REBOOT EPILOGUE: GOLD CRASHES... IN SLOW MOTION.
Telah dikemas kini
MY INTUITION SAYS THIS IS GOING TO BE MY GREATEST CALL EVER. FULL DISCLOSURE: MY INTUITION IS... ALRIGHT.
"Real longs never close." - A guy with a sense of humor, probably lost serious money at some point in his career.
Why do I keep posting gold crashes, do I hate gold? No, I love gold. What I love even more is to annoy gold bugs. They are the ultimate longs, salt of the earth people. I want them to happy if they can just stop being so emotional. I know a lot about gold. I know more about gold then it is healthy to know. From HSBC to LBMA to COMEX, from Rick Rule to Jim Rickards to Avi Gilburt, from FDR to Nixon, from gold standard to petrodollar, from inflation to deflation, from Russia to China, if you've heard it, I've probably read it. This much I believe: it's in a giant bull market the next 5, 10 or 50 years. But if you're like me, you want to get rich BEFORE you die, right? And getting rich is hard, unless you know the future. To do that, I spent a good 25 years studying astrology. If you've been reading my material and think my work on gold trends is decent, it is NO WHERE close to my astrological skills in mapping people's lives. I spent a great deal of my life studying philosophy, sociology, economics, religion and politics IN ORDER TO LEARN ASTROLOGY. 100% true. What I found out in learning astrology was that you're going to be the person you were always going to be. The reason is that the driver for extraordinary change is "determination". And the most frustrating part is that THE CONDITIONS THAT PRODUCE GREAT DETERMINATION is NOT for you to determine, they exists the moment you are born determined significantly by your parents, their parents, and socioeconomic class. After I found that out, I quit astrology 25 years too late.
Somebody told me bitcoin is the new gold. Well, we'll see about that.
"What you're doing, it is fool's gold." - John Bolton to me circa 2014, you probably haven't heard about him.
There's this country song with lyrics about this guy who "lives like he's dying." Maybe great line a for a song if you're drunk and dramatic, but bad philosophy to live by. Why do I say that? Because it illustrates how out of touch people are. "Like you are dying"? Wtf do you mean? You ARE going to die, you and everybody that's ever lived or will live. It's just that we don't really appreciate what we have until we have to deal with losing it. I was always aware, since gaining consciousness, that one day, this will all end. So I set out to make the most of it. What I wish I had to begin with, is discipline. It wasn't that I agreed with John and let it annoyed me. It was that I knew I lacked the discipline to get where I wanted to go. That I knew. What I knew even before John, is one day I'm going to die one day anyway. SO WHAT DO I HAVE TO LOSE BY GOING FOR IT?
"If you're so smart, why aren't you rich?" - Bill Ackman, CEO Pershing Square Capital, execued $2.6 Billion in COVID March crash on 96:1 trade (options probably).
I've heard this quote before from people who weren't rich. Hearing it from Bill Ackman is much more convincing. Youtube him if you don't know who he is. This inconvenient truth is the reason why I developed this whole multi-angle regression layering with complete 36-45 layers of volume-weighted MACD crossover strategy If you are going to do something though, why try to be above average? It can't possibly bring you satisfaction. The truth is I know I can pick 2-4 fantastic gold trades per year. It is NOT TRADING the rest of the year when I'm not sure that I have problem with. That, you got to have discipline and determination, blah blah blah. This time, I think am really, REALLY close to something that can make up for not having that.
"I"m not going there to die. I'm going there to see if I really am alive." - Spike Spiegel, a fictional character. Like me, only except he's fictional.
I'm from Vietnam, where people use the word "play" to reference all individuals who are involved with speculating/trading/investing. In many areas of the East, the concept of self-determination is still a very new concept. I have always told them, "I don't know why you call it play." I did I enjoyed creating this whole system/strategy, but I wasn't doing it because I'm a fool.
Summer's finally here. A hot day in Kansas City today, and I mowed my lawn. I always wear this cowboy hat my father gave to me a long time ago. But don't have any cattle, yet.
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FUNDAMENTALS: For many, many trades less than 100 days long, fundamentals can be a waste of time. That said, gold is not a safe haven. It is a safe haven IF YOU ARE A SPECULATOR (i.e. let's bet the house on NFP). For everyone else not gambling, it is a very, very real long term investment. In the absolute most basic term, it is anti-hegemonic currency, economically, geographically AND temporally (this last part is too long for this page). As states exit COVID shutdown and the economy stabilizes, gold will find difficulty holding investors' attention, especially during weak gold seasonality. July-August is a bottom for gold in many years. Google: gold 40-year seasonality chart. But, but, but the Fed, and infinity of money printing. Yes, that is theme for the REST OF OUR LIVES, just not necessarily the next 75 days. Time frame is so critical that in fact, most people's trade ideas are really correct, IT IS TIME FRAME THAT THEY GET WRONG. What will likely hold the market's attention in the next two months? COVID-19 wave 2? Maybe when it gets colder, my suspicion is too early. July, August, generally speaking, are hot months. Left-wing protests vs right-wing crackdown? People care about their income more than they do about race. If you disagree, you are not fit to be a trader. It's just not a convincing argument that Black Lives Matter protests will generate enough fear to drive up a globally held asset.
TECHNICALS: A little dirty secret for gold prices that not many people know is this: the linear regression curve and the Bollinger band with the same period of said curve AND the Bollinger band of with HALF the period of said curve, determines the bound of 99.5% of all gold prices, with the last 3 exceptions being: March 2020, October 1987, and some time in early 1970's (too lazy to find it for you). So 597 of the last 600 months. Safe to say it will hold the low from NFP dip to 1670's. That is to say, we are extremely oversold on a standard deviations basis. From an Elliot wave view, I still feel like wave 5 of 5 never happened. My Infinite Volume Oscillator is still saying this is a perfect-slam dunk, tripple-A, July 31st, 2019 fractal, only except STRONGER. My regressions are saying high next Friday, double top following week, and then sideways to down to August 20-ish 1613 or so. This is the COMBINED map I derived from a 2-factor basis AND a 3-factor basis. So imagine what I did for REBOOT, THE ENDING, times 2, then average again, for 75 days out.
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If this map does really well, you might see the final product one day. Otherwise, that's it for moi. Good luck, but don't require it. It's the only way to win this game.
"Real longs never close." - A guy with a sense of humor, probably lost serious money at some point in his career.
Why do I keep posting gold crashes, do I hate gold? No, I love gold. What I love even more is to annoy gold bugs. They are the ultimate longs, salt of the earth people. I want them to happy if they can just stop being so emotional. I know a lot about gold. I know more about gold then it is healthy to know. From HSBC to LBMA to COMEX, from Rick Rule to Jim Rickards to Avi Gilburt, from FDR to Nixon, from gold standard to petrodollar, from inflation to deflation, from Russia to China, if you've heard it, I've probably read it. This much I believe: it's in a giant bull market the next 5, 10 or 50 years. But if you're like me, you want to get rich BEFORE you die, right? And getting rich is hard, unless you know the future. To do that, I spent a good 25 years studying astrology. If you've been reading my material and think my work on gold trends is decent, it is NO WHERE close to my astrological skills in mapping people's lives. I spent a great deal of my life studying philosophy, sociology, economics, religion and politics IN ORDER TO LEARN ASTROLOGY. 100% true. What I found out in learning astrology was that you're going to be the person you were always going to be. The reason is that the driver for extraordinary change is "determination". And the most frustrating part is that THE CONDITIONS THAT PRODUCE GREAT DETERMINATION is NOT for you to determine, they exists the moment you are born determined significantly by your parents, their parents, and socioeconomic class. After I found that out, I quit astrology 25 years too late.
Somebody told me bitcoin is the new gold. Well, we'll see about that.
"What you're doing, it is fool's gold." - John Bolton to me circa 2014, you probably haven't heard about him.
There's this country song with lyrics about this guy who "lives like he's dying." Maybe great line a for a song if you're drunk and dramatic, but bad philosophy to live by. Why do I say that? Because it illustrates how out of touch people are. "Like you are dying"? Wtf do you mean? You ARE going to die, you and everybody that's ever lived or will live. It's just that we don't really appreciate what we have until we have to deal with losing it. I was always aware, since gaining consciousness, that one day, this will all end. So I set out to make the most of it. What I wish I had to begin with, is discipline. It wasn't that I agreed with John and let it annoyed me. It was that I knew I lacked the discipline to get where I wanted to go. That I knew. What I knew even before John, is one day I'm going to die one day anyway. SO WHAT DO I HAVE TO LOSE BY GOING FOR IT?
"If you're so smart, why aren't you rich?" - Bill Ackman, CEO Pershing Square Capital, execued $2.6 Billion in COVID March crash on 96:1 trade (options probably).
I've heard this quote before from people who weren't rich. Hearing it from Bill Ackman is much more convincing. Youtube him if you don't know who he is. This inconvenient truth is the reason why I developed this whole multi-angle regression layering with complete 36-45 layers of volume-weighted MACD crossover strategy If you are going to do something though, why try to be above average? It can't possibly bring you satisfaction. The truth is I know I can pick 2-4 fantastic gold trades per year. It is NOT TRADING the rest of the year when I'm not sure that I have problem with. That, you got to have discipline and determination, blah blah blah. This time, I think am really, REALLY close to something that can make up for not having that.
"I"m not going there to die. I'm going there to see if I really am alive." - Spike Spiegel, a fictional character. Like me, only except he's fictional.
I'm from Vietnam, where people use the word "play" to reference all individuals who are involved with speculating/trading/investing. In many areas of the East, the concept of self-determination is still a very new concept. I have always told them, "I don't know why you call it play." I did I enjoyed creating this whole system/strategy, but I wasn't doing it because I'm a fool.
Summer's finally here. A hot day in Kansas City today, and I mowed my lawn. I always wear this cowboy hat my father gave to me a long time ago. But don't have any cattle, yet.
---------------
FUNDAMENTALS: For many, many trades less than 100 days long, fundamentals can be a waste of time. That said, gold is not a safe haven. It is a safe haven IF YOU ARE A SPECULATOR (i.e. let's bet the house on NFP). For everyone else not gambling, it is a very, very real long term investment. In the absolute most basic term, it is anti-hegemonic currency, economically, geographically AND temporally (this last part is too long for this page). As states exit COVID shutdown and the economy stabilizes, gold will find difficulty holding investors' attention, especially during weak gold seasonality. July-August is a bottom for gold in many years. Google: gold 40-year seasonality chart. But, but, but the Fed, and infinity of money printing. Yes, that is theme for the REST OF OUR LIVES, just not necessarily the next 75 days. Time frame is so critical that in fact, most people's trade ideas are really correct, IT IS TIME FRAME THAT THEY GET WRONG. What will likely hold the market's attention in the next two months? COVID-19 wave 2? Maybe when it gets colder, my suspicion is too early. July, August, generally speaking, are hot months. Left-wing protests vs right-wing crackdown? People care about their income more than they do about race. If you disagree, you are not fit to be a trader. It's just not a convincing argument that Black Lives Matter protests will generate enough fear to drive up a globally held asset.
TECHNICALS: A little dirty secret for gold prices that not many people know is this: the linear regression curve and the Bollinger band with the same period of said curve AND the Bollinger band of with HALF the period of said curve, determines the bound of 99.5% of all gold prices, with the last 3 exceptions being: March 2020, October 1987, and some time in early 1970's (too lazy to find it for you). So 597 of the last 600 months. Safe to say it will hold the low from NFP dip to 1670's. That is to say, we are extremely oversold on a standard deviations basis. From an Elliot wave view, I still feel like wave 5 of 5 never happened. My Infinite Volume Oscillator is still saying this is a perfect-slam dunk, tripple-A, July 31st, 2019 fractal, only except STRONGER. My regressions are saying high next Friday, double top following week, and then sideways to down to August 20-ish 1613 or so. This is the COMBINED map I derived from a 2-factor basis AND a 3-factor basis. So imagine what I did for REBOOT, THE ENDING, times 2, then average again, for 75 days out.
---------------
If this map does really well, you might see the final product one day. Otherwise, that's it for moi. Good luck, but don't require it. It's the only way to win this game.
Nota
THIS IDEA IS CLOSES TUESDAY 6/09 END OF DAY BC OF BEARISH DIVERGENCE IN GC.Nota
FINAL UPDATE THIS IDEA CLOSED 8:30 AM TUESDAY 6/09.CLOSE YOUR LONGS. PREFERABLY BEFORE NOON CENTRAL TIME.
Nota
GO HERE: 
Nota
IDEA REOPENED 9 AM 6/11Nota
TOOK XAUUSD ROUTE AFTER FOMC.Nota
THURSDAY 10 AM 6/11So I can figure out the 2 options. But I can't predict which route it will take. There does not seem to be a consistent pattern at those critical points. If you came here from "PUT A FORK IN IT", it seems like the only option to win is bet both ways at those junctures.
Any way,The higher this goes, the likelier this becomes the route it will finally take. I will say that my method tends to do worse further out. So halftway through this chart it becomes less and less reliable.
Nota
I wrote REBOOT THE ENDING to close this out.I wrote REBOOT EPILOGUE to provide long term (to traders, intermediate to investors) guide.
I wrote PUT A FORK IN IT to hedge the FOMC split.
I wrote NO REST FOR THE WICKED in case it took the other route.
After "NO REST FOR THE WICKED", I am not doing anymore charts/ideas. I feel like that is complete responsibility to guide a trade to this juncture.
Nota
LAST UPDATE: So there it is, that's my work. It's got some hole I'm working on, but if you have a stronger system, more power to you. The reason I'm stopping is because tradingview is run by people who believe they can read your mind and know what you mean even though they don't. It's how thought crime policy get started. That's extremist ideology. Which is fine, they are a private business. They don't have to respect what you think as long as they pay the bills.
Left-wing ideology is becoming threatening in our society now. We have to stand up for what we believe in or they will take what freedom we have from us. There's a lot of people who protest in America now. But they've never lived in a dictatorial communist state where they have to starve everyday. But not their fault, they don't know better. Well, I've lived in one before. I am not going back to another one.
Nota
END OF UPDATES.Nota
LAST COMMENT:If you read through the whole REBOOT series. I nailed every trade including the two way on FOMC. If you only short Tuesday, I messaged you to cover before FOMC.
END OF COMMENTS
Nota
* If I get 76 requests. I will do a new chart on 7/15.Nota
* Post request in comment section.Nota
EXPIRATION: JUNE 20 TH, BC OF THIS IS CORRECT AFTER JUNE 20TH, ITS NOT BC OF PREDICTIVE POWER.AFTER RUNNING THE PROCESS MANY DIFFERENT ANGLES, THE PROBABILITY AFTER 6/20 IS REALLY WIDE. THIS IS IS STILL THE FAVORITE, BC ITS THE MOST LIKELY OUT OF 6 ROUTES COMING LESS THAN 30%.
.
Nota
**IT CAN BUY EXTRA TIME IF IT HUGS THE PRICE CLOSELY. BASICALLY HOLDING FAVORITE POSITION BY GETTING LUCKY. MEANING AFTER 6/20 IT CAN BECOME A STRONG FAVORITE, BUT ONLY BC IT KEEPS DRAWING 21 AT BLACK JACK.Nota
COMMENTARY ON PREDICTIVE/REACTIVE, XAUUSD VS GC, VOLUME, PIVO, POSITION SWINGING - GENERAL TOPIC NOT SPECIFICALLY RELATED TO THIS "TRADE IDEA" THAT I HAD NOWHERE BETTER TO WRITE.If you have followed my trade ideas even half way through, I am obvious presenting a predictive methodology. That said, reactive trading will make you more successful because (and this is my opinion) it is structured with defined entries and exits. I feel like defined exits are especially important because it's not "an open ended" situation. So I call myself a reactive trader that is building a predictive methodology. That does not mean I stop trading reactively. If you are an experienced trader, there are obvious situations where price action is totally skewed to one side. And there is no such thing as "a good loss". Loss is bad, period full stop. When you stick blindly to one position (bull vs bear is a false dichotomy, just stop wasting your time), you will not wake up it's past too late.
First a note on experience. A lot of traders know this break out scenario:
But here is a different look if you use Pham Infinite Regression Layering (PIRL), 4 hr bars.
Here is the 1/3 zoom, 80 min is 1/3 of 240, so we keep same regressions, just change colors.
And here is a better look from PIMA (similar to PIRL). This is a picture from something I am developing on investing.com (they use a poor man's tradingview platform).
invst.ly/r45r7
PIMA is better than PIRL at some situations. Overall, I am 2-1 in favor of PIRL bc of its versatility in so many different situations. But bc of limited testing and limited software, a decision was made a couple of years ago to go with LRC over SMA.
What I am trying to say is, you probably have an incomplete tool bag in this game. So I see a lot of reactive traders trash talk predictive methodology but they haven't seen the real deal yet. While I created these indicators myself, they are built on existing ideas like MA ribbons. I just devised a method to give structure.
Too tired right now, will write more another time. But what I really want to hash out is XAUUSD vs GC. Don't bash the argument until I provide the evidence.
... to be continued.
Nota
XAUUSD VS GC First some background.
For the longest time, I followed GC and not XAUUSD. So here's the first idea I posted back in March using GC1!. This was good for 3 weeks. Even though I wasn't showing the indicators, I had thought it better not to confused people with so many lines, which is my biggest complaint: How I am supposed to read your chart blah blah... well, they all have arrows.
I made this prediction using my infinite volume oscillator (IVO, later rechristened PIVO). And even though it missed the higher high, it got the 3 week low NO ONE ELSE CALLED AT THAT TIME, NO ONE!! I got laughed at on several trading rooms for suggesting it. But the idea here is volume indicators work, especially if it involves price. So with the help of GC as the driver, that call was correct. The second idea, I predicted move up too early (but it got the trend right, THE REST OF THE WAY). The third idea got the move up right, but was only good for 6-7 days.
And here is where XAUUSD came into play. This next chart is GC VS GLD VS XAUUSD for the break up.
ONLY XAUUSD from OANDA (not ICE, or FOREX, or Turkey) showed the volume that was possible for the massive break up. This is important in several different ways.
1) GC1! was doing the selling
2) XAUUSD (OANDA) was doing the buying
3) GLD is useless bc of
Nota
... from last... bc of:a) fees charged by State Street Global Advisors who own GLD etf (SPDR Gold Shares)
b) they reduce the value to the point that GLD is now 162.62, but if they didn't it would be 173.10
c) so this causes distortions in indicators that need the math to be right (i.e. ALL OF THEM)
d) without true volume information for the gold market as a whole, NO ONE INSTRUMENT CAN CORRECTLY PRESENT correct volume derivatives
e) BUT THAT DOES NOT MAKE THEM ALL USELESS, JUST ALMOST USELESS
f) I took 45 days to think about this and decided to use XAUUSD (OANDA) as the main choice, even though it was correct for this rally going now, it does NOT mean it will REMAIN CORRECT
g) hence, my last two REBOOT ideas (ENDING and EPILOGUE) does not rely on volume but just multi angle price regressions
to be continued... with position swinging in context of conviction vs time .
