XAU/USD Weekly Analysis: A Challenging Market Ahead
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It's been a challenging few weeks for XAU/USD traders, especially for those of us who prefer swing trading with larger targets.
As a directional trader, I usually aim for 400-500 pips per trade, but the recent market conditions have tested my strategy. With the total range being only around 600 pips over the past couple of weeks, volatility has been limited from my point of view, making it tough to find those big moves.
NFP Data and Gold’s Reaction:
On Friday, the NFP data came in at 143K, lower than the market's expectations. This weaker-than-expected jobs number suggests that the Federal Reserve could feel more comfortable cutting interest rates in the near future, as economic data softens.
Immediately after the release, gold initially rallied, touching a key resistance level at its previous all-time high. However, the bullish momentum didn't hold. Gold soon dropped after hitting this level, signaling significant resistance.
Key Levels and Market Sentiment:
As I’ve mentioned in previous analyses, the resistance zone that gold initially touched after the NFP release was critical for any continuation of the uptrend. Despite some initial volatility, the price fell below an interim support zone around 2505, and by the end of Friday's session, gold had dipped below the critical 2500 level.
Technical Outlook: Bearish Signs on the Horizon?
Looking at the daily chart, Friday's session closed with a bearish engulfing pattern, a strong bearish indicator. As I mentioned, it also closed below both the 2505 interim support and the 2500 key level.
Zooming out to the weekly chart, we see the formation of a doji pattern, a classic sign of market indecision and potential reversal. This topping formation aligns with the bearish sentiment seen in shorter timeframes.
Strategy for the Upcoming Week:
With these factors in mind, I stayed out of the market on Friday, believing we are at a critical juncture. Moving forward, I plan to look for sell opportunities on rallies.
The 2505 resistance zone, which previously acted as support, could offer ideal selling opportunities if gold retests this level. If the price continues to move lower and approaches the 2475 support zone, my expectation is that this level will eventually give way.
In fact, my target for the next significant move in gold is between 2430 and 2440, where I believe the next major support lies.
Conclusion:
As we move into next week, the key will be to watch how gold reacts at these critical resistance and support zones. If bearish momentum continues, we could see further downside. As always, I’ll provide an updated analysis once the market opens on Monday.
Stay tuned, and enjoy the weekend!
Mihai Iacob
As a directional trader, I usually aim for 400-500 pips per trade, but the recent market conditions have tested my strategy. With the total range being only around 600 pips over the past couple of weeks, volatility has been limited from my point of view, making it tough to find those big moves.
NFP Data and Gold’s Reaction:
On Friday, the NFP data came in at 143K, lower than the market's expectations. This weaker-than-expected jobs number suggests that the Federal Reserve could feel more comfortable cutting interest rates in the near future, as economic data softens.
Immediately after the release, gold initially rallied, touching a key resistance level at its previous all-time high. However, the bullish momentum didn't hold. Gold soon dropped after hitting this level, signaling significant resistance.
Key Levels and Market Sentiment:
As I’ve mentioned in previous analyses, the resistance zone that gold initially touched after the NFP release was critical for any continuation of the uptrend. Despite some initial volatility, the price fell below an interim support zone around 2505, and by the end of Friday's session, gold had dipped below the critical 2500 level.
Technical Outlook: Bearish Signs on the Horizon?
Looking at the daily chart, Friday's session closed with a bearish engulfing pattern, a strong bearish indicator. As I mentioned, it also closed below both the 2505 interim support and the 2500 key level.
Zooming out to the weekly chart, we see the formation of a doji pattern, a classic sign of market indecision and potential reversal. This topping formation aligns with the bearish sentiment seen in shorter timeframes.
Strategy for the Upcoming Week:
With these factors in mind, I stayed out of the market on Friday, believing we are at a critical juncture. Moving forward, I plan to look for sell opportunities on rallies.
The 2505 resistance zone, which previously acted as support, could offer ideal selling opportunities if gold retests this level. If the price continues to move lower and approaches the 2475 support zone, my expectation is that this level will eventually give way.
In fact, my target for the next significant move in gold is between 2430 and 2440, where I believe the next major support lies.
Conclusion:
As we move into next week, the key will be to watch how gold reacts at these critical resistance and support zones. If bearish momentum continues, we could see further downside. As always, I’ll provide an updated analysis once the market opens on Monday.
Stay tuned, and enjoy the weekend!
Mihai Iacob
Dagangan aktif
XauUsd entered my sell zone and started to drop.
Hopefully we will have a close under 2495 for confirmation
Dagangan ditutup secara manual
Closed at B.E
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