XAU/USD January 2025 Trend
If you know me from mind you know my strategy and trading style doesn't really look at HTF but here it is, what could January hold for us on H4.
The market is in a consolidation phase, with indecisive candles and no clear directional bias.
Price appears to be trading within a defined range, with resistance near 2640 and support near 2600
A large imbalance remains below the current price all the way to 2580, which may act as a magnet for liquidity.
Daily Key Levels:
Upside:
2640: Immediate resistance and previous high.
2680: Key resistance level near the December high.
2740-2760: Unfilled gap above; potential liquidity target.
Downside:
2600: Key support zone (gap fill and liquidity level).
2580: Secondary support below the gap.
2540: Weekly low and structural support.
Market is still neutral but slightly turning bearish:
The inability to break decisively above 2640 suggests a lack of bullish momentum.
The imbalance below at 2600 remains untested, increasing the likelihood of a retracement to fill it.
However, the higher timeframe structure (D1) still leans bullish, so any downside move might be corrective before resuming the uptrend.
Scenarios to look for:
1.Bullish Scenario:
If price reclaims 2640 with strong momentum, it could target the December high at 2680 or the unfilled gap above 2740-2760.
Look for a break-and-retest structure above 2640 to confirm bullish continuation.
2.Bearish Scenario:
A break below 2620 could lead to a move towards the 2600 gap fill.
If 2600 fails to hold, expect further downside to 2580 or even 2540 (weekly low).
The current consolidation reflects indecision in the market. Be cautious and wait for clear confirmations before taking a position. The gap below 2600 and resistance at 2640 are critical zones to watch.
Trade safe!!
The market is in a consolidation phase, with indecisive candles and no clear directional bias.
Price appears to be trading within a defined range, with resistance near 2640 and support near 2600
A large imbalance remains below the current price all the way to 2580, which may act as a magnet for liquidity.
Daily Key Levels:
Upside:
2640: Immediate resistance and previous high.
2680: Key resistance level near the December high.
2740-2760: Unfilled gap above; potential liquidity target.
Downside:
2600: Key support zone (gap fill and liquidity level).
2580: Secondary support below the gap.
2540: Weekly low and structural support.
Market is still neutral but slightly turning bearish:
The inability to break decisively above 2640 suggests a lack of bullish momentum.
The imbalance below at 2600 remains untested, increasing the likelihood of a retracement to fill it.
However, the higher timeframe structure (D1) still leans bullish, so any downside move might be corrective before resuming the uptrend.
Scenarios to look for:
1.Bullish Scenario:
If price reclaims 2640 with strong momentum, it could target the December high at 2680 or the unfilled gap above 2740-2760.
Look for a break-and-retest structure above 2640 to confirm bullish continuation.
2.Bearish Scenario:
A break below 2620 could lead to a move towards the 2600 gap fill.
If 2600 fails to hold, expect further downside to 2580 or even 2540 (weekly low).
The current consolidation reflects indecision in the market. Be cautious and wait for clear confirmations before taking a position. The gap below 2600 and resistance at 2640 are critical zones to watch.
Trade safe!!
Penafian
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