Emas Semerta / Dolar A.S.Panjang
Waiting on Confirmation That Lows Are in Place
Telah dikemas kini
Rather than go through the various reasons why I believed a low was close, below are some of the comment I posted over the past week:
"New Stimulus pending, 'December' started, while Gold and Silver near multi-month lows, extreme oversold, sentiment in the toilet, physical scarcity rising. Risk/reward is pretty obvious down here imho."
"The Banks monitor the same technical levels as we do. They also monitor other tools such as sentiment which is circling the toilet bowl right now, typically a great sign for a major low. So the more despair, the better, and there's plenty of it here."
"1860 Gold. 1850 was key support which means 1860 is now key resistance. We break there with follow thru above 1900 and final confirmation >1966, then the bottom is in imho. I'll be buying on break of 1860 with stop below there. Plenty of upside thereafter if we continue higher."
Gold bottomed on November 30. At least, that is how it looks so far. I still maintain that we need to see a break of former support, now resistance, at 1860 to signal the bottom is in place. Confirmation above 1900 and 1966 in particular are the closest we’ll get to certainty.
In the meantime, I am looking for the top of this nascent rally. It may already be in place at 1847 or we could see a test of 1860 first before falling back. Frankly as long as we remain above 1767, then I am agnostic to what price Gold decides to turn up from. At that point, we would have our wave 2 in place, following wave 1. However, we would still need to see a break of 1860 or higher depending on what the peak of wave 1 turns out to be. If this scenario plays out as described, then we’re likely heading up to new highs.
On the contrary, below 1767 and it’s back to the drawing board. But 1767 just happens to be the 50% retracement of the entire rally from 1451 in March to the peak of 2089.
GDX
We got the fake breakout to the upside in November and now the forecasted fake breakout to the downside. While the risk of a lower low to 31 remains, a break above the prior high of 36.35 back on November 20 should signal the all-clear to the upside. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see a pullback ahead of that to around mid to low 34.
Conclusion
At the end of the day, what I am looking for is a peak followed by a higher low then follow thru to the upside breaking the prior peak, i.e., a higher high, signaling the all clear for the move up to new highs across the precious metals and miners complex.
Stepping back to the bigger picture, we got this headline today:
S&P Hits Record, Dow Soars Over 30,000 After McConnell Says "We Can Do This... Compromise Within Reach"
As I have said since July, when we get new and sizeable fiscal stimulus quickly followed by more monetary stimulus, just as we did in March, precious metals and miners will take off again to new highs. It looks like we’re close from a technical, sentiment, Elliot Wave, and fundamental perspective.
"New Stimulus pending, 'December' started, while Gold and Silver near multi-month lows, extreme oversold, sentiment in the toilet, physical scarcity rising. Risk/reward is pretty obvious down here imho."
"The Banks monitor the same technical levels as we do. They also monitor other tools such as sentiment which is circling the toilet bowl right now, typically a great sign for a major low. So the more despair, the better, and there's plenty of it here."
"1860 Gold. 1850 was key support which means 1860 is now key resistance. We break there with follow thru above 1900 and final confirmation >1966, then the bottom is in imho. I'll be buying on break of 1860 with stop below there. Plenty of upside thereafter if we continue higher."
Gold bottomed on November 30. At least, that is how it looks so far. I still maintain that we need to see a break of former support, now resistance, at 1860 to signal the bottom is in place. Confirmation above 1900 and 1966 in particular are the closest we’ll get to certainty.
In the meantime, I am looking for the top of this nascent rally. It may already be in place at 1847 or we could see a test of 1860 first before falling back. Frankly as long as we remain above 1767, then I am agnostic to what price Gold decides to turn up from. At that point, we would have our wave 2 in place, following wave 1. However, we would still need to see a break of 1860 or higher depending on what the peak of wave 1 turns out to be. If this scenario plays out as described, then we’re likely heading up to new highs.
On the contrary, below 1767 and it’s back to the drawing board. But 1767 just happens to be the 50% retracement of the entire rally from 1451 in March to the peak of 2089.
GDX
We got the fake breakout to the upside in November and now the forecasted fake breakout to the downside. While the risk of a lower low to 31 remains, a break above the prior high of 36.35 back on November 20 should signal the all-clear to the upside. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see a pullback ahead of that to around mid to low 34.
Conclusion
At the end of the day, what I am looking for is a peak followed by a higher low then follow thru to the upside breaking the prior peak, i.e., a higher high, signaling the all clear for the move up to new highs across the precious metals and miners complex.
Stepping back to the bigger picture, we got this headline today:
S&P Hits Record, Dow Soars Over 30,000 After McConnell Says "We Can Do This... Compromise Within Reach"
As I have said since July, when we get new and sizeable fiscal stimulus quickly followed by more monetary stimulus, just as we did in March, precious metals and miners will take off again to new highs. It looks like we’re close from a technical, sentiment, Elliot Wave, and fundamental perspective.
Nota
We broke 1860, have now backtested it twice and held. So far, so good. Although the odds have increased that the bottom is in place, I do not rule out a drop back below 1860 or a lower low "yet" until we take out 1900 and the big resistance at 1966. Target ~2300 or higherNota
1830s could be level to load up on Gold. 23s in the Silver. Remember, a higher high followed by a higher low then another higher high. Once the low is established here, a break of 1880 could signal that we're off to the races to the upside.Nota
1832 bottom in Gold so far. Reached 23.83 in Silver. So far, so good. Now need to take out 1880 and 25 next. Key levels on the upside for the all-clear are 1900 and 1966 in Gold and 26.14 in Silver... IMHO. Btw, until we break those levels on the upside, the market remains a 2-way street for now, i.e. it could still go either way. Stating the obvious but with clear levels to monitor.Nota
While paper prices remain under pressure, physical prices remain relatively flat by comparison. The question is: which will win out, paper or physical? If the rally post March is anything to go by, it will be physical leading the charge higher.Nota
https://youtu.be/a9t7ygc6EsY"The Gold Bottom is In" - Gary Savage.
While the risk remains for one more lower low, I share Gary's view that we're about to bottom and head higher over this month/next. 1650 is my line in the sand on the downside.
Nota
1650 was my line in the sand, meaning where I reconsider the whole bull market, NOT that it was my target on the downside.Nota
t.co/lLOVed1ciO?amp=1Goldman Sachs finalized its takeover of the Perth Mint’s 500m New York-listed gold ETF. This represents Goldman Sachs' first commodity-backed ETF.
The big questions are: Why and why now?
Nota
Snooze day in metals and miners which is a good thing. We need to take a short breath after some good gains.Nota
Gold and Silver spiked overnight on news of new stimulus. Then the dollar shot higher as the massive shorts were squeezed. What was most interesting to me was where Gold bottomed: "1860" a key pivot level.
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