XAU/USD (Gold) Multi-Timeframe Analysis – March 3, 2025

a comprehensive trading strategy.

## **1. Market Structure Overview (Multi-Timeframe)**
### **M30 (30-Minute Chart)**
- **Equilibrium Zone (~$2,870 - $2,875)** is being tested.
- **Previous Day Low (PDL) ~$2,825 is intact**.
- **Minor bullish CHoCH (Change of Character) observed**, suggesting a possible retracement.

### **H1 (1-Hour Chart)**
- **Bearish Break of Structure (BOS) confirms continued downside bias**.
- **Premium Zone (~$2,920 - $2,950) remains a strong resistance**.
- **Retracement to equilibrium ($2,875 - $2,885) is likely before further downside**.

### **H4 (4-Hour Chart)**
- **Price rejected from the previous weak low (~$2,825)**.
- **Liquidity grab occurred, but market remains bearish**.
- **Potential retest of previous support at $2,885 - $2,900 before continuing down**.

### **D1 (Daily Chart)**
- **Strong BOS confirmed bearish sentiment**.
- **Premium rejection zone ~$2,950 remains strong**.
- **If price stays below $2,900, further downside to $2,800 - $2,780 is possible**.

---

## **2. Expected Scenarios & Probability**
### **Scenario 1: Bearish Continuation (70% Probability)**
- If price **rejects $2,880 - $2,885**, the downtrend is expected to continue.
- **Target: $2,840 - $2,825**.
- **Confirmation:** A bearish candlestick formation in the **$2,875 - $2,885 zone**.

### **Scenario 2: Short-Term Bullish Retracement (30% Probability)**
- If price holds above **$2,860**, a short-term retracement to **$2,900 - $2,920** may occur.
- **Target: $2,900 - $2,920** before another decline.
- **Confirmation:** A **bullish breakout above $2,875**.

---

## **3. Trading Plan**
### **Sell Setup: (Primary Trade - 70% Probability)**
- **Entry:** $2,875 - $2,885.
- **SL:** $2,905 (Above resistance).
- **TP1:** $2,850 (First liquidity level).
- **TP2:** $2,840 (Weak low).
- **TP3:** $2,825 (Major demand zone).
- **Risk-Reward Ratio:** 1:4.

### **Buy Setup: (Countertrend - 30% Probability)**
- **Entry:** $2,860 - $2,865.
- **SL:** $2,850 (Below weak low).
- **TP1:** $2,880 (Short-term equilibrium).
- **TP2:** $2,900 (Key supply zone).
- **Risk-Reward Ratio:** 1:3.

---

## **4. Final Trade Execution Summary:**
| Trade Type | Entry | Stop-Loss | Take-Profit 1 | Take-Profit 2 | Take-Profit 3 | R:R |
|------------|------|-----------|---------------|---------------|---------------|-----|
| **Sell Setup** | $2,875 - $2,885 | $2,905 | $2,850 | $2,840 | $2,825 | 1:4 |
| **Buy Setup** | $2,860 - $2,865 | $2,850 | $2,880 | $2,900 | - | 1:3 |

---

## **📌 Additional Execution Tips:**
- **Use M5/M15 for precise entries.**
- **Wait for confirmation candles before entering.**
- **Avoid entering trades during high-impact news releases.**
- **Risk per trade:** 1-2% of capital for optimal drawdown control.