XAU/USD Above $2,500, But Is a Drop Coming?

26 Ogo

The gold price (XAU/USD) has maintained a solid position above the psychological support level of $2,500 at the start of the week. This increase is supported by growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve will begin lowering borrowing costs in September. From a short-term technical perspective, the gold price still suggests upside risks, especially if buyers maintain control above the triangle support, which was previously resistance, at $2,470.

Technical Analysis
The gold price recently confirmed a bullish breakout from a symmetrical triangle, indicating further gains. Gold buyers need to reclaim the all-time high of $2,532 to face the next key barrier at $2,600.
If the gold price fails to sustain current levels, a correction could occur towards the $2,500 threshold. A sustained break below $2,485 would expose the market to further declines, down to the critical support at $2,470.

Fundamental Factors
The positive tone surrounding the gold price is mainly attributed to the sustained weakness of the US dollar and negative US Treasury yields, following dovish remarks by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Powell clearly confirmed that the Fed's easing cycle will begin in September, signaling a possible rate reduction. The market currently sees a 38% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut and a 62% probability of a 25 basis point cut, as indicated by the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.

In a low-interest-rate environment, gold, which does not yield interest, tends to benefit. Additionally, the precious metal, considered a safe haven, is capitalizing on escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly after Israel's preemptive airstrike on Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and the lack of an agreement in ceasefire talks in Cairo.

Future Outlook
With the support of favorable fundamental factors and a technical setup that favors buyers, the gold price remains exposed to upside risks. The next significant move could be driven by the US Durable Goods Orders data, expected later on Monday.

29 Ogo

Nota

The price is in an accumulation phase. The goal now is to wait for the price to grab liquidity above the last weekly high. Then, it will be important to evaluate a possible short entry with a target within the FVG below, at the $2,480 level.