RUMORS OF AN LBMA STOCK OUT, FOR 8-MIN BAR CONTINOUS COVERAGE
This draft is the base case for route to 3000 and eventually 4000 as discussed in closing notes of "RUMORS OF A PIVOT REQUIEM PART 3". In "continuous notes", this is a sample of 8-min bar continuous coverage towards "LAST ENTRY FOR 3850" period, full stop. Odds favor blue box over yellow box right now about 2-1 to 3-1 .
What is "8-min bar continuous coverage"? It is continuous route drafting three to six times per day with binary outcomes for specific windows where routes diverge on an intermediate basis. That is to say, we are going to 3000 and 4000, that is obvious. But HOW WE GET THERE or the shape of price action on a month to month basis can vary significantly and with meaningful impact on your bottom line if you are not a "buy and hold to the very end" gold bug.
My resolution to this problem is continuous coverage on an 8-min bar basis, updated three to six times a day in order to efficiently cover all the possible unknowns on the way to 4000. This group goes live 02/14/2025. I will add notes to this as we go.
What is "8-min bar continuous coverage"? It is continuous route drafting three to six times per day with binary outcomes for specific windows where routes diverge on an intermediate basis. That is to say, we are going to 3000 and 4000, that is obvious. But HOW WE GET THERE or the shape of price action on a month to month basis can vary significantly and with meaningful impact on your bottom line if you are not a "buy and hold to the very end" gold bug.
My resolution to this problem is continuous coverage on an 8-min bar basis, updated three to six times a day in order to efficiently cover all the possible unknowns on the way to 4000. This group goes live 02/14/2025. I will add notes to this as we go.
Nota
8-MIN BAR CONTINUOUS COVERAGE SAMPLE #001:
1) first, in last notes of "RUMORS OF A PIVOT REQUIEM PART 3", I stated"
>> JANUARY 30TH, 2025 - SO HERE'S WHAT WE KNOW AND WHAT WE CAN DO ABOUT IT
>> 1) first we should hit 2830-2850 before retracing to 2710 area
>> 2) then we move for 3000, and eventually 4000
>> 3) this is only going to work if I cover it 8-min bar 3-6 times a day
>> 4) which I will do ....
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2) so we hit 2818 all time high this morning and it looks like this right now: Nota
3) so in chart above, like that dark blue
4) will add more later
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5) in chart above, WHATEVER THIS LOW IS
6) IT MUST BE BOUGHT IF YOU DO NOT HAVE A LONG TERM POSITION
7) meaning buy and hold to 3850-4100
8) because even if somehow reverses to yellow route
9) price will move above 2800 again
10) we can manage that later
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1/31/25, 11:51 AM ET, New York time, other notes
1) in chart at top, the oval is where the last decision for yellow route come in to play
2) this is why I left yellow route in, to manage the possible shift back down later
3) if prices fail at 2850 in February
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4) in which case, the added momentum would neutralize the drop and force a very long sideways stall
5) like this:
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6) but until then, blue is base case and HUGE favorite over that scenario Nota
01/31/25, 3:11 PM ET, that look, looks like this now:
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7) in chart above, the unknown is how much vol for this spot??
8) because this blue line should get hit:
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5) THERE IS ONE BLIND SPOT ... that is if the checkdown reaches 2665
6) in which case the first move must look like this:
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7) in chart above, on an 11-min bar basis, I CANNOT CALL IT UNTIL I SEE THE LOOK AT 2765
8) and I don't even know if IT WILL HIT 2765
9) but if it does AND STALL PAST THE CHANNEL...
10) odds would favor a move 2723
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11) so it's 2800.01 as I type at 3:54 PM ET
12) and my gut say we are about to drop hard to 2720 and eventually hitting 2695
13) I would really like to see 2665 BUT IT'S NOT OBVIOUS WE WILL GET THAT
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14) so the deal breaker for this binary is 2765 to 2775
15) PRICE IS FAVORED TO HIT 2775 AND BOUNCE
16) but if price reaches for 2765, then yellow is favored over blue
17) and we are back to a slightly different yellow route than before
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18) 01/31, 6:32 PM ET, blue route is favored over delayed yellow route
19) and I do not have any reasons to think the two routes are close (in probability)
20) in fact, blue is favored, BY A LOT...
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21) that means:
a) bigger sideways to up zig zags
b) and once at roughly 2828-2838, retrace to 2715-2725
c) zig zag a bit
d) all the way up to 3000 by end of March or VERY EARLY IN APRIL
e) so off top of my head 03/27-04/03
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SUNDAY, 02/02/25, 6:33 PM ET, NY time, so then:
1) in chart above, that's what the route looks like know
2) this means that what originally looked like a double top, then triple top...
3) now looks like an extended quad top
4) with the 2715 low coming 02/20 or later
5) no other plans have changed EXCEPT:
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6) in chart above, we can eliminate yellow route now, it's all blue
7) EXCEPT WHERE THE YELLOW OVAL IS BETWEEN 5/20 AND 6/20
8) it's not obvious we can eliminate a check (or two checks) of 2635
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9) but we will cross that bridge if and when
10) our singular goal right now is buy 2715-ish and sell 3050-ish
11) between 2/20 and 4/05
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10:49 PM ET, IN CHART ABOVE: 2773.XX about 12 hours early and what that means:
1) so at this point in time, BLUE IS FAVORED WITHOUT A DOUBT
2) but scroll up this page up about 4-5 charts
3) and I discussed that route to 2727 on Friday afternoon
4) it's still a massive dog to blue route
5) but IF UNDER 2770 FOR A WHILE AND BREACHING THAT CHANNEL...
6) for a 3 hours or longer
7) then watch out for that route that I discussed end of Friday
8) again, my call is blue
9) but I am not up over night to "make the call as odds change"
10) good night
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