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Gold long Idea: XAUUSD to 1316

Telah dikemas kini

Gold is at as much technical support as it can possibly have.

Multiple 61 Fibonacci ratios, some from every long timeframes.

An EW Wave 5 looks to be near completion,

A small descending wedge is forming at expected support zone.

I will be watching for breach of that wedge, OR, a spike below support indicating a run on stops.

NOT buying yet, just planning and observing.

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Fighting the Wedge, thinking it might spike down to take stops then spring up, maybe

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Tiny breach of wedge. Hope to see something like this now

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guess that breakout of wedge was fake.
So now I am looking for fake break down to grab stops below such obvious support, that a spike up to prevent the closed longs from getting back in.

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That line at 1286.17

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is the 618 fib of this:

I expect 'they' will break it to grab stops below, then spike up.
If not spike down that spike up immediately after, then Gold is hurting bad :(

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618 line in sand appears to be holding.
I am buying some now (20%) of my allotted trade amount, holding the rest for that possible spike down

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Well we got a decent bounce.
Maybe just end of week profit taking etc.
But if we are start a turn the tide, THIS is a great place to start!

Take a closer look at the support, those fibs held PRECISELY.
Notice the lack of any ''round'' number to the price at those sharp turning points.

I am currently evaluating the bounce, and will post another update with my findings (or lack there of).
But so far so good, a significant bounce that looks like an impulse (perhaps actual buying as well as short covering) ?

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:
Here are my observations thus far on the chart pic:

Of course, given that was a Friday after a massive drop,
I would have hoped for a more powerful bounce.
Or at least a first impulse that measured 'aggressive'.

BUT a perfect structure 5 impulse might imply buying
as opposed to just covering shorts, which I think
should have been just one spike up or an ABC.

Monday will be the key day to observe.
Does it retrace down to or below w4?
Or does it go directly to resistance?

Those two answers is what I will be waiting for.

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Gold gapped DOWN, due to US news about postponing Trade War with China. Watching two key support zones which might stop it from testing the very bottom again.

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First support zone being tested

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Limping along the support zone.
Would like to see at least gap close.
If not, a bad sign :(

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Support holding for now with a small bounce.
Hopefully gap close at least, if not higher

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Uh oh, the Mighty Dollar too strong.
Looks like this support will break;
Will watch behavior around next one down I guess.

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Not good. Second support going.

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Support might be turning into resistance now

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Trapped with air running out :(

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Maybe we have finished an ABCDE
But no signs of strength yet

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Gold obeying all road signs.
But there are no buyers today.

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Uh oh, this could be a real quick ride to the basement if London sells.

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Yikes. Man Overboard with no water in the pool?

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no way! that lonely little 1.618 is going to bounce it?
I doubt it :(

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Very strong downward pressure.
Not signs of buying yet.
Based on the elongation of EW waves, these are the next three possible support zones I see

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Maybe that dip below supports was a bear trap, as originally thought might happen.
The bounce is looking pretty good, good Fib structure, and using previous supports.
So the US bought today. Lets see what Asia and Europe does tonight.

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Resistance zone to watch.
of course 1300 will be tough one.

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Currently waiting to gauge the strength of the requisite drop after the climb out of bottom. If the retrace bounces up from either of my support zones, then I am still bullish. Otherwise, I will close my long upon breach of lower support, and look to re-enter after a clear bottom has been established

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Micro pullback going as expected.
Might have found some support at the 4.618 fib

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Hovering in my first possible bounce zone.
I am doubtful but optimistic.

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Wee bit of a bounce, but smacked into the 618's above.

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Well, here we are, at a critical juncture.

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Interesting bounce. Now testing previous support zone.
Not sure what caused the bounce (other than news) because I do not see anything in my calculations that would have said a likely price to bounce. Yet, will investigate. Either I am missing something, or this down move isn;t done (maybe just a retest of ceiling before diving again)?

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.
Nice! Ran through ceiling and even pierced the two 618's above which were resistance. If she can hold it up there, EU and UK might buy at such good prices especially after US bought today.

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Gold at first resistance.
7.618 fib, plus monthly Pivot.
Expecting a pull back here.

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Since my last post above, Gold did pull back.
But looks like a nice ABC retrace again.
I am still looking for a re-test of support before attacking 1300 again.

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Nice! Spike above local resistance looks great, and perfect FIB structure.
It might be a stop hunt, but such perfect fib adherence points to actual buying imo.

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My microscope says the bounce looking good so far.
If we can maintain this bounce from the 5.618 above resistance, then charge to 1300 looks viable

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Two pictures above, I posted a possible retest of support.
Looks like the retest bounced from local support and not the long term one.
If this bounce holds, and bulls attack 1300, I will be happy

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Nice spike about 1300, maybe a stop squeeze?
What happens if/when it comes back to 1300 will be telling.
We also have a well consolidated support zone in the 1296 area below.
So we might be on the start of an upswing.

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Gold gap'ed down on open.
Previous Fib zones seem to be holding for now.
But I expect that gap to play out in 5 waves.

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wow, the path of travel was different than expected,
BUT those 618's show in previous update are being tested one by one.
I am formulating a new plan based on the movements thus far.

EuroMotif

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