3000 BY HALLOWEEN DRAFT 5, THE CALL
With total conviction in due diligence, I present you the first step in this rally, the move to 2540. Continuing from DRAFT 4, this move is cleaned up version of DRAFT 4, which is a late version of DRAFT 2. The details of "the call" are basically same as DRAFT 2, except for 7/15 high added to 2540. This is a difficult one addition, but apparently needed to sync everything. So I've gone over the reasoning for this call over and over, but at the risk of being repetitive:
1) gold is in a bull market
2) by cyclical averages of a bull market...
3) gold should be at all time high on 7/1 or 7/2
4) obviously, this is not going to happen
5) which means to make up for this
6) gold has to have a late BUT HIGHER rally
7) that rally is 2720 on 8/2
8) AND FURTHERMORE, must begin its NEXT RALLY early
9) but after 2720, the September check down is 2540
10) so the NEXT EARLY RALLY, should be to 3000
11) completed 10/31, Halloween
12) this is also 7 days ahead of the U.S. Presidential Election
13) if you start with trend maps under 100 days
14) you CANNOT ARRIVE AT THIS CONCLUSION
15) the obvious short term conclusion, orange arrow
16) in chart at top, points as a route to 2222 by Monday 7/1
17) but if you start at the long end and average your way down
18) then THIS IS ONLY CONCLUSION, 2720 by August 2nd
19) then reverse engineer with 'regression wave trend reconciliation'
20) and this move should reflect blue hi-lights in chart at top
21) very closely
22) my money is where my mouth is
23) I've sold all put hedges
24) and I own a series of 7/12 and 8/02 GC ITM OTM calls
25) if price pushes under 2294 again
26) I will pick up hedges
28) but remain in this trade for at least 28 hours from now
29) this the window in which price must break the blue line
30) and move into the triangle
31) striking 2350 this Friday
32) I've gotten more heat for calling this rally up then I've had
33) but I've tried harder this last 100 days than I ever had
34) in finishing development of my trend mapping methodology
35) but this is all I got, I can't try any harder
36) I've said before that I would finish what I start
37) this is THAT FINISH
38) I've given all I got in terms of waking hours in the last 17 days
39) and I've used every single tool I have at my disposal
40) if this doesn't work, I am at a loss to explain why it does not
41) besides the that my method is not good enough
42) I have "synced" this move with all trend waves and ratios
43) and while the move not in any trend map under 100 days
44) it passes the sync rule in that it works on every ratio of trend maps
45) with all that said, may this call make or break my career
1) gold is in a bull market
2) by cyclical averages of a bull market...
3) gold should be at all time high on 7/1 or 7/2
4) obviously, this is not going to happen
5) which means to make up for this
6) gold has to have a late BUT HIGHER rally
7) that rally is 2720 on 8/2
8) AND FURTHERMORE, must begin its NEXT RALLY early
9) but after 2720, the September check down is 2540
10) so the NEXT EARLY RALLY, should be to 3000
11) completed 10/31, Halloween
12) this is also 7 days ahead of the U.S. Presidential Election
13) if you start with trend maps under 100 days
14) you CANNOT ARRIVE AT THIS CONCLUSION
15) the obvious short term conclusion, orange arrow
16) in chart at top, points as a route to 2222 by Monday 7/1
17) but if you start at the long end and average your way down
18) then THIS IS ONLY CONCLUSION, 2720 by August 2nd
19) then reverse engineer with 'regression wave trend reconciliation'
20) and this move should reflect blue hi-lights in chart at top
21) very closely
22) my money is where my mouth is
23) I've sold all put hedges
24) and I own a series of 7/12 and 8/02 GC ITM OTM calls
25) if price pushes under 2294 again
26) I will pick up hedges
28) but remain in this trade for at least 28 hours from now
29) this the window in which price must break the blue line
30) and move into the triangle
31) striking 2350 this Friday
32) I've gotten more heat for calling this rally up then I've had
33) but I've tried harder this last 100 days than I ever had
34) in finishing development of my trend mapping methodology
35) but this is all I got, I can't try any harder
36) I've said before that I would finish what I start
37) this is THAT FINISH
38) I've given all I got in terms of waking hours in the last 17 days
39) and I've used every single tool I have at my disposal
40) if this doesn't work, I am at a loss to explain why it does not
41) besides the that my method is not good enough
42) I have "synced" this move with all trend waves and ratios
43) and while the move not in any trend map under 100 days
44) it passes the sync rule in that it works on every ratio of trend maps
45) with all that said, may this call make or break my career
Nota
7:13 PM, Why can it not be later, why must it be now?1) if price do not move up to 2350, while that window still exist for 24-28 hours or so
2) the different wave periods no longer align for a big rally
3) with the most likely route in this situation is IMMEDIATE DROP TO 2262
4) then 2222, but WITH NO DOUBLE REVERSAL SETUP
5) while that doesn't necessarily end the gold bull market
6) the scale of any possible bull market is a loooong and frustrating one
7) with no new high possible until next February
8) there would be no conviction in strong, continuing, or extended gold bull market
9) if you methodology is trend based
10) top in and rollover, is the FIRST OBVIOUS CONCLUSION
11) and the obvious conclusion is the path of least resistance
Nota
7:55 PM ET, BY THE WAY, I DO HAVE A SIGNAL.1) I am not going to go out without my guns firing
2) I have an excellent signal too
3) it's a complicated one, but he exact signal
4) for the exact situation
5) if it doesn't work, that just means my method sucks major league
6) but yeah, I am going in with guns blazing
Nota
Nota
Nota
6/27, 12: 37 AM ET, the window for moving to 2325-271) is open for about 12 hours
2) but that means getting to 2325 in 12 hours
3) NOT STARTING TO
4) so with expectation that first trip to the blue line gets rejected
5) price have "settled" long enough to move to 2306, like this:
Nota
Nota
6) making it up there just in time for 3 AM ET LBMA sell off7) so the the push to break up
8) would not begin for another 5-6 hours
9) getting to 2323-24, not 25-27, and first reaction there ...
