An Unharmonious Outlook for the New Week

5 hari lalu

Gold Bullish? Sure, go ahead, but let me explain where we are and so on... 🤔

1. Newswise 📰

Tariffwar:
Trade tensions between the U.S. and China have intensified following President Trump's tariff hikes. The U.S. increased tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%, while China retaliated with tariffs up to 125% on U.S. goods. Despite these escalations, both countries have engaged in high-level negotiations in Geneva, aiming to de-escalate the situation. However, a recent abrupt withdrawal by the Chinese delegation has cast doubt on the progress of these talks. Analysts caution that even if an agreement is reached, it may offer only temporary relief, leaving markets exposed to prolonged trade tensions.

Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates:
President Donald Trump has been vocal in his criticism of the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, calling Fed Chair Jerome Powell a “fool” for not lowering them. 😡 Trump argues that with falling energy prices, stable employment, and low inflation, the Fed should cut rates to stimulate economic growth. 📉

The Federal Reserve, however, remains cautious. 🏦 Officials have expressed concerns that recent tariffs could increase inflation, making premature rate cuts risky. They emphasize the need for clearer economic data before making further policy adjustments. 🧐

In summary: While Trump pushes for immediate cuts to boost the economy, the Fed is taking a measured approach, prioritizing long-term stability over short-term political pressure. ⚖️

War in Ukraine remains tense:
Western leaders, alongside President Zelensky, are calling for a 30-day ceasefire starting May 12. Russia has shown a willingness to negotiate but demands an end to Western military aid — a condition firmly rejected. 🚨

Conclusion: The coming days will be critical. A ceasefire could open the door to new peace efforts. If rejected, expect tougher sanctions and further escalation. 💥

India–Pakistan Conflict:
Tensions between India and Pakistan have escalated sharply following a militant attack on Indian tourists in Kashmir on April 22, 2025. India responded with airstrikes, prompting mutual accusations of missile and drone attacks. 💣 Despite a U.S.-brokered ceasefire announced on May 10, violations followed within hours. Both countries, nuclear-armed, have mobilized troops along the Line of Control. ⚔️ Global powers — including the U.S., U.K., China, and G7 — have urged restraint and offered to mediate. 🌍

2. Technicalwise 📊

1h Timeframe – Bearish Anti-Gartley Pattern


15m Timeframe – Bearish Anti-Butterfly Pattern


That’s not a sign of gold being bullish in the short term. 🚫

Let’s take a look at RSI values across timeframes:

- 5m – 31 – Down ⬇️
- 15m – 37 – Down ⬇️
- 30m – 43 – Down ⬇️
- 1h – 45 – Down ⬇️
- 4h – 46 – Down ⬇️
- 1d – 55 – Up ⬆️

Interpretation of RSI Values 🧐

5m to 4h (31 to 46 – all “Down”)
→ These low RSI values (below 50) across short- to mid-term timeframes indicate ongoing selling pressure and downward momentum. Although not yet in oversold territory (<30), this still signals relative weakness. ⚠️

1d (55 – “Up”)
→ On the daily chart, the RSI is above 50 and rising, suggesting a possible trend reversal or early signs of recovery — a bullish signal over the longer term. 📈

Overall Meaning 🧠
This points to short-term weakness within a broader potential uptrend. The market is soft on lower timeframes — likely in correction or consolidation — while the daily chart begins to show strength. It's a classic pullback setup in an uptrend. 🔄

Possible Strategy Consideration 💡
If you're leaning bullish, look for reversal signals on the smaller timeframes to align entries with the daily trend — such as RSI divergences or breakouts above local resistance. 📊

My Bias 🤔
Bearish sentiment dominates in the short term. Over the next week, I aim to enter short positions targeting $3,200. 📉
If sentiment shifts or key news emerges, a target of $3,400 becomes more realistic. 🚀

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This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly.

Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊

4 hari lalu

Nota

Trendline analysis further shows a visible downtrend.

A weak uptrend has formed since Friday, but I don't expect it to last.

Breaking above $3366 might stop the anti-butterfly and the bearish trend, but several signs point to a bearish bias.

A break below $3272 would confirm the bearish trend.

3 hari lalu

Dagangan aktif

First hit was $3207.790, expecting more downside in gold.



Next target: $3175. Trendline break could lead to $3000 ???

21 jam lalu

Dagangan ditutup: sasaran tercapai

Target reached, closed trade at 3168 on 3175, perfect ;-)

The downtrend is still ongoing, and I expect further downside, but this could change based on news regarding the Russia-Ukraine war.