3000 BY HALLOWEEN, DRAFT 10-13, NOT QUITE YET...

4 Okt

So after NFP, price went down as expected. However, I asked that if bulls wanted to move for a miracle route, that they move for 2675. They got to 2670, this is not enough to pull off the miracle route but it "bought more time". At 2:14 PM ET, trend maps say that this rally to "3000 BY HALLOWEEN" is very much alive but the short term technical damage needs to unwind first. There are several ways to do this. And the first way is chart above.

In the last hour, I thought that we had bottomed the second time and was moving up. This call was premature as it is not obvious what the Sunday night low will be. So let's get this up first and I will update Sunday night into Monday.

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Nota

2:21 PM ET, where the question marks are:
a) is when the next low is likely to be
b) I need to see what it looks like Sunday night
c) to call a legit route to 2700s
d) that's pretty much a wrap for Friday barring major news driver

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Nota

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2:51 PM ET, I am not doing this because I am in love with this 3000 thesis
a) I am still writing because the strong setup still exists
b) it is made up of medium-term, long-term, and very-long-term trends
c) it's hard to walk away from
d) if we get the gray route, that's a "picture perfect marriage" with short term trend maps
e) a situation where favorite route vs field is like 90:10 or 95:5
f) so I'm still here for at least one more weekend

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Nota

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Nota

1) in chart above, obviously if price drops to 2620s ...
2) it would be over in my book
3) but RIGHT NOW, medium/long/superlong trend maps still calling for
4) 2920 by 10/17 and 3070 by 10/31

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Nota

3:34, I have an idea that I can't believe I haven't tried:
a) first, I post a new post and change the immediate outlook continuously because
b) THE SHORT-TERM TRENDS CHANGE CONTINUOUSLY
c) and they determine the next move
d) but I often mistake this for change of overall thesis because
e) I extrapolate THE FOLLOWING MOVE BASED ON THE NEXT MOVE
f) but this is the wrong way to forecast because
e) THE NEXT MOVE HASN'T HAPPEN YET
f) like today's move lead out MORE BEARISHLY but ended bullishly
g) so I should forecast THE NEXT MOVE based on short term trend maps
h) but I should THE FOLLOWING MOVE based on how that next move fits
I) into medium to long term trend maps
m) BECAUSE THAT IS WHAT HAPPENS ALMOST ALL THE TIME
o) I can't believe it took me this long to understand this

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Nota

p) because the extrapolation of today's move (before the move to 2670 again)
q) would say that a move to 2670 is a miracle type of move
r) but that's only true because trend engine assumes that ..
s) the next move "IS A BIG DEAL" but 90% of the time it is not
t) it just hitting max ends of 2-way vol which if you extrapolate
u) LEADS TO A SIGNIFICANT TREND CHANGE

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Nota

3:54 PM, 2651, if you play chart at top, you will see why it is unlikely to be blue
a) because way behind
b) it would need to "way exceed" to get back to that average

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Nota

AND HERE IS 10-14: