GOLD "XAUUSD" Market Forecast for Friday and coming Week

14 Sep 2023

Today, the gold market broke structure under the 1905 level and retraced back into the most recent supply zone at 1909 - 1911 without breaking it upwards. This behavior suggests a continued downward trajectory, potentially breaking the psychological 1900 level and reaching our main demand zone at 1894 - 1889. However, should the market break above this recent supply zone in tomorrow's Asian session or the early hours of the London session a scenario I consider unlikely it may touch the 1918 - 1921 supply zone to grab liquidity before descending to the 1894 - 1889 levels.

The institutional bias remains bearish, although the pace of the bearish run appears to be slowing compared to previous days. While it's uncertain, the expected demand zone at 1894 - 1889 could trigger a strong market reaction in the coming week, potentially initiating a solid bull run.

It's worth noting that if the market fails to break the 1900 level and closes the week above it, this could independently set a bullish bias. As tomorrow is Friday, the actions of major financial institutions remain unpredictable. Therefore, I advise practicing caution and avoiding impulsive trades without proper price action confirmation.

15 Sep 2023

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Looking back at yesterday's analysis, I am feeling foolish

The market took a turn for the scenario I deemed less likely, given the institutional selling pressure at the time.

However, today's London open was a revelation. With retail bias at its peak towards a bearish run and a noticeable lack of selling momentum, it became evident that the banks were setting a trap to propel the market upwards. Although I did scalped in sell at London open and immediately took my profits as soon I felt that the Banks will be heavily buying into the market.

The ensuing bull run was so robust that it shattered all supply zones, halting only at the 1928 - 1930 zone "The last bastion" before the daily supply area. If this bullish momentum persists, we could see the market break through the daily supply zone, potentially initiating a new bull run that could reach unprecedented highs.

As of now, the high-timeframe (HTF) bias remains bearish and will not shift unless the market crosses and sustains above the 1953 level.

This week has been challenging, yet profitable. While I fell short of my usual weekly target of a 5% equity gain, I managed to secure a 3.8% increase. Interestingly, the most significant profits came from today's volatile market conditions.

My advice to fellow traders is straightforward: trade in the market's direction, not against it. Detach yourself from biases, speculations, and retail narratives. Mastery of technical market knowledge, coupled with a focus on the bigger picture, is essential. Remember, if retail sentiment leans heavily in one direction, it doesn't guarantee the market will follow. The true market movers often trade against retail sentiment.

Momentum, when aligned with price action, serves as a critical indicator to distinguish market manipulation from genuine trends.

May we all learn from our experiences and continue to profit, either financially or in market wisdom. Wishing everyone a successful trading journey and a fantastic weekend ahead.