Emas Semerta / Dolar A.S.Singkat
MQP PRESENTS - TO SUM IT UP DRAFT 5
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HEADER - This is the "modified orange route" from DRAFT 4.
SUMMARY - Please read previous posts, links below, for background.
DETAILS - Continuing from last post, "RUMORS OF A PIVOT PART 2":
1) if you straddled options ahead of FOMC, you're doing fine
2) if you waited for it to break 1670 before entering, well it didn't
3) I stated that if it swings down, we are going back to the bearish route (orange) from DRAFT 4
4) so this is that route
5) I left in the light blue route from "RUMORS OF A PIVOT PART 2" because it is statistically live, roughly 30% right now
6) the next decision point is NFP Friday (tomorrow) at 8:30 AM ET
7) odds now favor bear route but NOT CONVINCINGLY
8) if we head lower ahead of non-farm payrolls tomorrow, this increases odds for bears, but only moderately unless 1607 breaks
9) even if we break 1615 and head to 1607, as long as 1607 holds until NFP, a move up is still statistically significant
NOTES FROM ADP & FOMC YESTERDAY:
1) from what I read, the statement released favored bulls
2) but word is that Powell was full hawk during the presser
3) the updated ADP model numbers from yesterday showed labor market STRENGTHNED
4) I don't see a reason for a bullish move unless you are betting back to back SURPRISE-SURPRISE
5) example: NFP shows -300k loss of jobs in the morning (for shock) and then a leading FED speaker responds immediately...
6) by saying, "we may have enough yet to slow our roll...", something like that
7) ADP results say this is doubtful (but ADP and NFP do not correlate) and...
8) POWELL seemed like a hard-ass yesterday.
9) so there it is...
AND FINALLY...
1) this thing is going to break one way or the other HARD...
2) there IS NO MIDDLEGROUND
SUMMARY - Please read previous posts, links below, for background.
DETAILS - Continuing from last post, "RUMORS OF A PIVOT PART 2":
1) if you straddled options ahead of FOMC, you're doing fine
2) if you waited for it to break 1670 before entering, well it didn't
3) I stated that if it swings down, we are going back to the bearish route (orange) from DRAFT 4
4) so this is that route
5) I left in the light blue route from "RUMORS OF A PIVOT PART 2" because it is statistically live, roughly 30% right now
6) the next decision point is NFP Friday (tomorrow) at 8:30 AM ET
7) odds now favor bear route but NOT CONVINCINGLY
8) if we head lower ahead of non-farm payrolls tomorrow, this increases odds for bears, but only moderately unless 1607 breaks
9) even if we break 1615 and head to 1607, as long as 1607 holds until NFP, a move up is still statistically significant
NOTES FROM ADP & FOMC YESTERDAY:
1) from what I read, the statement released favored bulls
2) but word is that Powell was full hawk during the presser
3) the updated ADP model numbers from yesterday showed labor market STRENGTHNED
4) I don't see a reason for a bullish move unless you are betting back to back SURPRISE-SURPRISE
5) example: NFP shows -300k loss of jobs in the morning (for shock) and then a leading FED speaker responds immediately...
6) by saying, "we may have enough yet to slow our roll...", something like that
7) ADP results say this is doubtful (but ADP and NFP do not correlate) and...
8) POWELL seemed like a hard-ass yesterday.
9) so there it is...
AND FINALLY...
1) this thing is going to break one way or the other HARD...
2) there IS NO MIDDLEGROUND
Nota
NOTES 1) this route would make late DECEMBER A PERFECT PERFECT SHORTNota
NOTES 2) update at 7:02 AM, 90 min ahead of NFP at 1650, bull route better than yesterday but still a dogNOTES 3) generally speaking, more sideways action needed for short term curves to re-position for break-out
NOTES 4) that usually means if price breaks down-trend-line at 1650, it would still face one more drop/retest before real break-out
Nota
NOTES 5) 7:11 AM ET: the most likely route is still down hard today, 1570 or somethingNOTES 6) 7:15 AM ET: imho, bull route needs more sideways action first
NOTES 7) as long as 1615 area holds, the longer we go sideways, the better the odds of a move up; for example - if we go sideways for 6 months, odds of NEW ALL TIME HIGH is at least 1/3
NOTES 8) to sum it up, I don't see a trade worth trading until December at the earliest (looking for at least a semi-perfect short or long)
Nota
GO HERE IF WE GET FOLLOW THROUGH TO 1720:
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