XAU/USD (Gold) – 2H Chart Analysis (May 16, 2025)

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🔍 Key Observations:
1. Descending Channel (Bearish Trendline)
Price has been respecting a downward-sloping parallel channel (red lines).

It recently broke out above the upper trendline of the descending channel, indicating a potential trend reversal or at least a corrective move upward.

2. Retest of Broken Structure
After breaking the channel, the price retested the previous structure area (highlighted grey zone) and showed rejection.

This structure overlaps with a previous support-turned-resistance zone, giving more weight to its importance.

3. Bullish Impulse and Pullback
A strong bullish candle broke out of the channel followed by a minor pullback.

The latest pullback seems to be retesting a demand zone, indicating possible bullish continuation.

4. Risk/Reward Setup
A long position has been marked:

Entry: Around $3,171

Stop Loss: Near $3,112.58

Take Profit: ~$3,435.91

This represents a high R:R trade, approximately 1:4.5 to 1:5.

🧠 Interpretation & Potential Scenarios:
✅ Bullish Bias (Primary)
Breakout from descending channel.

Retest of structure and rejection.

Demand zone holding.

Targeting previous swing highs near $3,435.

🟢 A close above $3,200+ could confirm bullish momentum continuation.

⚠️ Bearish Contingency
If price fails to hold $3,170 zone and breaks below $3,112, the setup would be invalidated.

Could resume downward trend inside the original descending channel.

🔄 Confluence Factors Supporting Bullish Trade:
Break and retest of descending channel.

Structure + demand zone convergence.

Strong bullish price action and volume during breakout.

Good risk-to-reward ratio.

Penafian

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