 Technical Indicators to Watch (not visible but implied):
Fibonacci Levels: The $3,500 zone could align with a major fib extension (likely 1.618 from previous swing).
RSI: Likely in overbought territory on the weekly, hinting at possible short-term exhaustion or retracement.
MACD: Likely showing strong momentum, but a bearish crossover on higher timeframe would confirm a pullback.
Volume Profile: (not shown) could confirm if accumulation is happening above $3,500.
🔹 Potential Scenarios
Bullish Breakout: If price closes above $3,500 and holds, a rally toward $4,083 is likely.
Fakeout & Rejection: If price gets rejected from $3,500 zone, we may see a pullback toward $2,750 for reaccumulation.
Profit Booking: After reaching $4,000+, profit booking could cause consolidation or a deeper correction.
🌐 Fundamental Analysis – Gold Outlook
🏦 Macro Drivers
Global Inflation: Persistent inflation has historically driven gold demand as a hedge.
Interest Rates: Expectations of rate cuts by the Fed or other central banks in 2025 would favor gold prices.
Geopolitical Risk: Ongoing global tensions (Middle East, Eastern Europe, etc.) tend to increase safe haven demand.
Currency Weakness: A weakening USD supports gold, as it's priced in dollars.
💹 Investor Sentiment
Central banks are increasing gold reserves (China, Russia, etc.).
Demand for physical gold is high, especially from BRICS nations as they explore de-dollarization.
📉 Risk Factors
Sudden hawkish stance by central banks could pressure gold.
If inflation cools faster than expected, gold might see reduced interest as a hedge.
Overbought technical could trigger short-term corrections.
✅ Conclusion
Gold is currently in a strong bullish trend, testing a major resistance. A weekly close above $3,500 can push it to $4,083 and potentially $5,031 in the long term. However, retracement is likely if it fails to sustain above this level, with $2,750 acting as a key support zone.
“Watch price action at $3,500 carefully — the breakout or rejection here could define the next 6–12 months of gold's direction.”
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.