GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [June 24 - June 28]
Telah dikemas kini
On Friday (June 21), when data released by S&P Global showed that US PMI data for June were generally better than expected, the US Dollar strengthened and spot gold plummeted more than 38 USD.
Spot gold closed down 1.63% at $2,321.64/ounce; Spot gold prices decreased 0.47% this week, with a total trading range between 2,368.74 and 2,306.68 USD. COMEX gold futures closed down 1.45% at $2,373.80/ounce; COMEX silver futures closed down 4.03
U.S. business activity hit a 26-month high in June amid a recovery in employment and a significant reduction in price pressures. The US Dollar Index (Dxy), closed up 0.16% at 105.83 on Friday.
• Data released on Friday showed the June S&P Global Manufacturing PMI U.S. prelim was 51.7, the forecast was 51 and the previous was 51.3.
• The initial value of services PMI is 55.1, the expected value is 53.7 and the previous value is 54.8.
• The initial comprehensive PMI value is 54.6, the expected value is 53.5 and the previous value is 54.5. This is the highest level since April 2022, following May's 54.5.
According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders now see a 65.9% chance the Fed will cut interest rates in September, little changed from late Thursday. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold and this supports gold prices.
Market uncertainty remains extremely high as markets try to guess the Fed's next move.
About the Fed this past week
Several Fed officials spoke during the past trading week, with many emphasizing that more evidence of cooling inflation is needed before cutting interest rates. These statements supported the trend of the US Dollar during the week.
• Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Thursday that the Fed will bring inflation back to its 2% target, but estimated it could take 1 - 2 years.
• Chicago Fed President Goolsby said Thursday that policymakers will be able to cut interest rates if inflation continues to cool as it did last month. In an interview Thursday, Goolsby talked about the May consumer prices report, which showed core inflation fell for the second straight month.
• Fed Governor Coogler said Tuesday that it could be appropriate for the Fed to cut interest rates "later this year" if economic conditions develop as she expects.
• St. Fed President Louis Mussallem said in his first major policy speech that it may take "several quarters" of data to support an interest rate cut.
• New York Fed President Williams and Fed President Richmond Barkin were reluctant to provide a specific time frame for interest rate cuts, but all officials emphasized the important role of economic data in the process. policy promotion process.
• Philadelphia Fed President Harker said Monday that based on his current forecast, he thinks a rate cut this year is appropriate. This underscores the signal that interest rates may remain high.
• Over the weekend, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the Fed will wait until December before cutting interest rates.
Federal Reserve policymakers have kept borrowing costs at their highest level in nearly a year and appear to be in no hurry to lower them. Just last week, Fed officials expected just one rate cut in 2024, down from three forecast in March.
Notable economic data and events next week
Tuesday: US consumer confidence index
Wednesday: US new home sales index
Thursday: Final Q1 GDP, weekly jobless claims, core durable goods, US pending home sales index
Friday: PCE price index, personal income and spending
Analysis of technical prospects for
XAUUSD
On the daily chart, after gold failed to break the channel edge and the key technical point highlighted by readers in Friday's edition, it came under strong selling pressure.
Selling pressure to bring gold prices back into position is also very important for the uptrend from the price channel in the short term, the closing level is also around the technical point of 2,324 USD.
In terms of closing position, gold has conditions to continue falling with the target level possibly aiming at the original price point of 2,300 USD in the short term, however this will be more positive when the price channel is broken below.
Returning to the price channel and falling below the 21-day moving average (EMA21) is a negative sign for gold prices from a technical perspective. The price channel noticed is a downtrend.
The overall technical picture is constantly changing with very large price movements occurring regularly, and currently technical conditions are more supportive of the bearish possibility although there is still support in the pipeline. short term mentioned above.
In the near term, the technical outlook is temporarily inclined to the possibility of price decline with main pressure from EMA21 and Fibonacci retracement 0.236%. And the notable technical levels will be listed again as follows.
Support: 2,320 – 2,305 – 2,300USD
Resistance: 2,340 – 2,345USD
📌Short-term trading plan for next week: on the H1 chart, we will initially watch to sell around the 2342 mark, and buy if the price drops to around the 2260 mark.
Spot gold closed down 1.63% at $2,321.64/ounce; Spot gold prices decreased 0.47% this week, with a total trading range between 2,368.74 and 2,306.68 USD. COMEX gold futures closed down 1.45% at $2,373.80/ounce; COMEX silver futures closed down 4.03
U.S. business activity hit a 26-month high in June amid a recovery in employment and a significant reduction in price pressures. The US Dollar Index (Dxy), closed up 0.16% at 105.83 on Friday.
• Data released on Friday showed the June S&P Global Manufacturing PMI U.S. prelim was 51.7, the forecast was 51 and the previous was 51.3.
• The initial value of services PMI is 55.1, the expected value is 53.7 and the previous value is 54.8.
• The initial comprehensive PMI value is 54.6, the expected value is 53.5 and the previous value is 54.5. This is the highest level since April 2022, following May's 54.5.
According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders now see a 65.9% chance the Fed will cut interest rates in September, little changed from late Thursday. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold and this supports gold prices.
Market uncertainty remains extremely high as markets try to guess the Fed's next move.
About the Fed this past week
Several Fed officials spoke during the past trading week, with many emphasizing that more evidence of cooling inflation is needed before cutting interest rates. These statements supported the trend of the US Dollar during the week.
• Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Thursday that the Fed will bring inflation back to its 2% target, but estimated it could take 1 - 2 years.
• Chicago Fed President Goolsby said Thursday that policymakers will be able to cut interest rates if inflation continues to cool as it did last month. In an interview Thursday, Goolsby talked about the May consumer prices report, which showed core inflation fell for the second straight month.
• Fed Governor Coogler said Tuesday that it could be appropriate for the Fed to cut interest rates "later this year" if economic conditions develop as she expects.
• St. Fed President Louis Mussallem said in his first major policy speech that it may take "several quarters" of data to support an interest rate cut.
• New York Fed President Williams and Fed President Richmond Barkin were reluctant to provide a specific time frame for interest rate cuts, but all officials emphasized the important role of economic data in the process. policy promotion process.
• Philadelphia Fed President Harker said Monday that based on his current forecast, he thinks a rate cut this year is appropriate. This underscores the signal that interest rates may remain high.
• Over the weekend, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the Fed will wait until December before cutting interest rates.
Federal Reserve policymakers have kept borrowing costs at their highest level in nearly a year and appear to be in no hurry to lower them. Just last week, Fed officials expected just one rate cut in 2024, down from three forecast in March.
Notable economic data and events next week
Tuesday: US consumer confidence index
Wednesday: US new home sales index
Thursday: Final Q1 GDP, weekly jobless claims, core durable goods, US pending home sales index
Friday: PCE price index, personal income and spending
Analysis of technical prospects for
XAUUSD On the daily chart, after gold failed to break the channel edge and the key technical point highlighted by readers in Friday's edition, it came under strong selling pressure.
Selling pressure to bring gold prices back into position is also very important for the uptrend from the price channel in the short term, the closing level is also around the technical point of 2,324 USD.
In terms of closing position, gold has conditions to continue falling with the target level possibly aiming at the original price point of 2,300 USD in the short term, however this will be more positive when the price channel is broken below.
Returning to the price channel and falling below the 21-day moving average (EMA21) is a negative sign for gold prices from a technical perspective. The price channel noticed is a downtrend.
The overall technical picture is constantly changing with very large price movements occurring regularly, and currently technical conditions are more supportive of the bearish possibility although there is still support in the pipeline. short term mentioned above.
In the near term, the technical outlook is temporarily inclined to the possibility of price decline with main pressure from EMA21 and Fibonacci retracement 0.236%. And the notable technical levels will be listed again as follows.
Support: 2,320 – 2,305 – 2,300USD
Resistance: 2,340 – 2,345USD
📌Short-term trading plan for next week: on the H1 chart, we will initially watch to sell around the 2342 mark, and buy if the price drops to around the 2260 mark.
Nota
- XAUUSD cannot sustain above 2,350 USD per troy ounce. Prices retraced and began consolidating around $2,300 per troy ounce, just above support.- If XAUUSD sustains above $2,300 per troy ounce, the price could test $2,350 and the high set on June 7.
- However, if XAUUSD trends below the $2,300 per troy ounce zone, the price could drop to the next psychological support level.
Nota
US officials fear that war could break out between Israel and Hezbollah, between political parties and heavily armed militias in Lebanon backed by Iran. The war in Gaza has stirred long-standing conflicts with Hezbollah and other Iran-backed proxy groups in the Middle East.Nota
On the international market, today's gold price reached 2,331 USD/ounce, an increase of 12 USD compared to the previous session. World gold prices increased when interest rates on 10-year US Treasury bonds decreased. This makes gold, which is a non-interest-bearing asset, more attractive to other investment channels.Nota
Nota
🟢In the US, investors contending with uncertainty related to inflation, interest rates and geopolitics are already bracing for volatility that could accompany the presidential campaign and November election.Nota
- If XAUUSD holds above $2,300/ounce, the price could retest its previous swing high around $2,350/ounce before heading towards resistance at $2,400/ounce.- On the contrary, XAUUSD could retest the previous swing bottom at around 2,275-2,285 USD/ounce if the price closes below the support level.
Nota
World gold prices plummeted to their lowest level in 2 weeks, penetrating the important psychological threshold of 2,300 USD/oz, as the USD increased sharply while the market waited for an important US inflation report. Some experts believe that the toughness of US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials and the rise of the USD will continue to put downward pressure on gold prices in the short term, but the gold price trend may change. should be clearer from Friday.Nota
🟡Gold prices stabilized today after falling to the lowest level in two weeks in the previous session, with investors awaiting US inflation data in search of indications about the path of the US Federal Reserve reducing interest rates.Nota
🟢One bank expects gold prices to fall to this level!After gold prices (XAU/USD) rose earlier in the year, analysts at ABN AMRO Bank were cautious about their outlook on gold prices and maintained their forecasts at $2,000 per ounce by December 2024.
Nota
Gold prices rose more than 1% on Thursday (June 27) from a more than two-week low hit in the previous session, as the dollar weakened and attention turned to key US inflation data to looking for clues about the policy roadmap of the US Federal Reserve (Fed).Nota
🟡Gold prices are declining, but they are heading to record an increase for the third quarter in a row, at a time when investors are awaiting US inflation data scheduled to be released later today.- Gold in spot transactions fell 0.3% to $2,321.18 per ounce
- Gold prices increased by about 4% during the second quarter of 2024
Nota
(Focus) US core PCE: 0.1% m/m (Forecast: 0.1%. Previous: 0.2%)Canadian GDP: 0.3 % m/m (Forecast: 0.3%. Previous: 0.0%)
Nota
Gold price closed the trading week at 2,326 USD/ounce, a slight increase of about 5 USD/ounce compared to the end of last week.Precious metals on the international exchange have not been able to break out in the short term as the USD continues to maintain a high level. The USD index currently stands around 105.87 points, up 1.14% over the previous month.
Nota
On the daily chart, gold recovered but the early recovery was beaten by the target resistance area presented to readers in the previous issue of 2,340 – 2,345 USD, the price area of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement and technical level 2,345USD.Gold's weekly close still within the price channel shows that the downtrend remains stable, while price activity returning below the EMA21 also makes this moving average the closest current resistance for gold. with the price of gold technically on the daily chart.
Nota
World gold prices started a new trading week this morning (July 1) in a slightly decreasing state. After rising strongly in the second quarter and the first half of the year, gold prices have leveled off recently and experts predict they will continue to struggle in the short term.Nota
Goldman Sachs predicts when and how much the US Federal Reserve will cut interest ratesTwo analysts at the famous American investment bank, Goldman Sachs, presented their expectations for the steps of the US Federal Reserve regarding the date and number of times it will cut interest rates during the bank’s meetings this year.
Nota
🔴Fed says it’s not ready to cut rates until ‘greater confidence’ inflation is moving to 2% goal.Nota
The dollar declines after interest rate cut hopes riseThe US dollar fell in early European trade on Thursday as weak economic data raised expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while the pound rose as the UK headed to the polls.
At 13:34 Riyadh time, the dollar index, which measures the US currency against a basket of six other currencies, was trading 0.15% lower at 104.907, continuing the sharp declines seen overnight.
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