Is Gold Preparing for a Breakout — or a Trap?

🟡 Is Gold Preparing for a Breakout — or a Trap? Let’s break down the latest market data 👇

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🟥 1. U.S. Inflation News (PPI & Core PPI)

Report Previous Forecast Actual
Monthly PPI 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Core PPI 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%

📉 Result: Very bearish for the U.S. dollar
→ Inflation is cooling
→ Fed may pause rate hikes
→ Interest rates could stabilize or drop
→ And gold loves that kind of setup 😍

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🟫 2. U.S. Crude Oil Inventory Report

Report Previous Forecast Actual
Crude Oil Inventories +7.07M –1.80M –3.85M

🟢 Result: Very bullish for oil
→ Energy demand is higher than expected
→ Inflation could creep back up due to rising oil prices
→ That makes investors run to gold as a hedge against inflation 🔥

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🧠 Technical & Market Outlook for XAU/USD:

📈 Gold pushed from $3,319 to $3,377
↩️ Now it’s in a pullback, testing Fibonacci levels:
• 38% retracement near $3,350
• 61% retracement near $3,339

📉 But… these pullbacks are happening with positive delta and absorption → which signals smart buying from below 👀

✅ Additional signs:
• VWAP is stable
• Volume is holding around the POC
• And macro data is clearly supporting upside momentum

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🎯 Trading Plan:

• ✅ Entry Zones: $3,350 or $3,339
• 🛑 Stop Loss: Below $3,319 (recent low)
• 🎯 TP1: $3,377
• 🎯 TP2: $3,392 – $3,400
• ⚠️ Watch for a breakout above $3,377 with strong volume — that would confirm the real move.

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🔄 Summary:

💥 Two major news events today are supporting gold:
1. Weak PPI = possible pause in rate hikes
2. Rising oil = renewed inflation risk

So gold is getting support from both angles.
But stay cautious — any surprise statement from the Fed or a sudden USD rally could change the game