10) is drop to 2310 where NY would close
11) this must happen for the setup to be valid
12) I don't think there's any room for wiggle here
13) so missing the window is VERY BIG PROBLEM FOR BULLS
14) I'm lights with several alarms for protection
15) have a good night
Nota
1:28 AM ET, 2298.XX, if you are playing this first move1) and you need a stop its 2293
2) OR JUST WAIT FOR THE BLUE LINE TO BREAK
3) no headache that way
Nota
2:19 AM, London opened1) never got 2306
2) that's a concern
3) why?
4) the first move fails, BUT IT SETS UP THE SECOND MOVE
5) is expected 3-4 hours out
6) so from raw number perspective odds of making this move have fallen
7) at the same time, cam improve
8) if that move is made AFTER LONDON OPEN, which is 20 minutes ago
Nota
9) long story short, I need evidence soon10) if not, I have to cut AWAY AND WAIT IT OUT
11) I can always get back in when it's obvious and safer
12) thought I had conviction in due diligence
13) cut off a position when it's not working IS DUE DILIGENCE
14) I'm gonna be up with this one
Nota
5:52 AM, 2312.XX above the blue line1) two charts above
2) the one that I talked about he first black line
3) in between the blue line and first black line are two levels
4) that seems like it would get sold
a) 2317-18
b) 2323-24
5) it's very unlikely to be smooth way up like this
6) the target for all of NY was only going to be 2324
7) so there's lots of time left for intraday zig zag
Nota
8) obvious it's 13 as I am typing so 17 is obviously next9) WHAT IS NOT OBVIOUS IS WHEN 2324 GETS HIT
10)) it's very deceiving
11) but if bulls want to get past 2317 to 2324
12) they only have until 8 to 8:15 to do this
13) and it's almost six, so 135 minutes
14) before the selling zone hits
15)that's pretty much all for notes until NY close
16) bc I can't see bulls breaking 2324 until Tokyo tonight
Nota
6:37, yeah morning top should be 17-18.5 maxa) probably drop 10-12 points
b) and then NY afternoon pushes 2323-2324
c) fail the first time
d) so NY close 2315 give or take
Nota
10:16, skipping revtraces makes me a bit worried, but should still make 2355 tomorrow.Nota
10:20, I'm going back to sleep.Nota
10:27, AM ET. NOTES:1) we have a shot at making 2355 tonight
2) this shifts the trend maps
3) anyway, this means the route need adjustment for a quicker way up
4) so DRAFT 5B
Nota
11:19 AM and just scratched 2330.xx moments ago.1) obviously faster than I thought it could
2) so first replay chart above and look at that pattern
3) then look at the chart that is 2 charts above here
4) now then consider:
Nota
5) the light hi-light was what I had last night6) the curves have shifted in-ward
7) which makes the move faster
8) but still in the realm of that pattern
9) but WHAT IT IS DOING is giving us a strong chance
10) of 2450 on 7/5
11) instead of "maybe 2400-2430" tight squeeze
12) that is all, nothing else major AT THIS TIME
Nota
11:40, the other option is it slows down to base case12) which is probably more likely given the tight compression in this area
13) yeah, it's hard to make 2355 as is
14) it's more like 52-53
15) and it's hard to tonight as is
16) so maybe nothing changes forward, won't know until London
Nota
17) IF IT DOES CHANGE... most likely shift is simple up shift like this:Nota
THIS DRAFT IS FINISHED, HERE IS 5B:
Penerbitan berkaitan
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.