Nota
--- INBETWEENER --THIS IS PHAM REGRESSION STRATEGY: TEST RUN 1 APPLIED TO THIS IDEA, MORE UPDATED.
Nota
from last ... conviction vs time. I meant conviction vs time FRAME. Let's make a friendly wager. I will bet you right now that if you we go LONG AND SHORT AT 1735 WITH OCTOBER NOVEMBER TIME FRAME, BOTH TRADES WILL WIN. So bull vs bear is a false dichotomy and if that's hard to understand, you haven't been trading long enough.
What I mean is chat room traders love to argue bull v bear trade thesis and then provide 10 supporting evidence for a 5 year trade. And yet they don't why that's silly.
With gold right now, I have total conviction LONG for the next week. BUT,
I also have total conviction SHORT for the next 7 weeks.
So that's intermediate v short term time frame. The same thing can be applied to short term time frame v even shorter time frame. So I can long for 5 days but short a specific period of 16 hours in between. THERE IS NOTHING WRONG WITH THAT. This does NOT REQUIRE A CHANGE OF THESIS BC THE THESIS INVOLVES BOTH SITUATIONS PLAYING OUT.
to be continue...
Nota
--- INBETWEENER --- I will post a script for PIMA with its BB's soon, it's great for getting accustomed to my strategies, which can be ADAPTED TO YOUR STRATEGY FOR SUPPORT. You don't have to use it the way I suggest at all.
Nota
THIS IDEA HAS CLOSED EARLY, SAT 6/13. GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME OFF TO RECALIBRATE AND REINTRODUCE THINGS CORRECTLY.Nota
THANK YOU TO ALL THE PEOPLE WHO HAVE SUPPORTED!! I GOT SOMETHING SPECIAL IN THE TOOL BAG I'M WORKING ON.Nota
WILL PRESENT IT WHEN IT'S MORE REFINED AND USEFUL, UNTIL THEN. SEE YOU... SPACE COWBOYS.
Nota
(IN THE MEAN TIME, IT SHOULD HOLD TO AROUND 6/20-SOMETHING, I JUST WANT TO STOP TALKING ABOUT IT TO WORK ON SOMETHING MORE PSYCHOLOGICALLY ACCESSIBLE TO PEOPLE WHO DON'T HAVE THE EXPERIENCED PSYCHOLOGY OF TRADING, PLUS I WANT TO PROVE ON COUNT FOR COUNT SO YOU CAN SEE THAT THIS WORKS, HOW IT WORKS, AND HOW IT CAN BE EASILY ADAPTED TO WHAT YOU ARE YOU ARE USING WITHOUT HAVING TO THROW OUT THINGS YOU ALREADY KNOW AND LIKE, BC THAT'S ANNOYING TO DO. MORE FLEXIBILITY AND ACCESSIBILITY WILL MAKE MAKE MORE OPEN TO A WIDE AUDIENCE AND ETC...SEE YOU THEN.)Nota
PLEASE CHECK THIS OUT FOR BACKGROUND ON PRS. GOING FORWARD IT WILL BE BE GLOSSARY/INFO PAGE TO UNDERSTAND MY WORK. 
I'VE RELEASED THE PIMA INDICATOR HERE: IT WILL HELP YOU TRADE LIKE NO OTHER INDICATOR YOU HAVE EVER TRIED. IF YOU DON'T HAVE TIME, CHECK OUT THE EXAMPLES IN THE COMMENTS AND GET IT LATER. I PROMISE I WILL NOT WASTE YOUR TIME.
Nota
THEY TOOK ALL THREE SCRIPTS DOWN. SO ANNOYING. WILL BUT THEN BACK UP SOON.
Penafian
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