Emas Semerta / Dolar A.S.Panjang
Mon 12Sep16
Telah dikemas kini
Stops are hit. I made losses for the last 2-3days. Now let's start from scratch position again. Indicators are conflicting at the moment. A thought came to my mind to balance betweek: was 1352 bearish entry or what many called a bull trap, or was it a Bullish momentum builder and we r now in a slight consolidation and a trap to catch off the weak longs.
Considering the longer lagging MACD, although drifting, is still above it s signal line, and the faster MACD should still be above its mainline as long as it closes above 32 today; plus Trix are trying to switch formations for bullish move; I will take a bullish stance with D+. Here ADX is really hiding its hand and usually this is where the big move is being cooked.
On a daily levels:
Pivots are at d:1331.2, w:1333.80, M: 1326.5
PSAR is at d:1306, w:1278
MAs cluster is in the range of 1325.50 to 1337
On intraday levels: h4 gave a 1327.8 as the lowest MA line and is now breached. the rest of the cluster sits all in a mess up to 1341.8. Oversold conditions are in the making, but still bearish.
Expectation: while i'm still bullish on the daily level, on intraday levels only bears are obvious and there is no reversal yet, but i'm expecting it to occur on a monthly pivot level at 1326.5. Let's note 1328-1330 is the break out area which price shot to 1352, so 1325-1327 could provide a demand zone.
Considering the longer lagging MACD, although drifting, is still above it s signal line, and the faster MACD should still be above its mainline as long as it closes above 32 today; plus Trix are trying to switch formations for bullish move; I will take a bullish stance with D+. Here ADX is really hiding its hand and usually this is where the big move is being cooked.
On a daily levels:
Pivots are at d:1331.2, w:1333.80, M: 1326.5
PSAR is at d:1306, w:1278
MAs cluster is in the range of 1325.50 to 1337
On intraday levels: h4 gave a 1327.8 as the lowest MA line and is now breached. the rest of the cluster sits all in a mess up to 1341.8. Oversold conditions are in the making, but still bearish.
Expectation: while i'm still bullish on the daily level, on intraday levels only bears are obvious and there is no reversal yet, but i'm expecting it to occur on a monthly pivot level at 1326.5. Let's note 1328-1330 is the break out area which price shot to 1352, so 1325-1327 could provide a demand zone.
Nota
9amNota
5:21pmSo indeed 1325-1327 did provide a demand zone. QM level spotted at 1327. Trying to long as close as possible to the level
Nota
Ny session decided to push to the maximum pain limit.about 1:30-2:30am we have direction switch as Fed's speech slump rate hike chance. cnbc.com/2016/09/12/lael-brainard-of-federal-reserve-warns-against-moving-too-quickly-on-interest-rate-hikes.html
Nota
Expectation: Reversal area happening in the area of Monthly Pivot and previous consolidation (1325-1327).What actually happened: The area chosen was NFP's retrace area (1319-1322). Furthermore, it's not about where but much more about when: which is the news on the Fed's speech.
Penafian
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