Singkat

RIGHT NOW #17

Telah dikemas kini

THIS IS TO CALL TIME AND TARGET
1) had to wait to 62 high
2) still need a bump in between
3) to get the "look of it" right
4) working on it now

Nota

11:26, still waiting on a bump for a lower high.
1) said last draft it should be 55 and I still think so
2) but the should be lower than 58

Nota

11:37, route calling is "a painstaking continuously" process where the hi-lights must
reflect all the new data INCLUDING DATA that is contradictory to "the call".
3) calling 100 pt drop in 26.5 hours is one thing
4) creating hi-lights for the entire duration of that move
5) that's right up there with magic
6) BECAUSE YOU ARE NOT SUPPOSED TO BE ABLE TO DO IT
7) if you think this is easy
8) you are out of your damn mind

Nota

Nota

12:12 PM, it's stalling but implying a drop of 30 from 2445 and an NY close of 2415 right now.

Nota

12:38 PM ET, 2448.15, looks like we are going to get that bump for speed limit.

Nota

12:50, BY THE WAY
1) this is about how fast we get 100 pt move down
2) the trend setup is ABOUT WHEN
3) averages STILL SHOW 2303 ON MONDAY 08/05

Nota

4) I am thinking that bump to 2449 just now was all the bump

Nota

1:38 PM ET, so 2436.41, so my call...
1) is for 12:30 PM ET FRIDAY 2362, 26.5 HOURS
2) but the TREND ENGINE's call is 3 AM ET, or 15 hours

Nota

2:07 PM, 39.57, so stop should be 47.5

Nota

1) in chart above
2) that's the binary
3) you know what binary means?
4) two outcomes
5) I've said this before, but price is A CONTINUOUSLY BINARY OUTCOME

Nota

6) so if this breaks here..
7) then you get a small bounce and more sideways until
8) the hard drop later:

Nota

9) but I am OVER ESTIMATING THE BOUNCE to be safe
10) it may be just a small 4 point swing

Nota

11) here's the part that's difficult:

Nota

a) at the break of that line is 37.5
b) minimum vol is 4 pts, so 41.5
c) the question is how big of a bounce before this dies...?

Nota

d) I wanted this move to come earlier at 55
e) bc it would made the tail end less complicated
f) now we get a weaker bounce from 37.5 break
g) but the shape is NOT KNOWABLE
h) we just HAVE TO WAIT

Nota

i) 3:31 so I am waiting for reentry
j) bc I don't know where this bounce ends
k) just going to wait it out

Nota

3:54 PM, if it bounces any more, should be under 46.5

Nota

4) continuing with chart above
5) I am going to mow my lawn
6) AND THAT'S YOUR STOP 2445.80
7) if it dr0ps under 2440 here, THEN THE BOLD LINE IS YOUR STOP

Nota

8) the issue here is my time
9) I can't sit here and watch for the drop
10) so if this hits 2445.8
11) and knocks me out
12) YOU have to watch for a drop to short ...
13) F it, it's just too close, I'll wait another hour....

Nota

14) 7:43 PM, there, re-entry 2445.48, stop 2446.5'
15) yes, the stops have to be this tight
16) why?
17) bc I am not watching for the next 60-90 minutes

Nota

7:59, f it, I bumped it to 48

Nota

18) I'm not going to stop every 10 minutes to look at my phone
19) see you in 90 minutes

Nota

24) my personal view is that the 100-day rhythm should rhyme
25) the last I made the call, was also Thursday night into NFP
26) and the 100 point marker came at 2286 BEFORE END OF FRIDAY

Nota

5) and I just covered at 36

Nota

6) bought Monday 2435 puts

Nota

10:19 PM, entry 54.50.

Nota

10:50, top on this entry is 53.00.

Nota

10:52 PM ET, There's going to be one more top.

Nota

10:53, I am actually going back in immediately if this drops down.

Nota

11:05 I have a bid for 2464 in case it hits.

Nota

11:07, short 54.60.

Nota

11:14, stopped 58, still open for 64

Nota

11:21, in again 57.67. CANCELLED BID FOR 64.
a) mapping
b) will post notes

Nota

12:15, CLOSE 56.00

Nota

1) but keeping Monday puts bc free roll
2) this sideways move is taking too long
3) this changes 2 things
a) we still don't have a reliable second high marker
b) which means odds of another high is obvious
c) but more importantly
d) I have strange signal in silver

Nota

e) so the sideways move at the top
f) has to produce 2 continuous tops, one high, one a bit lower
g) that's close enough to complete this setup
h) and we still don't have that
i) this is raising the 2410 floor to 2420
j) which changes the timing of the entire 100 pt drop
k) pushing 2350s into MOnday

Nota

12:57, running out of time for 61+ high.

Nota

1:23 AM, 2457.93, THAT'S GOOD ENOUGH FOR ME, SHORT AGAIN 57.64.

Nota

7) continuing in chart above
a) this is NOT READY
b) but I got to sleep
c) and I don't see 67 getting hit
d) it needs to one more big zig-zag
e) to be a a strong short
f) so if you are up wait it out
g) if you are not up, set a timer for 6-7 hours out

Nota

I'm going back to bed.

Nota

I have to sleep.

Nota

Of course I re-positioned already.

Nota

1) Since high was 2478, small chance we hit 100 before end of day
2) That would be 2377.xx.
3) From 77 to 11 was already 66 points, so its not impossible.

Nota

1:21 PM, 2427.40, my target is Monday morning at 2355.
1) there are lower targets
2) but we do this one first
3) and then we regroup
4) because how high we got
5) the swing back up can come early

Nota

THIS POST HAS ENDED
WILL POST NEXT ONE IN GROUP

Nota

12:35 AM ET, Sunday 8/4, this one is just a GENERIC CHART

100 DAY GENERIC WITH 700 POINTS OF ONE WAY VOL

a) I am not doing "continuous updates" for this post
b) but if you seriously want them
c) I can cut costs by 76-81 % if enough people agree
d) and post/chart above will show how

Binary_Forecasting_Service

Penafian

Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.