Emas Semerta / Dolar A.S.Singkat
$1000 REVERSAL DAILY COVERAGE
First and foremost, gold is in long term bull market. I can see $6500+ from here, but that's talking years out. This also implies that the one day, probably years after 6500, gold will be 10,000 and higher. That is the base case and it's hard to disagree with. However, once gold clears 3135 (and I think 3215), the correction is somewhere between $925-$1300. As it stands, my call is 3215 and 2285? The question mark on 2285 means I am more sure about 3215 ceiling than I am about 2285 floor because there's not a great reason why it cannot be 2100.
I will add more in the days ahead.
I will add more in the days ahead.
Nota
Nota
2/13, I am going to separate what is really strong technical data ...
1) vs. what is not entirely obvious
2) so let me put it this way
3) this move here without zig zag:
Nota
Nota
4) and in chart above, boldest of the four red lines is what you get if
5) you take $875, January-1980-USD adjusted for inflation
6) meaning that it should be 3350 in January 2025, but 3450 for January 2026
7) for the record, for this coming May, it's 3385
Nota
8) the three smaller red lines are falling resistance down to this channel: Nota
Nota
9) for the longest time, I had thought the high for 2025 should fall end of the year
10) so the charts above is basically saying (without trend break down) that it should be like this:
Nota
Nota
11) the singular difference is 3 months of stalling ahead of June FOMC
12) the 2420 low would come January 2026
Nota
2/13, 2:45 Nota
1) while not impossible, chart at top is too fast
2) and does not have enough 2-way vol sets to move $1000
3) because it would have to be basically up 500 and down 1000
4) which means the "irregular quad top" has to setup first
5) base case is black in chart above
6) so now we are waiting on 2 moves to decide first top
A) where the top is between 2943-30xx
B) and a retrace of approximately 150 points
7) until then, I have nothing else to add because I cannot gauge timing
Nota
8) for what it's worth, my call is 2985
9) but it doesn't really matter where it is
10) those 2 things have to happen first for me to "detail" the 1500 pt swing
Nota
Nota
11) so in chart above, we are waiting for the first top to complete
12) my call for this is 2985-2840
13) we will surely know in a few weeks
Nota
2/13, 7:36 PM ET, it should be 3005-2845
1) that's the first top and bottom
2) out of the "irregular false quad top" formation
Nota
3) so when price top and now we have it 3405
4) it will hit that January-1980-$875-adjusted-for-inflation line
5) while the bottom 2415 will be where that same $875 top ...
6) starts the trend line over the year-2011-1910 top (45-year trend line
7) and the trend maps fit perfect-perfect for this move as well
Nota
2/15, saturday, so it's starting to look like 2943 holds ...
1) that would mean the floor is roughly 2790
2) pattern does NOT CHANGE but
3) ceiling drops about back to 3390s
4) so expected high drops to 3390-ish if 2943 holds for first of four top
5) but still very early with 2 more factors we have to consider
6) but while the street (example citibank) thinks it maybe 3300
7) I my call is price will clear 3380
Nota
Nota
1) best draft so far
2) but doesn't matter unless we have first top
3) and we still don't
4) from here on out odds of a higher June/July ceiling increases ...
5) each and every day a top is not obvious
Nota
Nota
Nota
Nota
- this part is simple and doesn't require "expert math for you to understand"
- rallies in commodities complex and especially gold hits major peaks when...
- the slope of late rallies become steeper than early rallies ...
- especially when there is a major technical hurdle to clear before moving on
- that hurdle is a check of the 45-year trend line
- all this is saying is that the slope of price action increases to a point of unsustainability
- price action automatically produces "a crash setup"
- which is exactly what we have right now
Nota
- so that's the "overall idea" without getting too complicated
- meanwhile the overall pattern for this move is what I call...
- "irregular quad top into runaway rally" and then double reversal
- for example:
Nota
- by the way, I forgot to say that the circle in chart above is saying that
- the numbers TODAY say that the yellow hi-lights are not fast enough
- meaning the high needs to move in closer to the vertical dashed line
- that represent mid-June FOMC
Nota
Nota
Nota
- so where are we overall?
- that comes with examples of the technical move in a long rally
- example 1, year 1978:
Nota
Nota
example 2, late 2009:
Nota
1) it goes without saying that each rally has its own distinctive features
2) and that the "natural floor" for this pattern is actually between 1920-2080, or about 2000
3) meaning that from a raw numbers perspective
4) a $3000 ceiling and a $2000 floor is perfectly fine for the pattern that we are in
5) but there-in lies the expertise
6) citibank wants their cake and eat it too
7) that's why they said, "$3300 but maybe just $3000" and they caveat that with...
8) "depending what happens this summer"
9) well that goes without saying... it's always dependent on what happens next
10) my call as it stands is the ceiling starts at 3380 AND EXTENDS TO 3580
Nota
Nota
Nota
Nota
SO IF YOU'VE READ ALL OF THAT, HERE IS WHERE I AM WITH BEST DRAFT YET:
Penerbitan berkaitan
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penerbitan berkaitan
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.