Emas Semerta / Dolar A.S.Panjang
3000 BY HALLOWEEN, DRAFT 10-3, STILL ALIVE
Where the bold red, black, and blue lines are is the critical window we are at. For this route to work, the black line MUST HOLD FOR NEXT 36 HOURS so price can have a shot at a new high before a 115 pt check down. The problem is that we dropped 60 from the high, so with a tight window to work with, it doesn't seem realistic to get a new high. But without a new high, the following check down seems incomplete even at 2593. Long story short:
1) trend maps say the route to 3000 is very much alive
2) but I am not sure what the rule is for Thu-Fri check down
3) in theory, it doesn't have to be a whole 110-120 pts
4) but I could only call that AFTER THE FACT
5) going into the correction, if we do not get a new high...
6) we are supposed to hit 2570
7) even though trend maps say that is highly unlikely
8) so we're going to find out which rules matter more
9) at this time, I can only expect the same high Wed night
10) or first hours of Thursday
1) trend maps say the route to 3000 is very much alive
2) but I am not sure what the rule is for Thu-Fri check down
3) in theory, it doesn't have to be a whole 110-120 pts
4) but I could only call that AFTER THE FACT
5) going into the correction, if we do not get a new high...
6) we are supposed to hit 2570
7) even though trend maps say that is highly unlikely
8) so we're going to find out which rules matter more
9) at this time, I can only expect the same high Wed night
10) or first hours of Thursday
Nota
6:28 PM, 9/30: THE DEAL BREAKER IS
a) we need price to break ALL 3 RED LINES
b) and bold black line needs to hold until Wednesday night
c) so that's 52 hours, not 36...
d) I don't know what I was thinking
e) but that's it
Nota
f) I know what that was..
g) if that line holds for 36 hours, then price is favored for 2685
h) and at least coin-flipping for a new high
Nota
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11:42 PM 2634.XX need more strength here
1) or we will lose the line
2) and we cant lose that line
3) the shifting creates a new pattern
4) deal with it tomorrow
Nota
10/01, 1:20 AM ET, 2642.50, play chart at top, we are 2nd red line
1) the goal is the take out 3 red lines while holding bold black line
2) at least to Wed NY open but preferably Wed night
3) I'm going to bed, and it looks okay
4) but insofar since 2624, we haven't zigzagged yet...
5) and it's ok if we do zigzag
6) as long as we hold bold black line we will be favored to challenge 2685
7) and a new high Wed night or Thur AM
Nota
3:05 AM, 2644.35, under 2639 is a problem
a) so watch out if price slips under 2639
b) I can't update until morning
Nota
3:27 am, 2643.60, I see the problem this window...
a) but I can't update now
b) I realize that the route doesn't have to look like this
c) and probably won't
d) so plans are off until I update
Nota
e) 3:53, it doesn't have to but it can
f) I don't know that it "probably won't""
g) should not have said that
Nota
7:18 AM, what we want to see for total follow through:
Nota
1) continuing in chart above, plus as a reminder...
2) before I posted draft 10-1 for 3000 BY HALLOWEEN
3) the JUST RIGHT NOW #001 was (replay this):
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4) so if price does not at least tag red line (and it hasn't)
5) we that worse case scenario is still "in the air" so to speak
Nota
6) this gray area resolves late tonightNota
7) 7:55, by late tonight, meaning the sideways stall
8) or check down
9) this goes wo saying...
10) a move above 2660 AND HOLD basically guarantees...
11) 2706_2720
Nota
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12) so in chart above, doing that would deliver 2705
13) if price outperforms that box, that means above 2705 would be in play
14) for WED NIGHT and first 3 hours of Thursday
Nota
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9:48, tagged 2668! So I am sons dentist so cant comment a lot.
1) read previous notes about what that means
2) obviously need new route map
3) will post when I have something
Nota
11:25, 2664.99, so draft 10-1 was overall idea and...
1) draft 10-2 (here, obviously off) had 2756 high bc medium term momentum
2) in chart above, I had this route bc medium term momentum does not...
3) expire until about 3 AM Thursdday
4) but when I posted this, short term momentum (bearish move to 2624) was incomplete
5) so what do we know now?
6) price has exceeded all expectations by breaking the 3 red lines in chart at top
7) obviously holding black line
8) and broke through intraday vol limits at 2656 AND channel limit at 2660
9) extended to 2672-ish, and may be still higher before end of day
10) previous all time high is only 2685
11) so at beginning of this post, I wrote that can't call higher than 2685 bc mainly
12) we just had a 60 pt drop
13) it would be weird to run all the way up just told..
14) drop again 115-120 after the top
15) BUT THAT IS WHAT IS HAPPENING
16) so obviously the first target is 2706
17) we have enough momentum AND TIME to get past 2706 the list of which are:
a) 2713
b) 2723
c) 2737
d) obviously 2756 but that would be really weird
Nota
18) so besides needing draft 10-4
19) my thoughts are now on 2737
20) that's pretty much all there is to say
21) so this post has ended and I'll post 10-4 whenever I have it
Nota
22) and obviously 3000 definitely on the table for 10/31
23) the question is WHICH ROUTE DO WE TAKE
24) long story short, the overall pattern has not changed:
a) move to new all time high
b) down 110-120 pts
c) and all the way up
d) 2800s by 10/17
e) and 3000 by 10/31
Nota
f) no, 2737 too high, so if higher than 2706....
g) then the 2713-2723 definite much more reasonable
Nota
HERE IS DRAFT 10-4:
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