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PREPWORK FOR 23 HOURS ONLY, THROUGH 10/06

HEADER - This is a follow up to previous work.

SUMMARY - So Thursday night and Friday should go like this.... sigh...

DETAILS - Please see previous work for how we got here.

NOTES - Will add with time.

Nota

10/05 5:48 PM ET. This is listed as long because:

Nota

1) for chart above:
2) so if if if if if if if .... sigh
3) if this 23 hour piece hits....
4) regression trend say we get all of it back to 19xx by 10/13

Nota

5) and if if if if if ....
6) sigh...
7) if we hit 1930 early like Tuesday 10/10
8) we have a shot at 1960-2000 on 10/13
9) if if if if if ...
10) if thisi 23 hour piece hits...
11) maybe I can try one more week

Nota

12) forgot to change the hilight to this:

Nota

13) I posted it in last work, forgot to make new one

Nota

10/05 6:18 PM ET
1) so that royal blue top is what 1823-24? whatever it is, looks like a strong short
2) from where I am sitting

Nota

3) 7:04 PM ET JUST SAW 1823.XX
4) this curve has about 45 to 60 min before it has to change the curve by going to 1827 and higher
5) or start the drawdown hard

Nota

6) 7:14 PM ET, the first move down on 1 min bars probably a fake, should still around 7:30
7) then double top again 1823-24 around 7:45
8) bear in mind that these notes are momentary observations only

Nota

9) 7:27 PM ET, 1822.51
10) here we go, this move for the next 15-30 minutes determines if this draft for next 23 hours has a good chance
11) ultimately, it is unknowable, but as far as I can see the odds... I think this post should be useful
12) but we will know soon
13) we will know soon

Nota

14) 7:34 PM ET so second top at 7:31-ish maybe not done...
15) maybe one more high soon
16) if it goes past 1824 and doesn't smash down hard instantly....
17) then this post would end immediately....
18) that's how these things work

Nota

19) 1822.59 at 7:37 PM ET... we will find out in 20 minutes or so what happen
20) I'm gonna cut out for a few hours
21) I will post more if it plays as expected
22) if not, then that's a wrap for this one

Nota

23) 8:07 PM ET 1821.XX
24) got the first move now
25) second move down should start by 8:30 PM

Nota

26) 10:07 PM ET:

Nota

a. for chart above
b. bulls want 1825 maybe 26, they will ultimately form a triple top
c. when they give up at midnight... price will come down and I still think 1805
d. but it might take to 8 AM

Nota

27) 10/06 12:31 AM ET, are bulls ok w/ just 1824.xx?
28) so that second top took too long
29) so the shape should be more like this:

Nota

30) for chart above:
31) I hate calling for V shape moves or their inverse, but it's what it looks like

Nota

32) so it's 12:41 AM ET, 1243.66
33) looks like 1805 and then 1842 round trip for a total of 60 pts in next 16-17 hours
34) let's see if this thing is worth your time

Nota

35) 12:48 AM, so the triple top should look like this on 1 min bars:

Nota

1:09 AM ET, now it looks like this:

Nota

a) for chart above:
b) in theory, it should go to 1813-1316 first before the third top which is around 1818-1821
c) and then to 1805

Nota

d) while its ok at 4 AM ET, we really need 1813-1816 at 3 AM ET

Nota

1:20 AM ET 1822.15, we need 1819.5 around 1:32-1:35 AM, so 15 min most.
a) it's too keep trend
b) bc we're behind trend
c) need to catch up

Nota

1:32 AM ET 1821.27... come on.... just 3 more minutes and 1.5 to go...
a) will it do it?
b) your guess good as mine

Nota

1:51 AM ET, 1820.97 as I am typing. I mean 1805 by 7 AM is a big as price goes even horizontal:

Nota

a) for chart above; so it needs to get ahead or under the line to the bottom from the top
b) in that way you can adjust for zig zag like here vs blue hilight:

Nota

2:11 AM, Going to bed. 1821.xx
a) I think odds favor 1808 over 1805...
b) but this move is running out of time for zig zag or stalling
c) which makes more unlikely....
d) so use tight stops

Nota

2:27 1818.xx about dam time...
a) that part was the really important part
b) now back to sleep

Nota

c) just in case:

Nota

d) for chart above:
e) now that it broke both the waves that it needed too...
f) it needs to hit the 3 bollingers in that lower circle
g) it's still slower than the hilight (which is projection of last likely path to 1805/1808
h) so it can't stall here 1818/1819
i) if it does and goes back up above 1821-22 next (and doesn't crash immediately, like in minutes)
j) then this route is finished...
k) so I can go to sleep w/o you being surprised by a surprise
l) that's how these things work.
m) that is they work until facts change
n) and price is fact

Nota

3:14 AM ET OUT OF TIME FOR THAT ZIG ZAG... ONLY ONE SCENARIO LEFT TO GET THERE...
a) so 1920 need to hold strong right now and turn this thing down...
b) if it breaks up... it's hard to see how this thing gets lower later...
c) meaning if goes high now, the morning low may be just 1818 again... if it's even that low
d) the only path left to 1805-1808 is keep going down now

Nota

e) like this:

Nota

3:22 AM ET 1820 held for the moment...
a) this needs to go to 1815 now
b) the longer it waits, the odds start to disappear

Nota

3:45 AM 1820.XX ... it maybe over for us...
a) on 5-sec bars I count 10, or 11 attempts to get past 1820
b) usually, when they try this many times, they win
c) so odds are starting to doubt that we get lower
d) we maybe an under dog now

Nota

e) to regain the odds, straight down to 1816-17 in minutes

Nota

f) 4:00 am 1821.xx, barring a miracle when I wake up
g) that's a wrap for this one
h) all done, and have a good Friday

Nota

4:23 AM wow... 1819.xx but from 1821.xx, maybe the bear gods are up late tonight...
a) j/k but I just realized this draft has NFP set as 7:30 AM ET... but it's actually 8:30 AM ET, 7:30 CT
b) in that sense, that means everything I just did for this post was an hour early
c) let's see what 60 minutes buy us?
d) nothing though, worth talking about unless this thing drops straight down

Nota

5:06 AM ... so here's what so weird ok...
1) by moving now up and preventing the V from happening
2) price is almost wanting to delay the hard drop AFTER NFP ... which means we are not done going down..
3) not at 1805 , maybe we keep going ... we will see

Nota

4) so here, replay this draft from a week earlier
5) we are for once SLOWER than the blue hilight..
6) by skipping the swing up V setup...
7) this implies we close tomorrow 1783 or 1775 or something like that...
8) so we will see

Nota

9) oh yeah here's that draft:

Nota

8:45 AM ET, 15 min after NFP,, 1810.xx
1) where I left off earlier was we are likely heading down and down and down
2) my eye is on 1783, 1775, 1767, 1757
3) my other eye is on 1845...
4) it's that kind of day

Nota

8:51 AM ET, REMEMBER THIS BLACK LINE???
1) so it's moving up and down crossing the blue line
2) so if under, it's aiming for red cross at.. again 1767 (it keeps coming up)
3) so this post that you are reading has us hitting the lows earlier, moving down earlier...
4) that "SET OF CURVES" that setup an 1835-1845 close isn't there anymore
5) the last notes I posted last night ....

Nota

6) at 5:06 AM .. talked about moving down a lot
7) and replay that draft from last week
8) it looks like it wants to got down there

Nota

9) so 9:00 sharp 1814.xx, I am going to be focused on my money today
10) so I can't give you much help
11) but becareful shorting above 1815, watch your back for massive bull comeback

Nota

12) last note from me this week at 9:12 AM ET & 1818.XX
13) so we are at THE DECISIVE MOMENT at the bear/bull debate
14) if bulls push past 1820 to 1825 AND HOLD, it's a massive bull day

Nota

15) to close out this post at 9:33 AM ET and just tagged 1825.xx
16) bears have one final move to push this all the way back down
17) but they need to do immediately the longer they way the faster the odds evaporate

Nota

POST WRAP UP - 10/06 10:01 AM ET - 1822.xx
a) this is bear's last chance to rug pull and win today
b) it is also bulls break out moment
c) everything gets decided right here
d) have a good one w/ everything
e) thank you for reading

Nota

10/06 9:30 AM ET.. .1828.75
1) there's just one thing missing from this bull move
2) a higher close like 1838-1845
3) why? bc the regressions look so weird, it needs to get straighten out
4) if it doesn't get straighten out and they wait for next week
5) anything could happen

Nota

6) replay the chart at top look at 3 boxes... crazy
7) I say this honestly... if anyone knows of a job that needs an analyst like this
8) please let me know soon, I really would like a job doing this if I could
9) other wise I'm outa here]
10) becareful for even more massive bear comeback today
11) it's not in the cards... but neither was the bull's hours ago

Nota

10/06 11:38 AM ET - EVERYTHING WRAP UP:
1) so I noted somewhere near the top of the page that...
2) if if if if if we get that 1838-1845 close
3) the next week SHOULD LOOK LIKE THIS:

Nota

4) first things can change, does change and will change all the time
5) please understand that
6) I don't know how I can make posts the coming week bc I am so busy w/ something else and absolutely CAN NOT GIVE YOU UPDATES
7) but that is the best I got "right this second" for you
8) basicallly if things pan out it should go like this:
a) nothing much Sunday
b) maybe even a revisit to 1830 after hitting 1845
c) there are TWO BIG MOVES
d) one should finish before Tuesday to 1880
e) the second one should finish Friday to 1920-1950
f) this is very useful information BUT CAN OBVIOUSLY CHANGE
g) just keep it in mind if you are trading
h) ESPECIALLY IF WE CLOSE TODAY 1838-1845

Nota

CORRECTION TO MOST RECENT NOTES ABOVE:

Nota

1) so the notes I said about MONDAY IS NOT CORRECT
2) odds of moving on Monday are low
3) so it looks like WED AND THU-FRI
4) it so happens that WED has PPI and FED MINUTES
5) THU has CPI
6) so there it is

Nota

7) again, take it as a JUST IN CASE GUIDE
8) I am going to be blank for at least a week so I do something

Nota

9) have a good one

Nota

10) some final notes
a) we don't need 1845 today
b) WE HAVE TO HAVE IT ON MONDAY
c) TUESDAY WOULD BE VERY LATE, so I would be suspicious

Nota

10/06 1:48 PM ET. This is same move just cleaned up and double checked:

Nota

a) for chart above:
b) my life's work has come to this moment
c) this is it, there's no more after this if I don't hit this perfect perfect
d) so FWIW, here are some notes:
e) first, nothing exciting until WED 10/11, 7AM
f) we will have two moves up on Wed, it's either 1880 or 1920
g) represented by different hilights above
h) we should close Friday1980-2000
i) I input 2 entries in the chart: 1 (entry 1) and 2A OR 2B (entry 2)
j) good luck with this, it's one of the best 3-day moves ever

Nota

AS A FINAL WARNING, IT'S INVERSE IS 1635, IS STILL IN PLAY TOO: maybe you should straddle

Nota

10/06 3:33 PM ET - OMG. OMG. OMG. This is gonna be SOOOO GOOOD....
1) again if if if if if if if if
2) if you've read through this post, I've already stated Thurs night why this move is coming
3) so we have held 1810 and hit 1835, I hope we close at the high
4) so now we need side-ways action through AT LEAST MON AND EARLY TUESDAY
5) once we have that "TOTAL SETUP", this thing is going to surprise EVERYONE ....
6) except if you've been reading about it since yesterday...
7) a 3 or 4 day move of almost 10%??? that's short term options fantasy come true
8) it's literally a 100-1 trade that almost never shows up
9) OMG OMG OMG ... I'm shaking a little bit

Nota

10/06 5:51 PM ET HOLD THE PHONE....
1) this move to to 1950-2000 I kept talking about
2) nevermind, I am only somwhat confident now after looking through everything
3) SO UNLESS I CONFIRM AGAIN... FORGET IT FOR NOW

Nota

10/07 7:19 PM ET - So I'm finished with this work. Effective immediately.
1) If you have a firm that needs an analyst like this, let me know by 11/04.
2) Otherwise, I am permanently done with this.
3) Have a good one.

Nota

4) I will check back to see by 11/04 when my acct gets wiped completely.

Nota

10/08 12:21 PM - NOTES OF A SETTLING MIND:
1) with the caveat that I am aware that my emotions are still in flux until at least mid January ...
2) let me try to separate what I see from how I feel
3) so, this week is a very crucial week for bull bear debate for ultimate fate of gold prices through 2031
4) bulls have a setup to break 2010 while bears have a setup for 1760
5) that difference is 1885
6) despite the number of ways that people you can handicap this move prior to decisive price action, the gold Gods always have away to make your system seems irrelevant
7) but handicap we must because we could not have a view without handicapping
8) Israel just declared war on Hamas, and by extension, its financiers in Hezbolla/Tehran
9) that maybe worth 1845 gap up at open in less than six hours

Nota

10) Monday is a bank holiday in U.S., but the market is still open with 1855 ceiling and after incoming retrace Tuesday should begin a move to 1885 at right BEFORE OR AFTER PPI release of Wed 8:30 AM ET
11) WED 2:00 PM ET is FED minutes and decisive price action either to 2010 isb or 1760 to close the week
12) from a clear eyed assessment of price action, if bulls want keep gold bull for 2024 and 2025 alive and realistic, they need to move to 2010
13) BUT EVERYTHING under 300 days' actions is screaming 1760 or even lower

Nota

14) well which is it?
15) the view going back 80 years says 2010, the view going back 300 trading days says 1760
16) my modeling says a straddle between at 1880-1885 should perform well in this situation even if price takes a THIRD SUPER ANNOYING ROUTE

Nota

17) so if Russia-Nato proxy war in Ukraine is only worth 300 move
18) in my mind then Israel-Iran rumors can't be worth more than 50 from here
19) so whatever DECISIVE news to be revealed in FED minutes should not change 300-day regression model
20) so that implies we move to 1885 and down to 1760
21) however, that doesn't necessarily mean gold bull is COMPLETELY DEAD

Nota

22) it just needs to find some crazy way to re-establish momentum ahead of 2024
23) so what does that look like?

Nota

24) 4 day bars:

Nota

26) 1 day bars:

Nota

27) didn't have time to get to 6H BARS
28) 5:25 PM ET have not considered this as a route to U.S. Iran war

Nota

29) 6:45 PM ET... GAPPED UP AND MORE..
30) gapped up as expected
31) I talked about U.S.-IRAN rumors before open
32) that was implying that rumors meant higher than expected gapped
33) nevertheless, I expect 1832 next..
34) that means next high is 1865 bc we already did 1855
35) rest is same as before
36) unless we have news of wider war... expectations should be same ...
37) 1885 and then 1760

Nota

10/08, 10:29 PM ET, 1851.XX
a) price has a setup to move to 1862, so up 10 pts
b) but it MUST DO IT or it will find a way to 1832 some time Monday after NY opens
c) whether or not it goes to 1862 in no way improves its bull odds to 2010 or its bear odds to 1760 at end of this incoming Friday 10/13

Nota

d) so at 10:31 PM ET and 1851.88 it should do something like thiss:

Nota

e) but with that said, you don't know until you know, so the binary is:

Nota

f) so the signal is between 11 and 11:30 PM ET
g) it should have no reason to go under 1847 if bulls are legit (for the immediate time frame)
h) if it does, it's trying to triple top and go back to 1832 after NY opens in the morning

Nota

10/09 6:06 AM ET
a) didn't do either move and continued sideways
b) so first, replay chart at top and zoom out
c) when I posted this in the first place I had a few more HUGE BOXES far right side as you zoom out
d) I even "skipped" a box in the middle
e) so yeah, I am aware of the "continuously moving up pattern"
f) last night I said if it didn't move to 1862 it would go to 1832
g) I still think that
h) I am going to point out that THE SHORT TERM TRENDS ARE FORMING CONTINUOUSLY UP PATTERN
i) but that pattern still involves check downs in between that react like stick save moments
j) for example: let's say it moves to 1832 at 10 AM after NY opens filling that gap
k) then by noon, or 2 hours later it would be at 1855-56 at a new relative high (to NFP low)

Nota

l) be aware of the the trends in play:

Nota

m) then this is from 12H bar:

Nota

n) so addding a vertical line at this at 10/13 (this Friday) at 1:30 PM ET gives you this:

Nota

o) THIS POST HAS ENDED. HERE IS NEXT ONE:

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