XAU/USD bearish dominance continues.
On Tuesday, the gold price fell back on the bear trail due to the re-gathering strength of the US Dollar. The market board saw a dominant trend of reassessing the Federal Reserve future rate hike path in a hawkish way. XAU/USD broke a five-day losing streak on Monday, which was just a small retracement on the way of the continuing downtrend for gold price. The bright metal is trading close to the round $1,800 figure, which provides immediate and psychological support.
This week, a bunch of mid-tier United States macroeconomic releases could help shape how much more room gold price can have to the downside ahead of the crucial March 22 Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting. The market will be closely monitoring the next two weeks with Nonfarm Payrolls and Consumer Price Index releases, which should be more impactful. The US central bank will probably take all the data into account before delivering its next monetary policy plan, famously known as the dot plot.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Survey for February is the next big US macroeconomic release scheduled for 15:00 GMT, and will be scrutinized for more direction. Rather than the headline Consumer Confidence index, the one-year consumer inflation expectations could trigger a reaction. The US Dollar could lose interest and help Gold price stage a short-term recovery and vice versa, in case there is a pullback in this figure.
On Monday, the US Census Bureau released the Durable Goods Orders data for January, which came out mixed and did not stage a big reaction from the markets. Gold price reacted modest-but-positively to this release as the US Dollar was somewhat sold across the board.
The ISM will publish the Manufacturing PMI and the Services PMI on Wednesday and Friday, respectively, both at 15 GMT, which could be the most important releases of the week. If the ISM Services PMI report reaffirms that rising wage costs are feeding into accelerating price pressures in the sector, the US Dollar is likely to hold its ground against Gold. Hence, the Prices Paid Index component will be watched closely by market participants.
The CME Group FedWatch Tool shows that markets are fully pricing in at least two more 25 basis points Federal Reserve rate hikes in March and May. Additionally, the probability of the Fed holding the policy rate unchanged in June stands at 25%. The market positioning suggests that the US Dollar doesn't have a lot of room on the upside, at least until the February jobs report and inflation data confirm or refute one more 25-bps hike in June.
Investors will be watching the US Treasury bond yields, and 4% aligns as key resistance for the 10-year US T-bond yield. There could be a technical correction if that level stays intact. In that scenario, Gold price could turn north due to the inverse correlation with the US Treasury yields.
This week, a bunch of mid-tier United States macroeconomic releases could help shape how much more room gold price can have to the downside ahead of the crucial March 22 Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting. The market will be closely monitoring the next two weeks with Nonfarm Payrolls and Consumer Price Index releases, which should be more impactful. The US central bank will probably take all the data into account before delivering its next monetary policy plan, famously known as the dot plot.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Survey for February is the next big US macroeconomic release scheduled for 15:00 GMT, and will be scrutinized for more direction. Rather than the headline Consumer Confidence index, the one-year consumer inflation expectations could trigger a reaction. The US Dollar could lose interest and help Gold price stage a short-term recovery and vice versa, in case there is a pullback in this figure.
On Monday, the US Census Bureau released the Durable Goods Orders data for January, which came out mixed and did not stage a big reaction from the markets. Gold price reacted modest-but-positively to this release as the US Dollar was somewhat sold across the board.
The ISM will publish the Manufacturing PMI and the Services PMI on Wednesday and Friday, respectively, both at 15 GMT, which could be the most important releases of the week. If the ISM Services PMI report reaffirms that rising wage costs are feeding into accelerating price pressures in the sector, the US Dollar is likely to hold its ground against Gold. Hence, the Prices Paid Index component will be watched closely by market participants.
The CME Group FedWatch Tool shows that markets are fully pricing in at least two more 25 basis points Federal Reserve rate hikes in March and May. Additionally, the probability of the Fed holding the policy rate unchanged in June stands at 25%. The market positioning suggests that the US Dollar doesn't have a lot of room on the upside, at least until the February jobs report and inflation data confirm or refute one more 25-bps hike in June.
Investors will be watching the US Treasury bond yields, and 4% aligns as key resistance for the 10-year US T-bond yield. There could be a technical correction if that level stays intact. In that scenario, Gold price could turn north due to the inverse correlation with the US Treasury yields.
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